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A search for long‐range dependence and chaotic structure in Indian stock market

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  • Ritesh Kumar Mishra
  • Sanjay Sehgal
  • N.R. Bhanumurthy

Abstract

This study tests for the presence of nonlinear dependence and deterministic chaos in the rate of returns series for six Indian stock market indices. The overall result of our analysis suggests that the returns series do not follow a random walk process. Rather it appears that the daily increments in stock returns are serially correlated and the estimated Hurst exponents are indicative of marginal persistence in equity returns. Result from the test of independence on filtered residuals suggests that the existence of nonlinear dependence, at least to some extent, can be attributed to the presence of conditional heteroskedasticity. It appears, therefore, that low order GARCH‐type models can adequately explain some, but not all, of the observed nonlinear dependence in the data. Further, we find very little evidence to support the proposition that returns are generated by a chaotic system. Only in two out of six cases the results are supportive of sensitive dependence on initial condition, which indicates chaos. Presence of chaos in market indices implies that profitable nonlinearity based trading rules may exist at least in the short‐run. Finally, fairly contrary to the findings of previous studies, rejection of random walk hypothesis offers some possibility of returns predictability.

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  • Ritesh Kumar Mishra & Sanjay Sehgal & N.R. Bhanumurthy, 2011. "A search for long‐range dependence and chaotic structure in Indian stock market," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 20(2), pages 96-104, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:revfec:v:20:y:2011:i:2:p:96-104
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rfe.2011.04.002
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    2. A. K. M. Amanat Ullah & Fahim Imtiaz & Miftah Uddin Md Ihsan & Md. Golam Rabiul Alam & Mahbub Majumdar, 2021. "Combining Machine Learning Classifiers for Stock Trading with Effective Feature Extraction," Papers 2107.13148, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    3. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Gupta, Rangan, 2019. "Chaos in G7 stock markets using over one century of data: A note," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 304-310.
    4. Ivani Mausumi Bora & Manoj Kumar, 2017. "Long Term Dynamics of Indian ADRs Market: The Case of Persistence and Irregular Cycles," Accounting and Finance Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 6(2), pages 1-71, May.
    5. Tsionas, Mike G. & Michaelides, Panayotis G., 2017. "Neglected chaos in international stock markets: Bayesian analysis of the joint return–volatility dynamical system," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 482(C), pages 95-107.
    6. Tsionas, Mike G. & Michaelides, Panayotis G., 2017. "Bayesian analysis of chaos: The joint return-volatility dynamical system," MPRA Paper 80632, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Shalini, Velappan & Prasanna, Krishna, 2016. "Impact of the financial crisis on Indian commodity markets: Structural breaks and volatility dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 40-57.
    8. Gu, Rongbao & Xiong, Wei & Li, Xinjie, 2015. "Does the singular value decomposition entropy have predictive power for stock market? — Evidence from the Shenzhen stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 439(C), pages 103-113.
    9. Krishnankutty, Raveesh & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2011. "Are the Bombay stock Exchange Sectoral indices of Indian stock market cointegrated? Evidence using fractional cointegration test," MPRA Paper 48590, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Dec 2011.
    10. Vogl, Markus, 2022. "Controversy in financial chaos research and nonlinear dynamics: A short literature review," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    11. Jian Zhou & Gao-Feng Gu & Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Xiong Xiong & Wei Chen & Wei Zhang & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2017. "Computational Experiments Successfully Predict the Emergence of Autocorrelations in Ultra-High-Frequency Stock Returns," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 50(4), pages 579-594, December.
    12. Xiao, Weilin & Zhang, Weiguo & Zhang, Xili & Chen, Xiaoyan, 2014. "The valuation of equity warrants under the fractional Vasicek process of the short-term interest rate," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 394(C), pages 320-337.
    13. Ayan Bhattacharya & Rudra Sensarma, 2013. "Non-linearities in Emerging Financial Markets: Evidence from India," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 2(2), pages 165-175, July.
    14. Juan Benjamín Duarte Duarte & Juan Manuel Mascareñas Pérez-Iñigo, 2014. "¿Han sido los mercados bursátiles eficientes informacionalmente?," Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, June.
    15. Chatterjee, Soumya & Mukherjee, Indranil & Barat, P., 2018. "Analysis of the behaviour of the detrended BSE sensex data," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 186-196.
    16. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Phouphet Kyophilavong, 2021. "Nonlinearities and Chaos: A New Analysis of CEE Stock Markets," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-13, March.
    17. Benjamin R Auer, 2016. "Pure return persistence, Hurst exponents and hedge fund selection – A practical note," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 17(5), pages 319-330, September.
    18. Chen, Shengming & Bouteska, Ahmed & Sharif, Taimur & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul, 2023. "The Russia–Ukraine war and energy market volatility: A novel application of the volatility ratio in the context of natural gas," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    19. Juan Benjamín Duarte Duarte & Juan Manuel Mascare?nas Pérez-Iñigo, 2014. "Comprobación de la eficiencia débil en los principales mercados financieros latinoamericanos," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi, November.
    20. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Gupta, Rangan, 2019. "Reprint of: Chaos in G7 stock markets using over one century of data: A note," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 315-321.
    21. Vamvakaris, Michail D. & Pantelous, Athanasios A. & Zuev, Konstantin M., 2018. "Time series analysis of S&P 500 index: A horizontal visibility graph approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 497(C), pages 41-51.
    22. BenSaïda, Ahmed & Litimi, Houda, 2013. "High level chaos in the exchange and index markets," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 90-95.
    23. Anagnostidis, Panagiotis & Emmanouilides, Christos J., 2015. "Nonlinearity in high-frequency stock returns: Evidence from the Athens Stock Exchange," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 421(C), pages 473-487.
    24. Aditi Singh & Madhumita Chakraborty, 2017. "Examining Efficiencies of Indian ADRs and their Underlying Stocks," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 18(1), pages 144-162, February.

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