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Call center arrival modeling: A Bayesian state‐space approach

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  • Tevfik Aktekin
  • Refik Soyer

Abstract

In this article, we introduce three discrete time Bayesian state‐space models with Poisson measurements, each aiming to address different issues in call center arrival modeling. We present the properties of the models and develop their Bayesian inference. In so doing, we provide sequential updating and smoothing for call arrival rates and discuss how the models can be used for intra‐day, inter‐day, and inter‐week forecasts. We illustrate the implementation of the models by using actual arrival data from a US commercial bank's call center and provide forecasting comparisons. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 58: 28–42, 2011

Suggested Citation

  • Tevfik Aktekin & Refik Soyer, 2011. "Call center arrival modeling: A Bayesian state‐space approach," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 58(1), pages 28-42, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:navres:v:58:y:2011:i:1:p:28-42
    DOI: 10.1002/nav.20436
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Athanassios N. Avramidis & Alexandre Deslauriers & Pierre L'Ecuyer, 2004. "Modeling Daily Arrivals to a Telephone Call Center," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(7), pages 896-908, July.
    2. Noah Gans & Ger Koole & Avishai Mandelbaum, 2003. "Telephone Call Centers: Tutorial, Review, and Research Prospects," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 5(2), pages 79-141, September.
    3. Weinberg, Jonathan & Brown, Lawrence D. & Stroud, Jonathan R., 2007. "Bayesian Forecasting of an Inhomogeneous Poisson Process With Applications to Call Center Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 1185-1198, December.
    4. James W. Taylor, 2008. "A Comparison of Univariate Time Series Methods for Forecasting Intraday Arrivals at a Call Center," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(2), pages 253-265, February.
    5. Lawrence Brown & Noah Gans & Avishai Mandelbaum & Anat Sakov & Haipeng Shen & Sergey Zeltyn & Linda Zhao, 2005. "Statistical Analysis of a Telephone Call Center: A Queueing-Science Perspective," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 36-50, March.
    6. Refik Soyer & M. Murat Tarimcilar, 2008. "Modeling and Analysis of Call Center Arrival Data: A Bayesian Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(2), pages 266-278, February.
    7. Haipeng Shen & Jianhua Z. Huang, 2008. "Interday Forecasting and Intraday Updating of Call Center Arrivals," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 10(3), pages 391-410, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ekin, Tahir & Aktekin, Tevfik, 2021. "Decision making under uncertain and dependent system rates in service systems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 291(1), pages 335-348.
    2. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    3. Tevfik Aktekin & Refik Soyer, 2012. "Bayesian analysis of queues with impatient customers: Applications to call centers," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 59(6), pages 441-456, September.
    4. Tevfik Aktekin & Nicholas G. Polson & Refik Soyer, 2020. "A family of multivariate non‐gaussian time series models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(5), pages 691-721, September.
    5. Tevfik Aktekin & Tahir Ekin, 2016. "Stochastic call center staffing with uncertain arrival, service and abandonment rates: A Bayesian perspective," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 63(6), pages 460-478, September.

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