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The Uzbek Growth Puzzle

Author

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  • Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer

Abstract

After the break-up of the Soviet Union, Uzbekistan’s output fell less than in any other former Soviet Republic, and growth turned positive in 1996/97. Given the country’s hesitant and idiosyncratic approach to reforms, this record has suprised many observers. This paper first shows that a standard panel model of growth in transition systematically underpredicts Uzbek growth from 1992-1996, confirming the view that Uzbekistan’s performance consitutes a puzzle. It then attempts to resolve the puzzle by appropriately extending the model. The main result is that Uzbekistan’s output performance was driven by a combination of low initial industrialization, its cotton production, and its self-sufficiency in energy.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 1998. "The Uzbek Growth Puzzle," IMF Working Papers 1998/133, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1998/133
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Richard Auty, 2003. "Natural resources and ‘gradual’ reform in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 255-266, November.
    2. Nauro F. Campos & Abrizio Coricelli, 2002. "Growth in Transition: What We Know, What We Don't, and What We Should," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-836, September.
    3. Islamov, Bakhtior, 2001. "Central Asia: Problems of External Debt and Its Sustainability," Discussion Paper Series a413, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    4. Boradman, Harry G., 2000. "Competition, Corporate Governance, and regulation in Central Asia - Uzbekistan's structural reform challenges," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2331, The World Bank.
    5. Vakulchuk, Roman & Irnazarov, Farrukh, 2014. "Analysis of Informal Obstacles to Cross-Border Economic Activity in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 130, Asian Development Bank.
    6. Sergei Guriev & Barry W. Ickes, 2000. "Microeconomic Aspects of Economic Growth in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, 1950-2000," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 348, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    7. Popov, Vladimir, 2013. "Economic Miracle of Post-Soviet Space: Why Uzbekistan Managed to Achieve What No Other Post-Soviet State Achieved," MPRA Paper 48723, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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