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Price prospects in Western Europe for internationally traded fossil fuels until 2000

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  • Marian Radetzki

Abstract

A methodology for the long‐term assessment of prices is designed and applied to the international markets for coal, oil and natural gas and likely price developments between 1990 and 2000 are explored. The coal market will remain competitive, and the long‐term price will be determined by the total cost of marginal supply. The oil price will be set, even in the long term, substantially above the competitive level, by those who control the exceptional Middle East resource base. The traditional link between gas and oil prices will erode in the 1990s, and gas will be independently and competively priced by the turn of the century. Resource constraints are not expected to push prices upwards within the time horizon of the study. The relative price of gas will fall over the forecast period, and its market share will increase as a consequence.

Suggested Citation

  • Marian Radetzki, 1991. "Price prospects in Western Europe for internationally traded fossil fuels until 2000," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(4), pages 292-301, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:natres:v:15:y:1991:i:4:p:292-301
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1477-8947.1991.tb00149.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Radetzki, Marian & Van Duyne, Carl, 1984. "The response of mining investment to a decline in economic growth : The case of copper in the 1970s," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-3), pages 19-45.
    2. M. A. Adelman, 1986. "The Competitive Floor to World Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 9-31.
    3. Radetzki, Marian, 1989. "Shocks : Plausible shocks in world energy in the 1990s," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 331-336, August.
    4. Allen, Myles R. & Christensen, John M., 1990. "Climate change and the need for a new energy agenda," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 19-24.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jan Bråten & Rolf Golombek, 1998. "OPEC's Response to International Climate Agreements," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(4), pages 425-442, December.
    2. Cathrine Hagem, 1994. "Cost-Effective Climate Policy in a Small Country," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 119-140.
    3. Radetzki, Marian, 1995. "Elimination of West European coal subsidies : Implications for coal production and coal imports," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 509-518, June.

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