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The efficacy and effect of racial profiling: A mathematical simulation approach

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  • Jack Glaser

    (University of California, Berkeley)

Abstract

Racial profiling-the use of race, ethnicity, or national origin by law enforcement officials to make judgments of criminal suspicion-is assessed in terms of its effect on targeted populations and on law enforcement efficiency. A mathematical simulation, comparing multiple profiling and non-profiling scenarios, is employed. This analysis indicates that racial profiling exacerbates incarceration disparities between groups whether or not the groups differ in criminality rates, and that the long-term effects of profiling in terms of criminal captures depend on the calibration of profiling rates to criminality rates. The highest long-term criminal capture rates appear to occur when stop rate ratios match, or are slightly below, criminality rate ratios between groups. When the possibility of a deterrent effect is modeled, profiling appears to yield fewer criminal captures and have little or no crime reduction effect, and may even increase overall crime rates. © 2006 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management

Suggested Citation

  • Jack Glaser, 2006. "The efficacy and effect of racial profiling: A mathematical simulation approach," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(2), pages 395-416.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jpamgt:v:25:y:2006:i:2:p:395-416
    DOI: 10.1002/pam.20178
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    References listed on IDEAS

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