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Volatility model applications in China's SSE50 options market

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  • Yeguang Chi
  • Wenyan Hao
  • Yifei Zhang

Abstract

We investigate the effectiveness of various volatility models using China's Shanghai Stock Exchange‐50 (SSE50) Index. Regarding in‐sample fit, the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) and the variants of the GARCH model perform much better than the autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model. However, we do not observe any significant asymmetric volatility response to past returns in the GJR–GARCH model. For out‐of‐sample forecasting of the future realized volatility, in five of the seven options we investigate, the GARCH volatility forecast outperforms the option implied volatility. We formulate a trading strategy by exploiting the spread between the GARCH volatility forecast and the option implied volatility, and show robust profits when applied to the SSE50 options.

Suggested Citation

  • Yeguang Chi & Wenyan Hao & Yifei Zhang, 2022. "Volatility model applications in China's SSE50 options market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(9), pages 1704-1720, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:42:y:2022:i:9:p:1704-1720
    DOI: 10.1002/fut.22294
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    1. Yao Wang & Jingmei Zhao & Qing Li & Xiangyu Wei, 2024. "Considering momentum spillover effects via graph neural network in option pricing," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(6), pages 1069-1094, June.
    2. Yanchu Liu & Chen Liu & Yiyao Chen & Xianming Sun, 2024. "Option‐Implied Ambiguity and Equity Return Predictability," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(9), pages 1556-1577, September.

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