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The effects of investor attention on commodity futures markets

Author

Listed:
  • Liyan Han
  • Ziying Li
  • Libo Yin

Abstract

This study utilizes the search volume for key terms on Google as a direct and timely proxy for investor attention in order to examine how attention impacts commodity futures prices, We provide significant evidence for attention's influence on 13 commodity futures and the interaction between attention and returns, even after controlling for important macroeconomic variables. We also examine the impact of investor attention on market efficiency. Results show that rising attention, on one hand, increases information efficiency and attenuates arbitrage opportunities, whereas, on the other hand, decreases market efficiency by facilitating herd behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Liyan Han & Ziying Li & Libo Yin, 2017. "The effects of investor attention on commodity futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(10), pages 1031-1049, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:37:y:2017:i:10:p:1031-1049
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    Cited by:

    1. Ming‐Hung Wu & Wei‐Che Tsai & Pei‐Shih Weng & Dan‐Yi Li, 2021. "Effects of investor attention in China's commodity futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(8), pages 1315-1332, August.
    2. Ramos, Sofia B. & Latoeiro, Pedro & Veiga, Helena, 2020. "Limited attention, salience of information and stock market activity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 92-108.
    3. Tsai, I-Chun & Chen, Han-Bo & Lin, Che-Chun, 2024. "The ability of energy commodities to hedge the dynamic risk of epidemic black swans," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    4. Piccoli, Pedro & de Castro, Jessica, 2021. "Attention-return relation in the gold market and market states," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    5. Smales, L.A., 2021. "Investor attention and global market returns during the COVID-19 crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    6. Dahmene, Meriam & Boughrara, Adel & Slim, Skander, 2021. "Nonlinearity in stock returns: Do risk aversion, investor sentiment and, monetary policy shocks matter?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 676-699.
    7. Sanjay Sehgal & Neharika Sobti & Florent Diesting, 2021. "Who leads in intraday gold price discovery and volatility connectedness: Spot, futures, or exchange‐traded fund?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(7), pages 1092-1123, July.
    8. Qingjie Zhou & Panpan Zhu & You Wu & Yinpeng Zhang, 2022. "Research on the Volatility of the Cotton Market under Different Term Structures: Perspective from Investor Attention," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-20, November.
    9. Fernandez-Perez, Adrian & Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Gonzalez-Fernandez, Marcos & Miffre, Joelle, 2020. "Fear of hazards in commodity futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    10. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Charteris, Ailie & Obojska, Lidia, 2023. "Do commodity markets catch a cold from stock markets? Modelling uncertainty spillovers using Google search trends and wavelet coherence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    11. González-Fernández, Marcos & González-Velasco, Carmen, 2020. "An alternative approach to predicting bank credit risk in Europe with Google data," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    12. de Castro, Jessica & Piccoli, Pedro, 2023. "Do online searches actually measure future retail investor trades?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    13. Jebabli, Ikram & Roubaud, David, 2018. "Time-varying efficiency in food and energy markets: Evidence and implications," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 97-114.
    14. John Hua Fan & Sebastian Binnewies & Sanuri De Silva, 2023. "Wisdom of crowds and commodity pricing," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(8), pages 1040-1068, August.
    15. Liu, Yuanyuan & Niu, Zibo & Suleman, Muhammad Tahir & Yin, Libo & Zhang, Hongwei, 2022. "Forecasting the volatility of crude oil futures: The role of oil investor attention and its regime switching characteristics under a high-frequency framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PA).
    16. Xu Gong & Mengjie Li & Keqin Guan & Chuanwang Sun, 2023. "Climate change attention and carbon futures return prediction," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(9), pages 1261-1288, September.
    17. Marcos González-Fernández & Carmen González-Velasco, 2019. "An approach to predict Spanish mortgage market activity using Google data," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 8(4), pages 209-214.
    18. Zhang, Yunhan & Ji, Qiang & Zhang, Dayong & Guo, Kun, 2024. "How does Shanghai crude oil futures affect top global oil companies: The role of multi-uncertainties," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    19. Chen, Zhongdong & Schmidt, Adam & Wang, Jin’ai, 2021. "Retail investor risk-seeking, attention, and the January effect," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    20. Jia, Boxiang & Shen, Dehua & Zhang, Wei, 2022. "Extreme sentiment and herding: Evidence from the cryptocurrency market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    21. Zhao, Jingmei & Gan, Qinyu, 2024. "The more the merrier? The impact of information overload on stock price synchronicity: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(PA).

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