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A simplified pricing model for volatility futures

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  • Brice Dupoyet
  • Robert T. Daigler
  • Zhiyao Chen

Abstract

We develop a general model to price VIX futures contracts. The model is adapted to test both the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) and the Cox–Ingersoll–Ross formulations, with and without jumps. Empirical tests on VIX futures prices provide out‐of‐sample estimates within 2% of the actual futures price for almost all futures maturities. We show that although jumps are present in the data, the models with jumps do not typically outperform the others; in particular, we demonstrate the important benefits of the CEV feature in pricing futures contracts. We conclude by examining errors in the model relative to the VIX characteristics. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 31:307–339, 2011

Suggested Citation

  • Brice Dupoyet & Robert T. Daigler & Zhiyao Chen, 2011. "A simplified pricing model for volatility futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(4), pages 307-339, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:31:y:2011:i:4:p:307-339
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Yu-Lun & Tsai, Wei-Che, 2017. "Determinants of price discovery in the VIX futures market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 59-73.
    2. Bujar Huskaj & Marcus Nossman, 2013. "A Term Structure Model for VIX Futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(5), pages 421-442, May.
    3. Sebastian A. Gehricke & Jin E. Zhang, 2020. "Modeling VXX under jump diffusion with stochastic long‐term mean," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(10), pages 1508-1534, October.
    4. Zhigang Tong, 2017. "Modelling VIX and VIX derivatives with reducible diffusions," International Journal of Bonds and Derivatives, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 3(2), pages 153-175.
    5. Long, Wen & Zhao, Manyi & Tang, Yeran, 2021. "Can the Chinese volatility index reflect investor sentiment?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    6. Xingguo Luo & Jin E. Zhang & Wenjun Zhang, 2019. "Instantaneous squared VIX and VIX derivatives," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(10), pages 1193-1213, October.

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