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The information content of the S&P 500 index and VIX options on the dynamics of the S&P 500 index

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  • San‐Lin Chung
  • Wei‐Che Tsai
  • Yaw‐Huei Wang
  • Pei‐Shih Weng

Abstract

Given that both S&P 500 index and VIX options essentially contain information about the future dynamics of the S&P 500 index, in this study, we set out to empirically investigate the informational roles played by these two option markets with regard to the prediction of returns, volatility, and density in the S&P 500 index. Our results reveal that the information content implied from these two option markets is not identical. In addition to the information extracted from the S&P 500 index options, all of the predictions for the S&P 500 index are significantly improved by the information recovered from the VIX options. Our findings are robust to various measures of realized volatility and methods of density evaluation. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark

Suggested Citation

  • San‐Lin Chung & Wei‐Che Tsai & Yaw‐Huei Wang & Pei‐Shih Weng, 2011. "The information content of the S&P 500 index and VIX options on the dynamics of the S&P 500 index," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(12), pages 1170-1201, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:31:y:2011:i:12:p:1170-1201
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    1. Bardgett, Chris & Gourier, Elise & Leippold, Markus, 2019. "Inferring volatility dynamics and risk premia from the S&P 500 and VIX markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(3), pages 593-618.
    2. Xin Zang & Jun Ni & Jing-Zhi Huang & Lan Wu, 2015. "Double-jump stochastic volatility model for VIX: evidence from VVIX," Papers 1506.07554, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2015.
    3. Sebastian A. Gehricke & Jin E. Zhang, 2020. "Modeling VXX under jump diffusion with stochastic long‐term mean," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(10), pages 1508-1534, October.
    4. Ackert, Lucy F. & Kluger, Brian D. & Qi, Li, 2019. "Implied volatility and investor beliefs in experimental asset markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 121-136.
    5. Marfatia, Hardik A., 2020. "Investors’ risk perceptions in the US and global stock market integration," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    6. Francine Gresnigt & Erik Kole & Philip Hans Franses, 2017. "Specification Testing in Hawkes Models," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 139-171.
    7. Thomas Kokholm & Martin Stisen, 2015. "Joint pricing of VIX and SPX options with stochastic volatility and jump models," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 16(1), pages 27-48, January.
    8. Yaw‐Huei Wang & Kuang‐Chieh Yen, 2018. "The information content of option‐implied tail risk on the future returns of the underlying asset," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 493-510, April.
    9. Dian‐Xuan Kao & Wei‐Che Tsai & Yaw‐Huei Wang & Kuang‐Chieh Yen, 2018. "An analysis on the intraday trading activity of VIX derivatives," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 158-174, February.
    10. Yi‐Wei Chuang & Wei‐Che Tsai & Ming‐Hung Wu, 2020. "The impact of net buying pressure on VIX option prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(2), pages 209-227, February.
    11. Xin Zang & Jun Ni & Jing-Zhi Huang & Lan Wu, 2017. "Double-jump diffusion model for VIX: evidence from VVIX," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 227-240, February.
    12. Andrew Papanicolaou & Ronnie Sircar, 2014. "A regime-switching Heston model for VIX and S&P 500 implied volatilities," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(10), pages 1811-1827, October.
    13. Chikashi Tsuji, 2016. "Does the fear gauge predict downside risk more accurately than econometric models? Evidence from the US stock market," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1220711-122, December.
    14. Imlak Shaikh & Puja Padhi, 2013. "On the Linkages among Ex-ante and Ex-post Volatility: Evidence from NSE Options Market (India)," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 14(3), pages 487-505, September.
    15. Pacati, Claudio & Pompa, Gabriele & Renò, Roberto, 2018. "Smiling twice: The Heston++ model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 185-206.
    16. Jin, Jiayu & Han, Liyan & Wu, Lei & Zeng, Hongchao, 2020. "The hedging effect of green bonds on carbon market risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    17. Athanasios P. Fassas & Nikolas Hourvouliades, 2019. "VIX Futures as a Market Timing Indicator," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-9, July.
    18. Puja Padhi & Imlak Shaikh, 2014. "On the relationship of implied, realized and historical volatility: evidence from NSE equity index options," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(5), pages 915-934, November.
    19. Javier Giner & Sandra Morini & Rafael Rosillo, 2016. "Optimal Prediction Periods for New and Old Volatility Indexes in USA and German Markets," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 527-549, April.
    20. Jack J. W. Yang & Chia-Hsing Huang & Chi-Hui Wang, 2013. "Nonlinear Relationships between Taiwan VIX Index and the Intraday Ordering Behavior of Stock Index Options," Business and Management Research, Business and Management Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 2(3), pages 68-80, September.
    21. Tseng, Tseng-Chan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chen, Mei-Ping, 2015. "Volatility forecast of country ETF: The sequential information arrival hypothesis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 228-234.
    22. Weiwei ZHANG & Tiezhu SUN & Yechi MA & Zilong WANG, 2021. "New Evidence on the Information Content of Implied Volatility of S&P 500: Model-Free versus Model-Based," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 109-121, December.
    23. Li, Wei-Xuan & Chen, Clara Chia-Sheng & French, Joseph J., 2015. "Toward an early warning system of financial crises: What can index futures and options tell us?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 87-99.
    24. Ren, Fei & Ji, Shen-Dan & Cai, Mei-Ling & Li, Sai-Ping & Jiang, Xiong-Fei, 2019. "Dynamic lead–lag relationship between stock indices and their derivatives: A comparative study between Chinese mainland, Hong Kong and US stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 513(C), pages 709-723.
    25. Xingguo Luo & Jin E. Zhang & Wenjun Zhang, 2019. "Instantaneous squared VIX and VIX derivatives," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(10), pages 1193-1213, October.

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