IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jforec/v42y2023i2p195-211.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Robust forecasting in spatial autoregressive model with total variation regularization

Author

Listed:
  • He Jiang

Abstract

In recent decades, feature selection has attracted great attention in data science due to curse of dimensionality, which arises in larger, complex, and heterogeneous data. However, existing researches of feature grouping on spatial autoregressive model are rare. To address this challenge, this paper investigates robust spatial autoregressive model with feature grouping and robust forecasting achieved automatically. The proposed novel methodology borrows strength from check loss function in quantile regression and total variation regularization. A simple‐to‐implement algorithm following double‐level alternative method of multipliers design is derived computationally. The empirical studies demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods via comparing with other competing forecasting techniques.

Suggested Citation

  • He Jiang, 2023. "Robust forecasting in spatial autoregressive model with total variation regularization," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 195-211, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:42:y:2023:i:2:p:195-211
    DOI: 10.1002/for.2900
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2900
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/for.2900?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chunrong Ai & Yuanqing Zhang, 2017. "Estimation of partially specified spatial panel data models with fixed-effects," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1-3), pages 6-22, March.
    2. Skevas, Ioannis, 2020. "Inference in the spatial autoregressive efficiency model with an application to Dutch dairy farms," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 283(1), pages 356-364.
    3. Ghaddar, Bissan & Naoum-Sawaya, Joe, 2018. "High dimensional data classification and feature selection using support vector machines," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 265(3), pages 993-1004.
    4. Jun Zhu & Hsin‐Cheng Huang & Perla E. Reyes, 2010. "On selection of spatial linear models for lattice data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 72(3), pages 389-402, June.
    5. Nazemi, Abdolreza & Heidenreich, Konstantin & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2018. "Improving corporate bond recovery rate prediction using multi-factor support vector regressions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 271(2), pages 664-675.
    6. Daehan Won & Hasan Manzour & Wanpracha Chaovalitwongse, 2020. "Convex Optimization for Group Feature Selection in Networked Data," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 32(1), pages 182-198, January.
    7. Martínez, Andrés & Schmuck, Claudia & Pereverzyev, Sergiy & Pirker, Clemens & Haltmeier, Markus, 2020. "A machine learning framework for customer purchase prediction in the non-contractual setting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 281(3), pages 588-596.
    8. Benítez-Peña, Sandra & Bogetoft, Peter & Romero Morales, Dolores, 2020. "Feature Selection in Data Envelopment Analysis: A Mathematical Optimization approach," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    9. Simsek, Serhat & Dag, Ali & Tiahrt, Thomas & Oztekin, Asil, 2021. "A Bayesian Belief Network-based probabilistic mechanism to determine patient no-show risk categories," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    10. Pace, R Kelley & Gilley, Otis W, 1997. "Using the Spatial Configuration of the Data to Improve Estimation," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 333-340, May.
    11. Fan J. & Li R., 2001. "Variable Selection via Nonconcave Penalized Likelihood and its Oracle Properties," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 1348-1360, December.
    12. Huang, Tao & Fildes, Robert & Soopramanien, Didier, 2014. "The value of competitive information in forecasting FMCG retail product sales and the variable selection problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(2), pages 738-748.
    13. Tianfa Xie & Ruiyuan Cao & Jiang Du, 2020. "Variable selection for spatial autoregressive models with a diverging number of parameters," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1125-1145, June.
    14. Kelejian, Harry H & Prucha, Ingmar R, 1998. "A Generalized Spatial Two-Stage Least Squares Procedure for Estimating a Spatial Autoregressive Model with Autoregressive Disturbances," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 99-121, July.
    15. Liangjun Su & Zhenlin Yang, 2007. "Instrumental Variable Quantile Estimation of Spatial Autoregressive Models," Development Economics Working Papers 22476, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    16. Lee, Chia-Yen & Cai, Jia-Ying, 2020. "LASSO variable selection in data envelopment analysis with small datasets," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    17. Tsan‐Ming Choi & Stein W. Wallace & Yulan Wang, 2018. "Big Data Analytics in Operations Management," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 27(10), pages 1868-1883, October.
    18. Carrizosa, Emilio & Martín-Barragán, Belén & Morales, Dolores Romero, 2011. "Detecting relevant variables and interactions in supervised classification," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 260-269, August.
    19. Xiangyu Chang & Yinghui Huang & Mei Li & Xin Bo & Subodha Kumar, 2021. "Efficient Detection of Environmental Violators: A Big Data Approach," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(5), pages 1246-1270, May.
    20. Guo, Mengzhuo & Zhang, Qingpeng & Liao, Xiuwu & Chen, Frank Youhua & Zeng, Daniel Dajun, 2021. "A hybrid machine learning framework for analyzing human decision-making through learning preferences," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    21. Aytug, Haldun, 2015. "Feature selection for support vector machines using Generalized Benders Decomposition," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 244(1), pages 210-218.
    22. Cui, Hailong & Rajagopalan, Sampath & Ward, Amy R., 2020. "Predicting product return volume using machine learning methods," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 281(3), pages 612-627.
    23. Hui Zou & Trevor Hastie, 2005. "Addendum: Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(5), pages 768-768, November.
    24. Hui Zou & Trevor Hastie, 2005. "Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(2), pages 301-320, April.
    25. Ming Yuan & Yi Lin, 2006. "Model selection and estimation in regression with grouped variables," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 68(1), pages 49-67, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xuan Liu & Jianbao Chen, 2021. "Variable Selection for the Spatial Autoregressive Model with Autoregressive Disturbances," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-20, June.
    2. Fang Lu & Jing Yang & Xuewen Lu, 2022. "One-step oracle procedure for semi-parametric spatial autoregressive model and its empirical application to Boston housing price data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(6), pages 2645-2671, June.
    3. Bottmer, Lea & Croux, Christophe & Wilms, Ines, 2022. "Sparse regression for large data sets with outliers," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 297(2), pages 782-794.
    4. Jiang, He & Luo, Shihua & Dong, Yao, 2021. "Simultaneous feature selection and clustering based on square root optimization," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 289(1), pages 214-231.
    5. Gambella, Claudio & Ghaddar, Bissan & Naoum-Sawaya, Joe, 2021. "Optimization problems for machine learning: A survey," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 290(3), pages 807-828.
    6. Jiawei Hou & Yunquan Song, 2022. "Interquantile shrinkage in spatial additive autoregressive models," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 31(4), pages 1030-1057, December.
    7. Wenning Feng & Abdhi Sarkar & Chae Young Lim & Tapabrata Maiti, 2016. "Variable selection for binary spatial regression: Penalized quasi‐likelihood approach," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1164-1172, December.
    8. Tutz, Gerhard & Pößnecker, Wolfgang & Uhlmann, Lorenz, 2015. "Variable selection in general multinomial logit models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 207-222.
    9. Shuichi Kawano, 2014. "Selection of tuning parameters in bridge regression models via Bayesian information criterion," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1207-1223, November.
    10. Zemin Zheng & Jie Zhang & Yang Li, 2022. "L 0 -Regularized Learning for High-Dimensional Additive Hazards Regression," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 34(5), pages 2762-2775, September.
    11. Umberto Amato & Anestis Antoniadis & Italia De Feis & Irene Gijbels, 2021. "Penalised robust estimators for sparse and high-dimensional linear models," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 30(1), pages 1-48, March.
    12. Tizheng Li & Xiaojuan Kang, 2022. "Variable selection of higher-order partially linear spatial autoregressive model with a diverging number of parameters," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 243-285, February.
    13. Capanu, Marinela & Giurcanu, Mihai & Begg, Colin B. & Gönen, Mithat, 2023. "Subsampling based variable selection for generalized linear models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    14. Loann David Denis Desboulets, 2018. "A Review on Variable Selection in Regression Analysis," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-27, November.
    15. Victor Chernozhukov & Christian Hansen & Yuan Liao, 2015. "A lava attack on the recovery of sums of dense and sparse signals," CeMMAP working papers CWP56/15, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    16. Zhang, Tonglin, 2024. "Variables selection using L0 penalty," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    17. Takumi Saegusa & Tianzhou Ma & Gang Li & Ying Qing Chen & Mei-Ling Ting Lee, 2020. "Variable Selection in Threshold Regression Model with Applications to HIV Drug Adherence Data," Statistics in Biosciences, Springer;International Chinese Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 376-398, December.
    18. Zanhua Yin, 2020. "Variable selection for sparse logistic regression," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 83(7), pages 821-836, October.
    19. Qingliang Fan & Yaqian Wu, 2020. "Endogenous Treatment Effect Estimation with some Invalid and Irrelevant Instruments," Papers 2006.14998, arXiv.org.
    20. Pei Wang & Shunjie Chen & Sijia Yang, 2022. "Recent Advances on Penalized Regression Models for Biological Data," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(19), pages 1-24, October.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:42:y:2023:i:2:p:195-211. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.