IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jforec/v40y2021i3p387-415.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is optimum always optimal? A revisit of the mean‐variance method under nonlinear measures of dependence and non‐normal liquidity constraints

Author

Listed:
  • Mazin A.M. Al Janabi

Abstract

We develop a model for optimizing multiple‐asset portfolios with semi‐parametric liquidity‐adjusted value‐at‐risk (LVaR), whereby linear correlations are substituted by the multivariate nonlinear Kendall's tau dependence measure, under multiple credible operational and budget constraints. When considering a diversified large portfolio of international stock markets of both developed and emerging economies and commodities, under both regular and stressed market perspectives, the obtained results consistently confirm the dominance of our modeling algorithms relative to other competing portfolio strategies, including the traditional mean‐variance VaR approach and global minimum‐variance portfolios. The obtained results are robust to different trading scenarios and promising for practical optimization techniques in large multiple‐asset portfolios and operation research models in financial institution management.

Suggested Citation

  • Mazin A.M. Al Janabi, 2021. "Is optimum always optimal? A revisit of the mean‐variance method under nonlinear measures of dependence and non‐normal liquidity constraints," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 387-415, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:40:y:2021:i:3:p:387-415
    DOI: 10.1002/for.2714
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2714
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/for.2714?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, May.
    2. Reboredo, Juan C., 2013. "Is gold a safe haven or a hedge for the US dollar? Implications for risk management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2665-2676.
    3. Victor DeMiguel & Lorenzo Garlappi & Raman Uppal, 2009. "Optimal Versus Naive Diversification: How Inefficient is the 1-N Portfolio Strategy?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(5), pages 1915-1953, May.
    4. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4688 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Frank Fabozzi & Dashan Huang & Guofu Zhou, 2010. "Robust portfolios: contributions from operations research and finance," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 176(1), pages 191-220, April.
    6. Baur, Dirk G. & McDermott, Thomas K., 2010. "Is gold a safe haven? International evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1886-1898, August.
    7. Ravi Jagannathan & Tongshu Ma, 2003. "Risk Reduction in Large Portfolios: Why Imposing the Wrong Constraints Helps," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1651-1683, August.
    8. Madhavan, Ananth & Richardson, Matthew & Roomans, Mark, 1997. "Why Do Security Prices Change? A Transaction-Level Analysis of NYSE Stocks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 1035-1064.
    9. Bruce I. Jacobs & Kenneth N. Levy & Harry M. Markowitz, 2005. "Portfolio Optimization with Factors, Scenarios, and Realistic Short Positions," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 53(4), pages 586-599, August.
    10. Maillet, Bertrand & Tokpavi, Sessi & Vaucher, Benoit, 2015. "Global minimum variance portfolio optimisation under some model risk: A robust regression-based approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 244(1), pages 289-299.
    11. El Hedi Arouri, Mohamed & Jouini, Jamel & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2011. "Volatility spillovers between oil prices and stock sector returns: Implications for portfolio management," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1387-1405.
    12. Xing, Xin & Hu, Jinjin & Yang, Yaning, 2014. "Robust minimum variance portfolio with L-infinity constraints," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 107-117.
    13. Bekiros, Stelios & Hernandez, Jose Arreola & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2015. "Multivariate dependence risk and portfolio optimization: An application to mining stock portfolios," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 1-11.
    14. Aloui, Riadh & Ben Aïssa, Mohamed Safouane & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2013. "Conditional dependence structure between oil prices and exchange rates: A copula-GARCH approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 719-738.
    15. repec:dau:papers:123456789/14735 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. David B. Brown & James E. Smith, 2011. "Dynamic Portfolio Optimization with Transaction Costs: Heuristics and Dual Bounds," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(10), pages 1752-1770, October.
    17. Gatfaoui, Hayette, 2019. "Diversifying portfolios of U.S. stocks with crude oil and natural gas: A regime-dependent optimization with several risk measures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 132-152.
    18. Bai, Lan & Liu, Yuntong & Wang, Qian & Chen, Chen, 2019. "Improving portfolio performance of renewable energy stocks using robust portfolio approach: Evidence from China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 533(C).
    19. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2006. "Liquidity and Asset Prices," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(4), pages 269-364, February.
    20. Jorion, Philippe, 1991. "Bayesian and CAPM estimators of the means: Implications for portfolio selection," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 717-727, June.
    21. Joe, Harry & Li, Haijun & Nikoloulopoulos, Aristidis K., 2010. "Tail dependence functions and vine copulas," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 252-270, January.
    22. Best, Michael J & Grauer, Robert R, 1991. "On the Sensitivity of Mean-Variance-Efficient Portfolios to Changes in Asset Means: Some Analytical and Computational Results," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(2), pages 315-342.
    23. Al Janabi, Mazin A.M. & Arreola Hernandez, Jose & Berger, Theo & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2017. "Multivariate dependence and portfolio optimization algorithms under illiquid market scenarios," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 259(3), pages 1121-1131.
    24. Kwan, Clarence C. Y. & Yuan, Yufei, 1993. "Optimal portfolio selection without short sales under the full-information covariance structure: A pedagogic consideration," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 91-98, February.
    25. Dowd, Kevin, 2000. "Adjusting for risk:: An improved Sharpe ratio," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 209-222, July.
    26. Kolm, Petter N. & Tütüncü, Reha & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2014. "60 Years of portfolio optimization: Practical challenges and current trends," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 356-371.
    27. Chen, Yi-Hsuan & Tu, Anthony H., 2013. "Estimating hedged portfolio value-at-risk using the conditional copula: An illustration of model risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 514-528.
    28. Engle, Robert F. (ed.), 1995. "ARCH: Selected Readings," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774327.
    29. Alexandre Roch & H. Mete Soner, 2013. "Resilient Price Impact Of Trading And The Cost Of Illiquidity," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 16(06), pages 1-27.
    30. Bertrand Maillet & Sessi Tokpavi & Benoît Vaucher, 2015. "Global minimum variance portfolio optimisation under some model risk : A robust regression-based approach," Post-Print hal-02312329, HAL.
    31. Liu, Weimin, 2006. "A liquidity-augmented capital asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 631-671, December.
    32. Al Janabi, Mazin A.M., 2014. "Optimal and investable portfolios: An empirical analysis with scenario optimization algorithms under crisis market prospects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 369-381.
    33. Beckmann, Joscha & Berger, Theo & Czudaj, Robert, 2015. "Does gold act as a hedge or a safe haven for stocks? A smooth transition approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 16-24.
    34. Cornett, Marcia Millon & McNutt, Jamie John & Strahan, Philip E. & Tehranian, Hassan, 2011. "Liquidity risk management and credit supply in the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 297-312, August.
    35. Yu, Jing-Rung & Chiou, Wan-Jiun Paul & Mu, Da-Ren, 2015. "A linearized value-at-risk model with transaction costs and short selling," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 247(3), pages 872-878.
    36. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
    37. repec:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:4:p:1651-1684 is not listed on IDEAS
    38. Mazin Al Janabi, 2013. "Optimal and coherent economic-capital structures: evidence from long and short-sales trading positions under illiquid market perspectives," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 205(1), pages 109-139, May.
    39. Berger, T. & Missong, M., 2014. "Financial crisis, Value-at-Risk forecasts and the puzzle of dependency modeling," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 33-38.
    40. Hisata, Yoshifumi & Yamai, Yasuhiro, 2000. "Research toward the Practical Application of Liquidity Risk Evaluation Methods," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 18(2), pages 83-127, December.
    41. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Al Janabi, Mazin A.M. & Arreola Hernandez, Jose & Berger, Theo & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2017. "Multivariate dependence and portfolio optimization algorithms under illiquid market scenarios," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 259(3), pages 1121-1131.
    2. Al Janabi, Mazin A.M. & Ferrer, Román & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2019. "Liquidity-adjusted value-at-risk optimization of a multi-asset portfolio using a vine copula approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 536(C).
    3. Carroll, Rachael & Conlon, Thomas & Cotter, John & Salvador, Enrique, 2017. "Asset allocation with correlation: A composite trade-off," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 262(3), pages 1164-1180.
    4. Salisu, Afees A. & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Lucey, Brian, 2021. "Gold and US sectoral stocks during COVID-19 pandemic," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    5. Kolm, Petter N. & Tütüncü, Reha & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2014. "60 Years of portfolio optimization: Practical challenges and current trends," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 356-371.
    6. Ali, Sajid & Raza, Naveed & Vinh Vo, Xuan & Le, Van, 2022. "Modelling the joint dynamics of financial assets using MGARCH family models: Insights into hedging and diversification strategies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    7. Ruili Sun & Tiefeng Ma & Shuangzhe Liu & Milind Sathye, 2019. "Improved Covariance Matrix Estimation for Portfolio Risk Measurement: A Review," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-34, March.
    8. Meade, N. & Beasley, J.E. & Adcock, C.J., 2021. "Quantitative portfolio selection: Using density forecasting to find consistent portfolios," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 288(3), pages 1053-1067.
    9. Harris, Richard D.F. & Stoja, Evarist & Tan, Linzhi, 2017. "The dynamic Black–Litterman approach to asset allocation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 259(3), pages 1085-1096.
    10. Raza, Naveed & Ali, Sajid & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Salman, Aneel, 2019. "Can alternative hedging assets add value to Islamic-conventional portfolio mix: Evidence from MGARCH models," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 210-230.
    11. Benjamin Hippert & André Uhde & Sascha Tobias Wengerek, 2019. "Portfolio benefits of adding corporate credit default swap indices: evidence from North America and Europe," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 203-259, July.
    12. Erindi Allaj, 2020. "The Black–Litterman model and views from a reverse optimization procedure: an out-of-sample performance evaluation," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 465-492, October.
    13. Bekiros, Stelios & Boubaker, Sabri & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2017. "Black swan events and safe havens: The role of gold in globally integrated emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 317-334.
    14. Sandra Caçador & Joana Matos Dias & Pedro Godinho, 2020. "Global minimum variance portfolios under uncertainty: a robust optimization approach," Journal of Global Optimization, Springer, vol. 76(2), pages 267-293, February.
    15. Abdelbari El Khamlichi & Thi Hong Van Hoang & Wing‐keung Wong, 2016. "Is Gold Different for Islamic and Conventional Portfolios? A Sectorial Analysis," Post-Print hal-02965765, HAL.
    16. Hoang, Thi-Hong-Van & Wong, Wing-Keung & Zhu, Zhenzhen, 2015. "Is gold different for risk-averse and risk-seeking investors? An empirical analysis of the Shanghai Gold Exchange," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 200-211.
    17. Thi Hong Van Hoang & Amine Lahiani & David Heller, 2016. "Is gold a hedge against inflation? New evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Post-Print hal-02012307, HAL.
    18. Hoang, Thi Hong Van & Lahiani, Amine & Heller, David, 2016. "Is gold a hedge against inflation? New evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 54-66.
    19. Chkili, Walid, 2017. "Is gold a hedge or safe haven for Islamic stock market movements? A Markov switching approach," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 42, pages 152-163.
    20. Jose Arreola Hernandez & Mazin A.M. Al Janabi, 2020. "Forecasting of dependence, market, and investment risks of a global index portfolio," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 512-532, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:40:y:2021:i:3:p:387-415. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.