IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jimfin/v32y2013icp719-738.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Conditional dependence structure between oil prices and exchange rates: A copula-GARCH approach

Author

Listed:
  • Aloui, Riadh
  • Ben Aïssa, Mohamed Safouane
  • Nguyen, Duc Khuong

Abstract

We study the conditional dependence structure between crude oil prices and U.S. dollar exchange rates using a copula-GARCH approach. Various copula functions of the elliptical, Archimedean and quadratic families are used to model the underlying dependence structure in both bearish and bullish market phases. Over the 2000–2011 period, we find evidence of significant and symmetric dependence for almost all the oil-exchange rate pairs considered. The rise in the price of oil is found to be associated with the depreciation of the dollar. Moreover, we show that Student-t copulas best capture the extreme dependence, and that taking the extreme comovement into account leads to improve the accuracy of VaR forecasts. Our main results remain unchanged when considering alternative GARCH-type specifications and the crisis period, but are sensitive to the use of raw returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Aloui, Riadh & Ben Aïssa, Mohamed Safouane & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2013. "Conditional dependence structure between oil prices and exchange rates: A copula-GARCH approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 719-738.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:32:y:2013:i:c:p:719-738
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2012.06.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560612001441
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2012.06.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jorge A. Chan-Lau & Donald J. Mathieson & James Y. Yao, 2004. "Extreme Contagion in Equity Markets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(2), pages 1-8.
    2. Aloui, Riadh & Aïssa, Mohamed Safouane Ben & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2011. "Global financial crisis, extreme interdependences, and contagion effects: The role of economic structure?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 130-141, January.
    3. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2012. "Oil prices, exchange rates and emerging stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 227-240.
    4. Jacob A. Frenkel, 1983. "Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number fren83-1.
    5. Golub, Stephen S, 1983. "Oil Prices and Exchange Rates," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(371), pages 576-593, September.
    6. Y. Malevergne & D. Sornette, 2003. "Testing the Gaussian copula hypothesis for financial assets dependences," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 231-250.
    7. Regnier, Eva, 2007. "Oil and energy price volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 405-427, May.
    8. Benassy-Quere, Agnes & Mignon, Valerie & Penot, Alexis, 2007. "China and the relationship between the oil price and the dollar," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5795-5805, November.
    9. Amano, R. A. & van Norden, S., 1998. "Oil prices and the rise and fall of the US real exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 299-316, April.
    10. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    11. Genest, Christian & Rémillard, Bruno & Beaudoin, David, 2009. "Goodness-of-fit tests for copulas: A review and a power study," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 199-213, April.
    12. Lizardo, Radhamés A. & Mollick, André V., 2010. "Oil price fluctuations and U.S. dollar exchange rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 399-408, March.
    13. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Prasad, Arti, 2008. "Understanding the oil price-exchange rate nexus for the Fiji islands," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2686-2696, September.
    14. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996. "Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
    15. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1991. "Oil, productivity, government spending and the real yen-dollar exchange rate," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 91-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    16. Nathan S. Balke & Stephen P.A. Brown & Mine K. Yucel, 2002. "Oil Price Shocks and the U.S. Economy: Where Does the Asymmetry Originate?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 27-52.
    17. Wu, Chih-Chiang & Chung, Huimin & Chang, Yu-Hsien, 2012. "The economic value of co-movement between oil price and exchange rate using copula-based GARCH models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 270-282.
    18. Roch, Oriol & Alegre, Antonio, 2006. "Testing the bivariate distribution of daily equity returns using copulas. An application to the Spanish stock market," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 1312-1329, November.
    19. Mork, Knut Anton, 1989. "Oil and Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton's Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 740-744, June.
    20. Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship: Reply," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 221-222, October.
    21. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
    22. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    23. El Hedi Arouri, Mohamed & Huong Dinh, Thanh & Khuong Nguyen, Duc, 2010. "Time-varying predictability in crude-oil markets: the case of GCC countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4371-4380, August.
    24. Paul Krugman, 1983. "Oil Shocks and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 259-284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Zhang, Dayong, 2008. "Oil shock and economic growth in Japan: A nonlinear approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2374-2390, September.
    26. Park, Jungwook & Ratti, Ronald A., 2008. "Oil price shocks and stock markets in the U.S. and 13 European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2587-2608, September.
    27. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    28. Green, Steven L & Mork, Knut Anton, 1991. "Toward Efficiency in the Crude-Oil Market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(1), pages 45-66, Jan.-Marc.
    29. Bollerslev, Tim & Ole Mikkelsen, Hans, 1996. "Modeling and pricing long memory in stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 151-184, July.
    30. Hedi Arouri, Mohamed El & Khuong Nguyen, Duc, 2010. "Oil prices, stock markets and portfolio investment: Evidence from sector analysis in Europe over the last decade," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4528-4539, August.
    31. Dibooglu, Selahattin, 1996. "Real disturbances, relative prices and purchasing power parity," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 69-87.
    32. Akram, Q. Farooq, 2009. "Commodity prices, interest rates and the dollar," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 838-851, November.
    33. Hansen, Bruce E, 1994. "Autoregressive Conditional Density Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(3), pages 705-730, August.
    34. Shambora, William E. & Rossiter, Rosemary, 2007. "Are there exploitable inefficiencies in the futures market for oil?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 18-27, January.
    35. François Longin & Bruno Solnik, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, April.
    36. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Fan, Ying & Tsai, Hsien-Tang & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2008. "Spillover effect of US dollar exchange rate on oil prices," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 973-991.
    37. Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "What happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 195-213, October.
    38. Plourde, André & Watkins, G. C., 1998. "Crude oil prices between 1985 and 1994: how volatile in relation to other commodities?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 245-262, September.
    39. Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Chen, Hung-Chyn, 2007. "Oil prices and real exchange rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 390-404, May.
    40. Sadorsky, Perry, 2001. "Risk factors in stock returns of Canadian oil and gas companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 17-28, January.
    41. Fayyad, Abdallah & Daly, Kevin, 2011. "The impact of oil price shocks on stock market returns: Comparing GCC countries with the UK and USA," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 61-78, March.
    42. Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-547, August.
    43. Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-564 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. brayek, Angham ben & Sebai, Saber & Naoui, Kamel, 2015. "A study of the interactive relationship between oil price and exchange rate: A copula approach and a DCC-MGARCH model," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 173-189.
    3. Kumeka, Terver Theophilus & Uzoma-Nwosu, Damian Chidozie & David-Wayas, Maria Onyinye, 2022. "The effects of COVID-19 on the interrelationship among oil prices, stock prices and exchange rates in selected oil exporting economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    4. Jawadi, Fredj & Louhichi, Waël & Ameur, Hachmi Ben & Cheffou, Abdoulkarim Idi, 2016. "On oil-US exchange rate volatility relationships: An intraday analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 329-334.
    5. Turhan, M. Ibrahim & Sensoy, Ahmet & Hacihasanoglu, Erk, 2014. "A comparative analysis of the dynamic relationship between oil prices and exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 397-414.
    6. Chen, Hongtao & Liu, Li & Wang, Yudong & Zhu, Yingming, 2016. "Oil price shocks and U.S. dollar exchange rates," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1036-1048.
    7. Wen, Danyan & Liu, Li & Ma, Chaoqun & Wang, Yudong, 2020. "Extreme risk spillovers between crude oil prices and the U.S. exchange rate: Evidence from oil-exporting and oil-importing countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    8. Afees A. Salisu & Juncal Cunado & Kazeem Isah & Rangan Gupta, 2020. "Oil Price and Exchange Rate Behaviour of the BRICS for Over a Century," Working Papers 202064, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    9. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    10. Youssef, Manel & Mokni, Khaled, 2020. "Modeling the relationship between oil and USD exchange rates: Evidence from a regime-switching-quantile regression approach," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    11. Yijin He & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2019. "Conditional Dependence between Oil Prices and Exchange Rates in BRICS Countries: An Application of the Copula-GARCH Model," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-25, June.
    12. Aloui, Riadh & Ben Aïssa, Mohamed Safouane, 2016. "Relationship between oil, stock prices and exchange rates: A vine copula based GARCH method," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 458-471.
    13. Jozef Baruník & Evžen KoÄ enda, 2019. "Total, Asymmetric and Frequency Connectedness between Oil and Forex Markets," The Energy Journal, , vol. 40(2_suppl), pages 157-174, December.
    14. Benhmad, François, 2012. "Modeling nonlinear Granger causality between the oil price and U.S. dollar: A wavelet based approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1505-1514.
    15. Xu, Yang & Han, Liyan & Wan, Li & Yin, Libo, 2019. "Dynamic link between oil prices and exchange rates: A non-linear approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    16. Jammazi, Rania & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2015. "A wavelet-based nonlinear ARDL model for assessing the exchange rate pass-through to crude oil prices," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 173-187.
    17. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2012. "Oil prices, exchange rates and emerging stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 227-240.
    18. Aloui, Chaker & Jammazi, Rania, 2015. "Dependence and risk assessment for oil prices and exchange rate portfolios: A wavelet based approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 436(C), pages 62-86.
    19. Jiang, Jiaqi & Gu, Rongbao, 2016. "Asymmetrical long-run dependence between oil price and US dollar exchange rate—Based on structural oil shocks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 456(C), pages 75-89.
    20. Nouira, Ridha & Hadj Amor, Thouraya & Rault, Christophe, 2019. "Oil price fluctuations and exchange rate dynamics in the MENA region: Evidence from non-causality-in-variance and asymmetric non-causality tests," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 159-171.
    21. Khalid M. Kisswani & Arezou Harraf & Amjad M. Kisswani, 2019. "Revisiting the effects of oil prices on exchange rate: asymmetric evidence from the ASEAN-5 countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 279-300, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Copulas; Dependence measures; Crude oil price; U.S. dollar exchange rates; CML method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:32:y:2013:i:c:p:719-738. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.