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Forecasting GDP in Europe with textual data

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  • Luca Barbaglia
  • Sergio Consoli
  • Sebastiano Manzan

Abstract

We evaluate the informational content of news‐based sentiment indicators for forecasting gross domestic product (GDP) and other macroeconomic variables of the five major European economies. Our dataset includes over 27 million articles for 26 major newspapers in five different languages. The evidence indicates that these sentiment indicators are significant predictors to forecast macroeconomic variables and their predictive content is robust to controlling for other indicators available to forecasters in real time.

Suggested Citation

  • Luca Barbaglia & Sergio Consoli & Sebastiano Manzan, 2024. "Forecasting GDP in Europe with textual data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 338-355, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:japmet:v:39:y:2024:i:2:p:338-355
    DOI: 10.1002/jae.3027
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    1. Julian Ashwin & Eleni Kalamara & Lorena Saiz, 2024. "Nowcasting Euro area GDP with news sentiment: A tale of two crises," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 887-905, August.

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