IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/soceco/v88y2020ics2214804319304768.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Overconfidence and (Over)Trading: The Effect of Feedback on Trading Behavior

Author

Listed:
  • Bregu, Klajdi

Abstract

Overconfidence is linked to higher levels of trading and lower profits in financial markets. This paper explores overconfidence and trading in a laboratory setting to determine whether overconfidence in the accuracy of one's information is a driver of this situation. In a laboratory experiment, I design an environment such that being overconfident in one's own accuracy of information creates incentives to overtrade. Across treatments, I exogenously vary the type of feedback participants receive, such that some groups receive no feedback and other groups receive varying feedback about the accuracy of information, limiting the likelihood that they remain overconfident. The results show that the accuracy of information mediates the overconfidence effects on trading, and indicate that overconfidence leads to higher trading volume and weakly damages profits.

Suggested Citation

  • Bregu, Klajdi, 2020. "Overconfidence and (Over)Trading: The Effect of Feedback on Trading Behavior," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:soceco:v:88:y:2020:i:c:s2214804319304768
    DOI: 10.1016/j.socec.2020.101598
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214804319304768
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.socec.2020.101598?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bruno Biais & Denis Hilton & Karine Mazurier & Sébastien Pouget, 2005. "Judgemental Overconfidence, Self-Monitoring, and Trading Performance in an Experimental Financial Market," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(2), pages 287-312.
    2. Gervais, Simon & Odean, Terrance, 2001. "Learning to be Overconfident," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 1-27.
    3. Brice Corgnet & Mark Desantis & David Porter, 2018. "What Makes a Good Trader? On the Role of Intuition and Reflection on Trader Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(3), pages 1113-1137, June.
    4. Plott, Charles R & Sunder, Shyam, 1988. "Rational Expectations and the Aggregation of Diverse Information in Laboratory Security Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1085-1118, September.
    5. Angela A. Hung & Charles R. Plott, 2001. "Information Cascades: Replication and an Extension to Majority Rule and Conformity-Rewarding Institutions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1508-1520, December.
    6. Terrance Odean., 1996. "Volume, Volatility, Price and Profit When All Trader Are Above Average," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-266, University of California at Berkeley.
    7. Kent D. Daniel & David Hirshleifer & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2001. "Overconfidence, Arbitrage, and Equilibrium Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 921-965, June.
    8. Markus Glaser & Martin Weber, 2007. "Overconfidence and trading volume," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, Springer;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 32(1), pages 1-36, June.
    9. Ulrike Malmendier & Geoffrey Tate, 2005. "CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2661-2700, December.
    10. Hirshleifer, David & Daniel, Kent, 2015. "Overconfident investors, predictable returns, and excessive trading," MPRA Paper 69002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Deck, Cary & Lin, Shengle & Porter, David, 2013. "Affecting policy by manipulating prediction markets: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 48-62.
    12. Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2009. "Which past returns affect trading volume?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-31, February.
    13. Kirchler, Erich & Maciejovsky, Boris, 2002. "Simultaneous Over- and Underconfidence: Evidence from Experimental Asset Markets," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 65-85, July.
    14. Meir Statman & Steven Thorley & Keith Vorkink, 2006. "Investor Overconfidence and Trading Volume," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1531-1565.
    15. Mark Grinblatt & Matti Keloharju, 2009. "Sensation Seeking, Overconfidence, and Trading Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 549-578, April.
    16. Kent Daniel & David Hirshleifer, 2015. "Overconfident Investors, Predictable Returns, and Excessive Trading," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 61-88, Fall.
    17. Klajdi Bregu & Cary Deck & Lindsay Ham & Salar Jahedi, 2017. "The Effects of Alcohol Use on Economic Decision Making," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 83(4), pages 886-902, April.
    18. Richard Deaves & Erik Lüders & Guo Ying Luo, 2009. "An Experimental Test of the Impact of Overconfidence and Gender on Trading Activity," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 13(3), pages 555-575.
    19. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2000. "Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 773-806, April.
    20. John R. Graham & Campbell R. Harvey & Hai Huang, 2009. "Investor Competence, Trading Frequency, and Home Bias," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(7), pages 1094-1106, July.
    21. Arkes, Hal R. & Christensen, Caryn & Lai, Cheryl & Blumer, Catherine, 1987. "Two methods of reducing overconfidence," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 133-144, February.
    22. Terrance Odean, 1999. "Do Investors Trade Too Much?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1279-1298, December.
    23. Anderson, Lisa R & Holt, Charles A, 1997. "Information Cascades in the Laboratory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 847-862, December.
    24. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:1887-1934 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Merkle, Christoph, 2017. "Financial overconfidence over time: Foresight, hindsight, and insight of investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 68-87.
    26. Royal, Andrew & Tasoff, Joshua, 2017. "When higher productivity hurts: The interaction between overconfidence and capital," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 131-142.
    27. Remus, William & O'Conner, Marcus & Griggs, Kenneth, 1996. "Does Feedback Improve the Accuracy of Recurrent Judgmental Forecasts?," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 22-30, April.
    28. Hoffmann, Arvid O.I. & Post, Thomas, 2014. "Self-attribution bias in consumer financial decision-making: How investment returns affect individuals’ belief in skill," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 23-28.
    29. Brice Corgnet & Mark Desantis & David Porter, 2018. "What Makes a Good Trader? On the Role of Reflection and Intuition on Trader Performance," Post-Print hal-02312062, HAL.
    30. Dan Lovallo & Colin Camerer, 1999. "Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 306-318, March.
    31. Yin, Xile & Li, Jianbiao & Bao, Te, 2019. "Does overconfidence promote cooperation? Theory and experimental evidence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 119-133.
    32. Urs Fischbacher, 2007. "z-Tree: Zurich toolbox for ready-made economic experiments," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 10(2), pages 171-178, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bao, Helen X.H. & Robinson, Guy M., 2022. "Behavioural land use policy studies: Past, present, and future," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    2. Klajdi Bregu, 2022. "The effect of overconfidence on insurance demand," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 47(2), pages 298-326, September.
    3. Jitender Kumar & Neha Prince, 2022. "Overconfidence bias in the Indian stock market in diverse market situations: an empirical study," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 13(6), pages 3031-3047, December.
    4. Francesco Angelini & Massimiliano Castellani & Lorenzo Zirulia, 2022. "Overconfidence in the art market: a bargaining pricing model with asymmetric disinformation," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 39(3), pages 961-988, October.
    5. Jiayu Huang & Yifan Wang & Yaojun Fan & Hexuan Li, 2022. "Gauging the effect of investor overconfidence on trading volume from the perspective of the relationship between lagged stock returns and current trading volume," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 103-123, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Helen X. H. Bao & Steven Haotong Li, 2016. "Overconfidence And Real Estate Research: A Survey Of The Literature," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(04), pages 1-24, September.
    2. Forman, John & Horton, Joanne, 2019. "Overconfidence, position size, and the link to performance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 291-309.
    3. Hwang, Soosung & Cho, Youngha & Noh, Sanha, 2022. "The cost of overconfidence in public information," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    4. Oliver Gloede & Lukas Menkhoff, 2014. "Financial Professionals' Overconfidence: Is It Experience, Function, or Attitude?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(2), pages 236-269, March.
    5. Michailova, Julija, 2010. "Development of the overconfidence measurement instrument for the economic experiment," MPRA Paper 34799, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2011.
    6. Zhang, Xiaotao & Liang, Junpeng & He, Feng, 2019. "Private information advantage or overconfidence? Performance of intraday arbitrage speculators in the Chinese stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    7. Phan, Thuy Chung & Rieger, Marc Oliver & Wang, Mei, 2018. "What leads to overtrading and under-diversification? Survey evidence from retail investors in an emerging market," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 39-55.
    8. Richards, Daniel W. & Willows, Gizelle D., 2018. "Who trades profusely? The characteristics of individual investors who trade frequently," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 1-11.
    9. Carlos Cueva Herrero & Iñigo Iturbe-Ormaetxe Kortajarene & Giovanni Ponti & Josefa Tomás Lucas, 2017. "Boys will (still) be boys: Gender differences in trading activity are not due to differences in confidence," Working Papers. Serie AD 2017-06, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    10. Michailova, Julija, 2010. "Overconfidence and bubbles in experimental asset markets," MPRA Paper 26388, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Kenneth Yung & Yen-Chih Liu, 2009. "Implications of futures trading volume: Hedgers versus speculators," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(5), pages 318-337, December.
    12. D’Hondt, Catherine & De Winne, Rudy & Merli, Maxime, 2021. "Do retail investors bite off more than they can chew? A close look at their return objectives," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 879-902.
    13. Deaves, Richard & Lüders, Erik & Schröder, Michael, 2010. "The dynamics of overconfidence: Evidence from stock market forecasters," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 402-412, September.
    14. Merkle, Christoph, 2018. "The curious case of negative volatility," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 92-108.
    15. Merkle, Christoph, 2017. "Financial overconfidence over time: Foresight, hindsight, and insight of investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 68-87.
    16. Jitender Kumar & Neha Prince, 2022. "Overconfidence bias in the Indian stock market in diverse market situations: an empirical study," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 13(6), pages 3031-3047, December.
    17. Ramzi Boussaidi, 2022. "Implications of the overconfidence bias in presence of private information: Evidence from MENA stock markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3660-3678, July.
    18. Inghelbrecht, Koen & Tedde, Mariachiara, 2024. "Overconfidence, financial literacy and excessive trading," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 219(C), pages 152-195.
    19. Ahrens, Steffen & Bosch-Rosa, Ciril & Roulund, Rasmus, 2019. "Price Dynamics and Trader Overconfidence," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 161, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    20. Esra Alp Coşkun & Hakan Kahyaoglu & Chi Keung Marco Lau, 2023. "Which return regime induces overconfidence behavior? Artificial intelligence and a nonlinear approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-34, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Overconfidence; Trading volume; Trading profits;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C90 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - General
    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:soceco:v:88:y:2020:i:c:s2214804319304768. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620175 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.