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The relationship between political instability and financial inclusion: Evidence from Middle East and North Africa

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  • Abidin Alhassan
  • Leon Li
  • Krishna Reddy
  • Geeta Duppati

Abstract

What is the effect of political instability on financial inclusion (FI) in the Middle East and North Africa region? Using data for 2011, 2014, and 2017, from the Global Findex database, we test the asymmetry relationship between political instability and FI using the probit model with sample selection and a multiplicative interaction test of the asymmetric model. We also propose and test a political stability threshold model that may trigger FI. We find that (a) political instability positively correlates with lower degrees of FI with higher levels of persistence; (b) higher incomes and higher education are associated with higher degrees of FI; (c) a lack of documentation required by formal financial institutions proves to be a major barrier to FI; and (d) inefficient mechanisms to determine real interest rates, corruption, oil reliance, unemployment, and religious tensions also negatively affect FI. Further, we calculate the political stability threshold level that will trigger FI to be ‐0.960 for the Middle East and North Africa region. The policymakers could enhance and promote FI and economic well‐being by targeting the minimum threshold value of political stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Abidin Alhassan & Leon Li & Krishna Reddy & Geeta Duppati, 2021. "The relationship between political instability and financial inclusion: Evidence from Middle East and North Africa," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 353-374, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:26:y:2021:i:1:p:353-374
    DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.1793
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    2. Murshed, Muntasir & Ahmed, Rizwan & Al-Tal, Raad Mahmoud & Kumpamool, Chamaiporn & Vetchagool, Witchulada & Avarado, Rafael, 2023. "Determinants of financial inclusion in South Asia: The moderating and mediating roles of internal conflict settlement," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
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    4. Chandan Kumar Jha & Fatih Kırşanlı, 2024. "Arab Spring, democratization of corruption, and income inequality," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 3678-3691, July.

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