IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/hlthec/v30y2021is1p11-29.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The future of the elderly population health status: Filling a knowledge gap

Author

Listed:
  • Vincenzo Atella
  • Federico Belotti
  • Daejung Kim
  • Dana Goldman
  • Tadeja Gracner
  • Andrea Piano Mortari
  • Bryan Tysinger

Abstract

The aging process in OECD countries calls for a better understanding of the future disease prevalence, life expectancy (LE) and patterns of inequalities in health outcomes. In this paper we present the results obtained from several dynamic microsimulation models of the Future Elderly Model family for 12 OECD countries, with the aim of reproducing for the first time comparable long‐term projections in individual health status across OECD countries. We provide projections of LE and prevalence of major chronic conditions and disabilities, overall, by gender and by education. We find that the prevalence of main chronic conditions in Europe is catching‐up with the United States and significant heterogeneity in the evolution of gender and educational gradients. Our findings represent a contribution to support policymakers in designing and implementing effective interventions in the healthcare sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincenzo Atella & Federico Belotti & Daejung Kim & Dana Goldman & Tadeja Gracner & Andrea Piano Mortari & Bryan Tysinger, 2021. "The future of the elderly population health status: Filling a knowledge gap," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(S1), pages 11-29, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:30:y:2021:i:s1:p:11-29
    DOI: 10.1002/hec.4258
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.4258
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/hec.4258?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David M. Cutler & Adriana Lleras-Muney & Tom Vogl, 2008. "Socioeconomic Status and Health: Dimensions and Mechanisms," NBER Working Papers 14333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Marc Luy, 2003. "Causes of Male Excess Mortality: Insights from Cloistered Populations," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 29(4), pages 647-676, December.
    3. Chen, Brian K. & Jalal, Hawre & Hashimoto, Hideki & Suen, Sze-chuan & Eggleston, Karen & Hurley, Michael & Schoemaker, Lena & Bhattacharya, Jay, 2016. "Forecasting trends in disability in a super-aging society: Adapting the Future Elderly Model to Japan," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 8(C), pages 42-51.
    4. Anne Case & Angus Deaton, 2017. "Mortality and Morbidity in the 21st Century," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 397-476.
    5. Grossman, Michael, 2006. "Education and Nonmarket Outcomes," Handbook of the Economics of Education, in: Erik Hanushek & F. Welch (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Education, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 10, pages 577-633, Elsevier.
    6. David M. Cutler & Ellen Meara, 2004. "Changes in the Age Distribution of Mortality over the Twentieth Century," NBER Chapters, in: Perspectives on the Economics of Aging, pages 333-366, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Jinjing Li & Cathal O'Donoghue, 2013. "A survey of dynamic microsimulation models: uses, model structure and methodology," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 6(2), pages 3-55.
    8. Roberto Astolfi & Luca Lorenzoni & Jillian Oderkirk, 2012. "A Comparative Analysis of Health Forecasting Methods," OECD Health Working Papers 59, OECD Publishing.
    9. Goldman Dana P & Cutler David M & Shang Baoping & Joyce Geoffrey F, 2006. "The Value of Elderly Disease Prevention," Forum for Health Economics & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 1-29, January.
    10. Aïda Solé-Auró & Pierre-Carl Michaud & Michael Hurd & Eileen Crimmins, 2015. "Disease Incidence and Mortality Among Older Americans and Europeans," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 52(2), pages 593-611, April.
    11. Michaud, Pierre-Carl & Goldman, Dana & Lakdawalla, Darius & Gailey, Adam & Zheng, Yuhui, 2011. "Differences in health between Americans and Western Europeans: Effects on longevity and public finance," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 254-263, July.
    12. Herman Oyen & Wilma Nusselder & Carol Jagger & Petra Kolip & Emmanuelle Cambois & Jean-Marie Robine, 2013. "Gender differences in healthy life years within the EU: an exploration of the “health–survival” paradox," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 58(1), pages 143-155, February.
    13. Goldman, Dana & Michaud, Pierre-Carl & Lakdawalla, Darius & Zheng, Yuhui & Gailey, Adam & Vaynman, Igor, 2010. "The Fiscal Consequences of Trends in Population Health," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 63(2), pages 307-330, June.
    14. Goldman, D.P. & Zheng, Y. & Girosi, F. & Michaud, P.-C. & Olshansky, S.J. & Cutler, D. & Rowe, J.W., 2009. "The benefits of risk factor prevention in Americans aged 51 years and older," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 99(11), pages 2096-2101.
    15. Anne Case & Angua Deaton, 2015. "Rising morbidity and mortality in midlife among white non-Hispanic Americans in the 21st century," Working Papers 15078.full.pdf, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Research Program in Development Studies..
    16. Astolfi, Roberto & Lorenzoni, Luca & Oderkirk, Jillian, 2012. "Informing policy makers about future health spending: A comparative analysis of forecasting methods in OECD countries," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(1), pages 1-10.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Giordana, Gastón A. & Pi Alperin, María Noel, 2023. "Old age takes its toll: Long-run projections of health-related public expenditure in Luxembourg," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daniel Bauer & Darius Lakdawalla & Julian Reif, 2018. "Mortality Risk, Insurance, and the Value of Life," NBER Working Papers 25055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Raquel Fonseca Benito & Yuhui Zheng, 2011. "The Effect of Education on Health Cross-Country Evidence," Working Papers WR-864, RAND Corporation.
    3. Raquel Fonseca & Pierre-Carl Michaud & Yuhui Zheng, 2020. "The effect of education on health: evidence from national compulsory schooling reforms," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 83-103, March.
    4. Kaestner, Robert & Schiman, Cuiping & Ward, Jason, 2020. "Education and health over the life cycle," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    5. Radim Bohácek & Jesús Bueren & Laura Crespo & Pedro Mira & Josep Pijoan-Mas, 2018. "Inequality in Life Expectancies across Europe," Working Papers wp2018_1810, CEMFI.
    6. Alexander Cheung & Joseph Marchand & Patricia Mark, 2022. "Loss of Life and Labor Productivity: The Canadian Opioid Crisis," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 703(1), pages 303-323, September.
    7. Fernández Guerrico, Sofía, 2021. "The effects of trade-induced worker displacement on health and mortality in Mexico," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    8. Haan, Peter & Hammerschmid, Anna & Schmieder, Julia, 2019. "Mortality in midlife for subgroups in Germany," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 14.
    9. Ilaria Natali & Mathias Dewatripont & Victor Ginsburgh & Michel Goldman & Patrick Legros, 2023. "Prescription opioids and economic hardship in France," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 24(9), pages 1473-1504, December.
    10. Cristina Borra & Jerònia Pons-Pons & Margarita Vilar-Rodríguez, 2020. "Austerity, healthcare provision, and health outcomes in Spain," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 21(3), pages 409-423, April.
    11. Michaud, Pierre-Carl & Goldman, Dana P. & Lakdawalla, Darius N. & Zheng, Yuhui & Gailey, Adam H., 2012. "The value of medical and pharmaceutical interventions for reducing obesity," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 630-643.
    12. Buckles, Kasey & Evans, William N. & Lieber, Ethan M.J., 2023. "The drug crisis and the living arrangements of children," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    13. Kevin Milligan & Tammy Schirle, 2021. "The evolution of longevity: Evidence from Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 164-192, February.
    14. Deaton, Angus, 2018. "What do self-reports of wellbeing say about life-cycle theory and policy?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 18-25.
    15. Vincenzo Atella & Federico Belotti & Ludovico Carrino & Andrea Piano Mortari, 2017. "The future of Long Term Care in Europe. An investigation using a dynamic microsimulation model," CEIS Research Paper 405, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 08 May 2017.
    16. McGranahan, David & Parker, Timothy, 2021. "The Opioid Epidemic: A Geography in Two Phases," Economic Research Report 327197, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    17. Mateus Dias & Luiz Felipe Fontes, 2024. "The Effects of a Large-Scale Mental Health Reform: Evidence from Brazil," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 257-289, August.
    18. Aliprantis, Dionissi & Fee, Kyle & Schweitzer, Mark E., 2023. "Opioids and the labor market," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    19. Samuel Taylor & Heather M. Stephens & Daniel Grossman, 2022. "The opioid crisis and economic distress: Consequences for population change," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(2), pages 541-577, March.
    20. O'Connor, Kelsey J. & Graham, Carol, 2019. "Longer, more optimistic, lives: Historic optimism and life expectancy in the United States," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 374-392.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:30:y:2021:i:s1:p:11-29. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/5749 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.