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Beyond the cost‐effectiveness acceptability curve: The appropriateness of rank probabilities for presenting the results of economic evaluation in multiple technology appraisal

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  • David Epstein

Abstract

The cost‐effectiveness acceptability curve (CEAC) shows the probability that an option ranks first for net benefit. Where more than two options are under consideration, the CEAC offers only a partial picture of the decision uncertainty. This paper discusses the appropriateness of showing the full set of rank probabilities for reporting the results of economic evaluation in multiple technology appraisal (MTA). A case study is used to illustrate the calculation of rank probabilities and associated metrics, based on Monte Carlo simulations from a decision model. Rank probabilities are often used to show uncertainty in the results of network meta‐analysis, but until now have not been used for economic evaluation. They may be useful decision‐making tools to complement the CEAC in specific MTA contexts.

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  • David Epstein, 2019. "Beyond the cost‐effectiveness acceptability curve: The appropriateness of rank probabilities for presenting the results of economic evaluation in multiple technology appraisal," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(6), pages 801-807, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:28:y:2019:i:6:p:801-807
    DOI: 10.1002/hec.3884
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    1. Claire Rothery & Karl Claxton & Stephen Palmer & David Epstein & Rosanna Tarricone & Mark Sculpher, 2017. "Characterising Uncertainty in the Assessment of Medical Devices and Determining Future Research Needs," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26, pages 109-123, February.
    2. Charles F. Manski, 2018. "Reasonable patient care under uncertainty," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(10), pages 1397-1421, October.
    3. Danzon, Patricia M & Chao, Li-Wei, 2000. "Does Regulation Drive out Competition in Pharmaceutical Markets?," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 43(2), pages 311-357, October.
    4. Charles F. Manski, 2018. "Response to commentaries on “Reasonable patient care under uncertainty”," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(10), pages 1431-1434, October.
    5. Claxton, Karl, 1999. "The irrelevance of inference: a decision-making approach to the stochastic evaluation of health care technologies," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 341-364, June.
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