IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/hlthec/v19y2010i8p1002-1005.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Drug development costs when financial risk is measured using the Fama–French three‐factor model

Author

Listed:
  • John A. Vernon
  • Joseph H. Golec
  • Joseph A. Dimasi

Abstract

In a widely cited article, DiMasi, Hansen, and Grabowski (2003) estimate the average pre‐tax cost of bringing a new molecular entity to market. Their base case estimate, excluding post‐marketing studies, was $802 million (in $US 2000). Strikingly, almost half of this cost (or $399 million) is the cost of capital (COC) used to fund clinical development expenses to the point of FDA marketing approval. The authors used an 11% real COC computed using the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). But the CAPM is a single factor risk model, and multi‐factor risk models are the current state of the art in finance. Using the Fama–French three factor model we find that the cost of drug development to be higher than the earlier estimate. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • John A. Vernon & Joseph H. Golec & Joseph A. Dimasi, 2010. "Drug development costs when financial risk is measured using the Fama–French three‐factor model," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(8), pages 1002-1005, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:19:y:2010:i:8:p:1002-1005
    DOI: 10.1002/hec.1538
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.1538
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/hec.1538?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R., 2001. "The theory and practice of corporate finance: evidence from the field," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2-3), pages 187-243, May.
    2. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    3. DiMasi, Joseph A. & Hansen, Ronald W. & Grabowski, Henry G., 2003. "The price of innovation: new estimates of drug development costs," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 151-185, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Swarn Chatterjee & Amy Hubble, 2016. "Day-Of-The-Week Effect In Us Biotechnology Stocks — Do Policy Changes And Economic Cycles Matter?," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(02), pages 1-17, June.
    2. Fraenkel, Stefan & Haftor, Darek M. & Pashkevich, Natallia, 2016. "Salesforce management factors for successful new product launch," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(11), pages 5053-5058.
    3. Ming Liu & Sumner LaCroix, 2011. "The Impact of Stronger Property Rights in Pharmaceuticals on Innovation in Developed and Developing Countries," Working Papers 201116, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    4. Fossett, Sarah J. & Wunnava, Phanindra V., 2017. "Active Ingredients: Exploring the Key Factors Affecting the Rising Cost of Developing New Drugs," IZA Discussion Papers 10817, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Joseph P. Cook & Joseph Golec, 2017. "How excluding some benefits from value assessment of new drugs impacts innovation," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(12), pages 1813-1825, December.
    6. Ye, Liping & Geng, Jiang-Bo, 2021. "Measuring the connectedness of global health sector stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    7. Joseph P Cook, 2014. "Real Option Value and Path Dependence in Oncology Innovation," Seminar Briefing 000077, Office of Health Economics.
    8. Tobias Basse & Christoph Schwarzbach & J.-Matthias Schulenburg, 2023. "Dividend policy issues in the European pharmaceutical industry: new empirical evidence," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 24(5), pages 803-816, July.
    9. John Vernon & Joseph Golec & J. Stevens, 2010. "Comparative Effectiveness Regulations and Pharmaceutical Innovation," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 28(10), pages 877-887, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. J. Sarmiento-Sabogal & M. Sadeghi, 2015. "Estimating the cost of equity for private firms using accounting fundamentals," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(3), pages 288-301, January.
    2. Magdalena Mikolajek-Gocejna, 2021. "Estimation, Instability, and Non-Stationarity of Beta Coefficients for Twenty-four Emerging Markets in 2005-2021," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 370-395.
    3. Bai, Ye & Green, Christopher J., 2020. "Country and industry factors in tests of Capital Asset Pricing Models for partially integrated emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 180-194.
    4. Aitzaz Ahsan Alias Sarang & Nicolas Aubert & Xavier Hollandts, 2024. "Board gender diversity and the cost of equity: What difference does gender quota legislation make?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 2193-2213, April.
    5. Paul Handro & Bogdan Dima, 2024. "Analyzing Financial Markets Efficiency: Insights from a Bibliometric and Content Review," Journal of Financial Studies, Institute of Financial Studies, vol. 16(9), pages 119-175, May.
    6. Adhikari, Binay K. & Agrawal, Anup, 2018. "Peer influence on payout policies," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 615-637.
    7. Walkshäusl, Christian, 2015. "Equity financing activities and European value-growth returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 27-40.
    8. Owen A. Lamont, 2002. "Evaluating Value Weighting: Corporate Events and Market Timing," NBER Working Papers 9049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Owen Lamont, 2004. "Go Down Fighting: Short Sellers vs. Firms," NBER Working Papers 10659, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Cynthia M. Gong & Di Luo & Huainan Zhao, 2021. "Liquidity risk and the beta premium," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 44(4), pages 789-814, December.
    11. Hasnie, Syed Sharjeel Ahmad & Collazzo, Pablo & Hassan, M. Kabir, 2022. "Risk assessment of equity-based conventional and islamic stock portfolios," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 363-378.
    12. Robin Greenwood & Samuel Hanson, 2010. "Characteristic Timing," NBER Working Papers 15948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Qianwei Ying & Tahir Yousaf & Qurat ul Ain & Yasmeen Akhtar & Muhammad Shahid Rasheed, 2019. "Stock Investment and Excess Returns: A Critical Review in the Light of the Efficient Market Hypothesis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-22, June.
    14. Jiang, Wenwen & Kang, Jangkoo & Kim, Hwa-Sung, 2024. "Is the zero-leverage policy value-enhancing?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 176-189.
    15. Olivier, Jacques & Dessaint, Olivier & Otto, Clemens A. & Thesmar, David, 2017. "CAPM-Based Company (Mis)valuations," HEC Research Papers Series 1235, HEC Paris, revised 20 Mar 2018.
    16. Graham, John R. & Li, Si & Qiu, Jiaping, 2008. "Corporate misreporting and bank loan contracting," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 44-61, July.
    17. Yung, Kenneth & Li, DeQing Diane & Jian, Yi, 2015. "The value of corporate financial flexibility in emerging countries," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 32, pages 25-41.
    18. Simin, Timothy, 2008. "The Poor Predictive Performance of Asset Pricing Models," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(2), pages 355-380, June.
    19. Rüdiger Fahlenbrach & Kevin Rageth & René M Stulz, 2021. "How Valuable Is Financial Flexibility when Revenue Stops? Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis [The risk of being a fallen angel and the corporate dash for cash in the midst of COVID]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5474-5521.
    20. Cao, Viet Nga & Pham, Anh Viet, 2021. "Behavioral spillover between firms with shared auditors: The monitoring role of capital market investors," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:19:y:2010:i:8:p:1002-1005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/5749 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.