Underground CO2 storage: demonstrating regulatory conformance by convergence of history‐matched modeled and observed CO2 plume behavior using Sleipner time‐lapse seismics

One of the three key regulatory requirements in Europe for transfer of storage site liability is to demonstrate conformity between predictive models of reservoir performance and monitoring observations. This is a challenging requirement because a perfect and unique match between observed and modeled behavior is near impossible to achieve. This study takes the time‐lapse seismic monitoring data from the Sleipner storage operation to demonstrate that as more seismic data becomes available with time, predictive models can be matched more accurately to observations and become more reliable predictors of future performance. Six simple performance measures were defined: plume footprint area, maximum lateral migration distance of CO2 from the injection point, area of CO2 accumulation trapped at top reservoir, volume of CO2 accumulation trapped at top reservoir, area of all CO2 layers summed, and spreading co‐efficient. Model scenarios were developed to predict plume migration up to 2008. Scenarios were developed for 1996 (baseline), 2001, and 2006 conditions, with models constrained by the information available at those times, and compared with monitoring datasets obtained up to 2008. The 1996 predictive range did generally encompass the future observed plume behavior, but with such a wide range of uncertainty as to render it of only marginal practical use. The 2001 predictions (which used the 1999 and 2001 seismic monitoring datasets) had a much lower uncertainty range, with the 2006 uncertainties somewhat lower again. There are still deficiencies in the actual quality of match but a robust convergence, with time, of predicted and observed models is clearly demonstrated. We propose modeling‐monitoring convergence as a generic approach to demonstrating conformance. © 2015 British Geological Survey. Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology published by Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.