A CO2 emissions assessment of the green economy in Iran

This study aims to provide an assessment of total and sectoral CO2 emissions of Iran using a macroeconomic climate analysis. It uses two quantitative approaches (i.e., energy–economy–environment indicators and econometric analysis) that complement each other. According to the latest accessible data (1971–2016), evidence shows that, first, the change in Iran's total primary energy supply can significantly explain the variation of CO2 emissions in Iran, while energy intensity and CO2 intensity cannot significantly explain its variability. Second, CO2 emissions in Iran are increasing rapidly and the country is not moving toward the green economy situations. Third, the increase in energy intensity is mostly related to significant increases in energy consumption rather than increases in economic activity. This evidence shows that Iran's CO2 intensity highly depends on the consumption of fossil fuels. Fourth, the econometric estimates suggest that CO2 emissions, in comparison with other examined variables, change significantly in response to changes in per capita GDP, energy intensity, and carbon intensity. Fifth, the main contributors to industrial CO2 emissions are industrial per capita GDP and energy and carbon intensities, while in the transport sectors, the main contributors are the number of vehicles, transport energy intensity, and carbon intensity. Sixth, further decomposition analysis shows the positive impact of per capita GDP and the negative impacts of energy structure and energy efficiency on total CO2 emissions in Iran. © 2020 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.