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Modelling the Distributional Impact of the COVID‐19 Crisis

Author

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  • Cathal O'Donoghue
  • Denisa M. Sologon
  • Iryna Kyzyma
  • John McHale

Abstract

The COVID‐19 emergency has had a dramatic impact on market incomes and income‐support policies. The lack of timely available data constrains the estimation of the scale and direction of recent changes in the income distribution, which in turn constrains policymakers seeking to monitor such developments. We overcome the lack of data by proposing a dynamic calibrated microsimulation approach to generate counterfactual income distributions as a function of more timely external data than are available in dated income surveys. We combine nowcasting methods using publicly available data and a household income generation model to perform the first calibrated simulation based upon actual data, aiming to assess the distributional implications of the COVID‐19 crisis in Ireland. Overall, we find that the crisis had an equalizing real‐time effect for both gross and disposable incomes, notwithstanding the significant hardship experienced by many households.

Suggested Citation

  • Cathal O'Donoghue & Denisa M. Sologon & Iryna Kyzyma & John McHale, 2020. "Modelling the Distributional Impact of the COVID‐19 Crisis," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 321-336, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:fistud:v:41:y:2020:i:2:p:321-336
    DOI: 10.1111/1475-5890.12231
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    1. Andrew E. Clark & Conchita D’Ambrosio & Anthony Lepinteur, 2021. "The fall in income inequality during COVID-19 in four European countries," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 19(3), pages 489-507, September.
    2. Jinjing Li & Yogi Vidyattama & Hai Anh La & Riyana Miranti & Denisa M. Sologon, 2022. "Estimating the Impact of Covid-19 and Policy Responses on Australian Income Distribution Using Incomplete Data," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 162(1), pages 1-31, July.
    3. Augeraud-Véron, Emmanuelle & Fabbri, Giorgio & Schubert, Katheline, 2021. "Prevention and mitigation of epidemics: Biodiversity conservation and confinement policies," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    4. Waldenström, Daniel & Angelov, Nikolay, 2021. "COVID-19 and Income Inequality: Evidence from Monthly Population Registers," Working Paper Series 1396, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    5. Vanda Almeida & Salvador Barrios & Michael Christl & Silvia Poli & Alberto Tumino & Wouter Wielen, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on households´ income in the EU," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 19(3), pages 413-431, September.
    6. Chiara Burlina & Andrés Rodríguez-Pose, 2024. "Inequality, poverty, deprivation and the uneven spread of COVID-19 in Europe," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(2), pages 263-284, February.
    7. Makarski, Krzysztof & Tyrowicz, Joanna, 2023. "Preference for redistribution during structural change with labor mobility frictions," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    8. Nerijus Černiauskas & Denisa M. Sologon & Cathal O’Donoghue & Linas Tarasonis, 2022. "Income Inequality and Redistribution in Lithuania: The Role of Policy, Labor Market, Income, and Demographics," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 68(S1), pages 131-166, April.
    9. Doorley, Karina & Keane, Claire & Tuda, Dora, 2021. "COVID-19 and the Irish welfare system," Papers BP2022/2, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    10. Sarah Kuypers & Ive Marx & Brian Nolan & Juan C. Palomino, 2022. "Lockdown, Earnings Losses and Household Asset Buffers in Europe," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 68(2), pages 428-470, June.
    11. Stefanie Stantcheva, 2022. "Inequalities in the times of a pandemic," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 37(109), pages 5-41.
    12. Maura Campra & Paolo Esposito & Valerio Brescia, 2021. "State of the Art of COVID-19 and Business, Management, and Accounting Sector. A Bibliometrix Analysis," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 16(1), pages 1-35, August.
    13. Nikolay Angelov & Daniel Waldenström, 2023. "COVID-19 and income inequality: evidence from monthly population registers," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 21(2), pages 351-379, June.
    14. González, Marta Ramos & Ureña, Antonio Partal & Fernández-Aguado, Pilar Gómez, 2023. "Forecasting for regulatory credit loss derived from the COVID-19 pandemic: A machine learning approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    15. Sha, Yezhou & Zhang, Yong & Lu, Xiaomeng, 2022. "Household investment diversification amid Covid-19 pandemic: Evidence from Chinese investors," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    16. De Bruin, Kelly & Monaghan, Eoin & Yakut, Aykut Mert, 2020. "The environmental and economic impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on the Irish economy: An application of the I3E model," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS106.
    17. Magalasi, Chimwemwe, 2021. "The short-term distributional impact of COVID-19 in Malawi," EUROMOD Working Papers EM7/21, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    18. Denisa M. Sologon & Cathal O’Donoghue & Iryna Kyzyma & Jinjing Li & Jules Linden & Raymond Wagener, 2022. "The COVID-19 resilience of a continental welfare regime - nowcasting the distributional impact of the crisis," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(4), pages 777-809, December.
    19. Cueva,Ronald & Del Carpio,Ximena Vanessa & Winkler,Hernan Jorge, 2021. "The Impacts of COVID-19 on Informal Labor Markets : Evidence from Peru," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9675, The World Bank.
    20. Borja Gambau & Juan C. Palomino & Juan G. Rodríguez & Raquel Sebastian, 2022. "COVID-19 restrictions in the US: wage vulnerability by education, race and gender," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(25), pages 2900-2915, May.
    21. Kerstin Bruckmeier & Andreas Peichl & Martin Popp & Jürgen Wiemers & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2021. "Distributional effects of macroeconomic shocks in real-time," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 19(3), pages 459-487, September.
    22. Xinba Li & Chuanrong Zhang, 2021. "Did the COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis Affect Housing Prices Evenly in the U.S.?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-28, November.
    23. Adriana Florina Popa & Stefania Amalia Jimon & Delia David & Daniela Nicoleta Sahlian, 2021. "Influence of Fiscal Policies and Labor Market Characteristics on Sustainable Social Insurance Budgets—Empirical Evidence from Central and Eastern European Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-14, May.

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    JEL classification:

    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

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