IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/fistud/v41y2020i2p321-336.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling the Distributional Impact of the COVID‐19 Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Cathal O'Donoghue
  • Denisa M. Sologon
  • Iryna Kyzyma
  • John McHale

Abstract

The COVID‐19 emergency has had a dramatic impact on market incomes and income‐support policies. The lack of timely available data constrains the estimation of the scale and direction of recent changes in the income distribution, which in turn constrains policymakers seeking to monitor such developments. We overcome the lack of data by proposing a dynamic calibrated microsimulation approach to generate counterfactual income distributions as a function of more timely external data than are available in dated income surveys. We combine nowcasting methods using publicly available data and a household income generation model to perform the first calibrated simulation based upon actual data, aiming to assess the distributional implications of the COVID‐19 crisis in Ireland. Overall, we find that the crisis had an equalizing real‐time effect for both gross and disposable incomes, notwithstanding the significant hardship experienced by many households.

Suggested Citation

  • Cathal O'Donoghue & Denisa M. Sologon & Iryna Kyzyma & John McHale, 2020. "Modelling the Distributional Impact of the COVID‐19 Crisis," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 321-336, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:fistud:v:41:y:2020:i:2:p:321-336
    DOI: 10.1111/1475-5890.12231
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-5890.12231
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1475-5890.12231?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. McQuinn, Kieran & O'Toole, Conor & Allen-Coghlan, Matthew & Coffey, Cathal, 2020. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Spring 2020," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC2020SPR, march.
    2. repec:bla:econom:v:69:y:2002:i:274:p:229-43 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. SOLOGON Denisa & VAN KERM Philippe & LI Jinjing & O'DONOGHUE Cathal, 2018. "Accounting for Differences in Income Inequality across Countries: Ireland and the United Kingdom," LISER Working Paper Series 2018-01, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER).
    4. F. Bourguignon & M. Fournier & M. Gurgand, 2001. "Fast Development With a Stable Income Distribution: Taiwan, 1979–94," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 47(2), pages 139-163, June.
    5. Doorley, Karina & Regan, Mark & Beirne, Keelan & Roantree, Barra & Tuda, Dora, 2020. "The potential costs and distributional effect of Covid-19 related unemployment in Ireland," EUROMOD Working Papers EM5/20, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    6. François Bourguignon & Francisco H.G. Ferreira & Phillipe G. Leite, 2002. "Beyond Oaxaca-Blinder: accounting for differences in household income distributions across countries," Textos para discussão 452, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    7. repec:bla:revinw:v:47:y:2001:i:2:p:139-63 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. SOLOGON Denisa & ALMEIDA Vanda & VAN KERM Philippe, 2019. "Accounting for the distributional effects of the 2007-2008 crisis and the Economic Adjustment Program in Portugal," LISER Working Paper Series 2019-05, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER).
    9. Cathal O’Donoghue & Jason Loughrey & Denisa M. Sologon, 2018. "Decomposing the Drivers of Changes in Inequality During the Great Recession in Ireland using the Fields Approach," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 49(2), pages 173-200.
    10. Jinjing Li & Cathal O'Donoghue, 2014. "Evaluating Binary Alignment Methods in Microsimulation Models," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 17(1), pages 1-15.
    11. Cathal O’Donoghue & Jason Loughrey & Karyn Morrissey, 2013. "Using the EU-SILC to model the impact of the economic crisis on inequality," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-26, December.
    12. Jekaterina Navicke & Olga Rastrigina & Holly Sutherland, 2014. "Nowcasting Indicators of Poverty Risk in the European Union: A Microsimulation Approach," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 119(1), pages 101-119, October.
    13. Callan, Tim & Keane, Claire & Walsh, John R. & Lane, Marguerita, 2010. "From Data to Policy Analysis: Tax-Benefit Modelling using SILC 2008," Papers WP359, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    14. Cathal O'Donoghue & Jason Loughrey, 2014. "Nowcasting in Microsimulation Models: A Methodological Survey," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 17(4), pages 1-12.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andrew E. Clark & Conchita D’Ambrosio & Anthony Lepinteur, 2021. "The fall in income inequality during COVID-19 in four European countries," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 19(3), pages 489-507, September.
    2. Jinjing Li & Yogi Vidyattama & Hai Anh La & Riyana Miranti & Denisa M. Sologon, 2022. "Estimating the Impact of Covid-19 and Policy Responses on Australian Income Distribution Using Incomplete Data," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 162(1), pages 1-31, July.
    3. Augeraud-Véron, Emmanuelle & Fabbri, Giorgio & Schubert, Katheline, 2021. "Prevention and mitigation of epidemics: Biodiversity conservation and confinement policies," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    4. Waldenström, Daniel & Angelov, Nikolay, 2021. "COVID-19 and Income Inequality: Evidence from Monthly Population Registers," Working Paper Series 1396, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    5. Vanda Almeida & Salvador Barrios & Michael Christl & Silvia Poli & Alberto Tumino & Wouter Wielen, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on households´ income in the EU," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 19(3), pages 413-431, September.
    6. Chiara Burlina & Andrés Rodríguez-Pose, 2024. "Inequality, poverty, deprivation and the uneven spread of COVID-19 in Europe," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(2), pages 263-284, February.
    7. Makarski, Krzysztof & Tyrowicz, Joanna, 2023. "Preference for redistribution during structural change with labor mobility frictions," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    8. Nerijus Černiauskas & Denisa M. Sologon & Cathal O’Donoghue & Linas Tarasonis, 2022. "Income Inequality and Redistribution in Lithuania: The Role of Policy, Labor Market, Income, and Demographics," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 68(S1), pages 131-166, April.
    9. Doorley, Karina & Keane, Claire & Tuda, Dora, 2021. "COVID-19 and the Irish welfare system," Papers BP2022/2, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    10. Sarah Kuypers & Ive Marx & Brian Nolan & Juan C. Palomino, 2022. "Lockdown, Earnings Losses and Household Asset Buffers in Europe," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 68(2), pages 428-470, June.
    11. Stefanie Stantcheva, 2022. "Inequalities in the times of a pandemic," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 37(109), pages 5-41.
    12. Maura Campra & Paolo Esposito & Valerio Brescia, 2021. "State of the Art of COVID-19 and Business, Management, and Accounting Sector. A Bibliometrix Analysis," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 16(1), pages 1-35, August.
    13. Nikolay Angelov & Daniel Waldenström, 2023. "COVID-19 and income inequality: evidence from monthly population registers," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 21(2), pages 351-379, June.
    14. González, Marta Ramos & Ureña, Antonio Partal & Fernández-Aguado, Pilar Gómez, 2023. "Forecasting for regulatory credit loss derived from the COVID-19 pandemic: A machine learning approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    15. Sha, Yezhou & Zhang, Yong & Lu, Xiaomeng, 2022. "Household investment diversification amid Covid-19 pandemic: Evidence from Chinese investors," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    16. De Bruin, Kelly & Monaghan, Eoin & Yakut, Aykut Mert, 2020. "The environmental and economic impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on the Irish economy: An application of the I3E model," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS106.
    17. Magalasi, Chimwemwe, 2021. "The short-term distributional impact of COVID-19 in Malawi," EUROMOD Working Papers EM7/21, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    18. Denisa M. Sologon & Cathal O’Donoghue & Iryna Kyzyma & Jinjing Li & Jules Linden & Raymond Wagener, 2022. "The COVID-19 resilience of a continental welfare regime - nowcasting the distributional impact of the crisis," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(4), pages 777-809, December.
    19. Cueva,Ronald & Del Carpio,Ximena Vanessa & Winkler,Hernan Jorge, 2021. "The Impacts of COVID-19 on Informal Labor Markets : Evidence from Peru," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9675, The World Bank.
    20. Borja Gambau & Juan C. Palomino & Juan G. Rodríguez & Raquel Sebastian, 2022. "COVID-19 restrictions in the US: wage vulnerability by education, race and gender," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(25), pages 2900-2915, May.
    21. Kerstin Bruckmeier & Andreas Peichl & Martin Popp & Jürgen Wiemers & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2021. "Distributional effects of macroeconomic shocks in real-time," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 19(3), pages 459-487, September.
    22. Xinba Li & Chuanrong Zhang, 2021. "Did the COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis Affect Housing Prices Evenly in the U.S.?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-28, November.
    23. Adriana Florina Popa & Stefania Amalia Jimon & Delia David & Daniela Nicoleta Sahlian, 2021. "Influence of Fiscal Policies and Labor Market Characteristics on Sustainable Social Insurance Budgets—Empirical Evidence from Central and Eastern European Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-14, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. O'Donoghue, Cathal & M. Sologon, Denisa & Kyzyma, Iryna & McHale, John, 2020. "Modelling the distributional impact of the Covid-19 crisis in Ireland," Centre for Microsimulation and Policy Analysis Working Paper Series CEMPA4/20, Centre for Microsimulation and Policy Analysis at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    2. O'Donoghue, Cathal & Sologon, Denisa Maria, 2023. "The Transformation of Public Policy Analysis in Times of Crisis – A Microsimulation-Nowcasting Method Using Big Data," IZA Discussion Papers 15937, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Cathal O’Donoghue & Denisa M Sologon & Iryna Kyzyma & John McHale, 2021. "A Microsimulation Analysis of the Distributional Impact over the Three Waves of the COVID-19 Crisis in Ireland," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 14(2), pages 81-105.
    4. Denisa M. Sologon & Cathal O’Donoghue & Iryna Kyzyma & Jinjing Li & Jules Linden & Raymond Wagener, 2022. "The COVID-19 resilience of a continental welfare regime - nowcasting the distributional impact of the crisis," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(4), pages 777-809, December.
    5. Jinjing Li & Yogi Vidyattama & Hai Anh La & Riyana Miranti & Denisa M. Sologon, 2022. "Estimating the Impact of Covid-19 and Policy Responses on Australian Income Distribution Using Incomplete Data," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 162(1), pages 1-31, July.
    6. Maurizio Bussolo & Rafael E De Hoyos & Denis Medvedev, 2010. "Economic growth and income distribution: linking macro-economic models with household survey data at the global level," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 3(1), pages 92-103.
    7. Gary Cornwall & Marina Gindelsky, 2024. "Nowcasting Distributional National Accounts for the United States: A Machine Learning Approach," BEA Papers 0130, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    8. Fiske, Amelia & Galasso, Ilaria & Eichinger, Johanna & McLennan, Stuart & Radhuber, Isabella & Zimmermann, Bettina & Prainsack, Barbara, 2022. "The second pandemic: Examining structural inequality through reverberations of COVID-19 in Europe," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    9. Michal Myck & Mateusz Najsztub, 2015. "Data and Model Cross-validation to Improve Accuracy of Microsimulation Results: Estimates for the Polish Household Budget Survey," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 8(1), pages 33-66.
    10. Olga Cantó & Francesco Figari & Carlo V. Fiorio & Sarah Kuypers & Sarah Marchal & Marina Romaguera‐de‐la‐Cruz & Iva V. Tasseva & Gerlinde Verbist, 2022. "Welfare Resilience at the Onset of COVID‐19 Pandemic in a Selection of European Countries: Impact on Public Finance and Household Incomes," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 68(2), pages 293-322, June.
    11. H. Xavier Jara & Lourdes Montesdeoca & Iva Tasseva, 2022. "The Role of Automatic Stabilizers and Emergency Tax–Benefit Policies During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Ecuador," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(6), pages 2787-2809, December.
    12. Jules Linden & Cathal O'Donoghue & Denisa M. Sologon, 2021. "The Structure and Incentives of a COVID related Emergency Wage Subsidy," Papers 2108.04198, arXiv.org.
    13. Nerijus Cerniauskas & Denisa M. Sologon & Cathal O’Donoghue & Linas Tarasonis, 2020. "Changes in income inequality in Lithuania: the role of policy, labour market structure, returns and demographics," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 71, Bank of Lithuania.
    14. Daniele Checchi & Cecilia García‐Peñalosa, 2010. "Labour Market Institutions and the Personal Distribution of Income in the OECD," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 77(307), pages 413-450, July.
    15. Holly Sutherland & Francesco Figari, 2013. "EUROMOD: the European Union tax-benefit microsimulation model," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 1(6), pages 4-26.
    16. -, 2002. "Meeting the millennium poverty reduction targets in Latin America and the Caribbean," Libros de la CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 2349 edited by Eclac, May.
    17. Olivier Bargain & Tim Callan & Karina Doorley & Claire Keane, 2017. "Changes in Income Distributions and the Role of Tax‐Benefit Policy During the Great Recession: An International Perspective," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 38, pages 559-585, December.
    18. Vanda Almeida & Salvador Barrios & Michael Christl & Silvia Poli & Alberto Tumino & Wouter Wielen, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on households´ income in the EU," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 19(3), pages 413-431, September.
    19. Doorley, Karina & Keane, Claire & McTague, Alyvia & O’Malley, Seamus & Regan, Mark & Roantree, Barra & Tuda, Dora, 2020. "Distributional Impact of Tax and Welfare Policies: COVID-related policies and Budget 2021," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    20. Fatima-Zahra Jaouimaa & Daniel Dempsey & Suzanne Van Osch & Stephen Kinsella & Kevin Burke & Jason Wyse & James Sweeney, 2021. "An age-structured SEIR model for COVID-19 incidence in Dublin, Ireland with framework for evaluating health intervention cost," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(12), pages 1-25, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:fistud:v:41:y:2020:i:2:p:321-336. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1475-5890 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.