IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/envmet/v32y2021i2ne2655.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A smoothing spline model for multimodal and skewed circular responses: Applications in meteorology and oceanography

Author

Listed:
  • Fatemeh Hassanzadeh

Abstract

The analysis of circular data is the main subject in many disciplines, such as meteorology and oceanography. In this article, we introduce a new multimodal skew‐circular model as an extension of the circular beta distribution. We propose a truncated power smoothing spline for modeling the skewness parameter and identifying significant factors of the asymmetry. A Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme is provided to perform statistical inference from a Bayesian perspective. Then, the performance of our modeling methodology to analyze specific circular responses is assessed through several simulation studies. To illustrate the usefulness of the new model in practical applications, we analyze measurements on the wind and wave directions in Norway. We also fit various regression models to show that the cubic smoothing spline approach performs better than competitive models in practical applications. Findings, based on prediction values, confirm that the proposed model can reasonably fit multimodal skewed‐circular responses.

Suggested Citation

  • Fatemeh Hassanzadeh, 2021. "A smoothing spline model for multimodal and skewed circular responses: Applications in meteorology and oceanography," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:envmet:v:32:y:2021:i:2:n:e2655
    DOI: 10.1002/env.2655
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2655
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/env.2655?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. SenGupta, Ashis & Kim, Sungsu & Arnold, Barry C., 2013. "Inverse circular–circular regression," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 200-208.
    2. Amanda Lenzi & Ingelin Steinsland & Pierre Pinson, 2018. "Benefits of spatiotemporal modeling for short‐term wind power forecasting at both individual and aggregated levels," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), May.
    3. Eva Cantoni, 2002. "Degrees-of-freedom tests for smoothing splines," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(2), pages 251-263, June.
    4. Xiaoping Zhan & Tiefeng Ma & Shuangzhe Liu & Kunio Shimizu, 2018. "Markov-Switching Linked Autoregressive Model for Non-continuous Wind Direction Data," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 23(3), pages 410-425, September.
    5. M. P. Wand, 2003. "Smoothing and mixed models," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 223-249, July.
    6. David Randell & Graham Feld & Kevin Ewans & Philip Jonathan, 2015. "Distributions of return values for ocean wave characteristics in the South China Sea using directional–seasonal extreme value analysis," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 442-450, September.
    7. Geweke, John & Tanizaki, Hisashi, 2001. "Bayesian estimation of state-space models using the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm within Gibbs sampling," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 151-170, August.
    8. Umbach, Dale & Jammalamadaka, S. Rao, 2009. "Building asymmetry into circular distributions," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(5), pages 659-663, March.
    9. Erdem, Ergin & Shi, Jing, 2011. "ARMA based approaches for forecasting the tuple of wind speed and direction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(4), pages 1405-1414, April.
    10. Shogo Kato, 2010. "A Markov process for circular data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 72(5), pages 655-672, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrade, Ana C.C. & Pereira, Gustavo H.A. & Artes, Rinaldo, 2023. "The circular quantile residual," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    2. Harvey, Andrew & Hurn, Stan & Palumbo, Dario & Thiele, Stephen, 2024. "Modelling circular time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 239(1).
    3. Xiaoping Zhan & Tiefeng Ma & Shuangzhe Liu & Kunio Shimizu, 2018. "Markov-Switching Linked Autoregressive Model for Non-continuous Wind Direction Data," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 23(3), pages 410-425, September.
    4. Yuanjia Wang & Huaihou Chen, 2012. "On Testing an Unspecified Function Through a Linear Mixed Effects Model with Multiple Variance Components," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 68(4), pages 1113-1125, December.
    5. Li, Min & Yang, Yi & He, Zhaoshuang & Guo, Xinbo & Zhang, Ruisheng & Huang, Bingqing, 2023. "A wind speed forecasting model based on multi-objective algorithm and interpretability learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    6. Lee, Dae-Jin & Durbán, María, 2009. "P-spline anova-type interaction models for spatio-temporal smoothing," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws093312, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    7. Linnea Polgreen & Pedro Silos, 2008. "Capital-Skill Complementarity and Inequality: A Sensitivity Analysis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(2), pages 302-313, April.
    8. Rana Muhammad Adnan & Zhongmin Liang & Xiaohui Yuan & Ozgur Kisi & Muhammad Akhlaq & Binquan Li, 2019. "Comparison of LSSVR, M5RT, NF-GP, and NF-SC Models for Predictions of Hourly Wind Speed and Wind Power Based on Cross-Validation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-22, January.
    9. Dongxiao Niu & Yi Liang & Wei-Chiang Hong, 2017. "Wind Speed Forecasting Based on EMD and GRNN Optimized by FOA," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-18, December.
    10. Zonggui Yao & Chen Wang, 2018. "A Hybrid Model Based on A Modified Optimization Algorithm and An Artificial Intelligence Algorithm for Short-Term Wind Speed Multi-Step Ahead Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-33, May.
    11. Strasak, Alexander M. & Umlauf, Nikolaus & Pfeiffer, Ruth M. & Lang, Stefan, 2011. "Comparing penalized splines and fractional polynomials for flexible modelling of the effects of continuous predictor variables," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 1540-1551, April.
    12. Yiqi Chu & Chengcai Li & Yefang Wang & Jing Li & Jian Li, 2016. "A Long-Term Wind Speed Ensemble Forecasting System with Weather Adapted Correction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-20, October.
    13. Koo, Junmo & Han, Gwon Deok & Choi, Hyung Jong & Shim, Joon Hyung, 2015. "Wind-speed prediction and analysis based on geological and distance variables using an artificial neural network: A case study in South Korea," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 1296-1302.
    14. Liu, Hui & Tian, Hong-qi & Pan, Di-fu & Li, Yan-fei, 2013. "Forecasting models for wind speed using wavelet, wavelet packet, time series and Artificial Neural Networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 191-208.
    15. Wang, Jujie & Li, Yaning, 2018. "Multi-step ahead wind speed prediction based on optimal feature extraction, long short term memory neural network and error correction strategy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 429-443.
    16. Abe, Toshihiro & Miyata, Yoichi & Shiohama, Takayuki, 2023. "Bayesian estimation for mode and anti-mode preserving circular distributions," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 136-160.
    17. Sungsu Kim & Ashis SenGupta, 2013. "A three-parameter generalized von Mises distribution," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 685-693, August.
    18. M. Jones & Arthur Pewsey & Shogo Kato, 2015. "On a class of circulas: copulas for circular distributions," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 67(5), pages 843-862, October.
    19. I Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya & Henk Folmer, 2024. "High-Resolution Spatiotemporal Forecasting with Missing Observations Including an Application to Daily Particulate Matter 2.5 Concentrations in Jakarta Province, Indonesia," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-29, September.
    20. Skaug, Hans J. & Fournier, David A., 2006. "Automatic approximation of the marginal likelihood in non-Gaussian hierarchical models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 699-709, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:envmet:v:32:y:2021:i:2:n:e2655. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/1180-4009/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.