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Rethinking the Welfare State

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  • Nezih Guner
  • Remzi Kaygusuz
  • Gustavo Ventura

Abstract

The United States spends significant amounts on non‐medical transfers for its working‐age population in a wide range of programs that support low‐ and middle‐income households. How valuable are these programs for U.S. households? Are there simpler, welfare‐improving ways to transfer resources that are supported by a majority? What are the macroeconomic effects of such alternatives? We answer these questions in an equilibrium, life‐cycle model with single and married households who face idiosyncratic productivity risk, in the presence of costly children and potential skill losses of females associated with non‐participation. Our findings show that a potential revenue‐neutral elimination of the welfare state generates large welfare losses in the aggregate, although most households support the move as losses are concentrated among a small group. We find that a Universal Basic Income program does not improve upon the current system. If, instead, per‐person transfers are implemented alongside a proportional tax, a Negative Income Tax experiment, it becomes feasible to improve upon the current system. Providing per‐person transfers to all households is costly, and reducing tax distortions helps to provide for resources to expand redistribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Nezih Guner & Remzi Kaygusuz & Gustavo Ventura, 2023. "Rethinking the Welfare State," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(6), pages 2261-2294, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:emetrp:v:91:y:2023:i:6:p:2261-2294
    DOI: 10.3982/ECTA19921
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    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Rethinking the Welfare State
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2021-10-19 17:05:09

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    Cited by:

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    2. Guvenen, Fatih & Ozkan, Serdar & Madera, Rocio, 2024. "Consumption dynamics and welfare under non-Gaussian earnings risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    3. Alvaro Janez, 2025. "Means-Tested Programs and Interstate Migration in the United States," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 55, January.
    4. Nezih Guner & Yuliya Kulikova & Arnau Valladares-Esteban, 2025. "Does the Added Worker Effect Matter?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 56, April.
    5. Ortigueira, Salvador & Siassi, Nawid, 2023. "On the optimal reform of income support for single parents," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    6. Conesa, Juan Carlos & Li, Bo & Li, Qian, 2023. "A quantitative evaluation of universal basic income," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    7. Fabio Blasutto, 2024. "Cohabitation vs. Marriage: Mating Strategies by Education in The USA," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 22(4), pages 1723-1761.
    8. Rauh, Christopher & Rodrigues dos Santos, Marcelo, 2022. "How do transfers and universal basic income impact the labor market and inequality?," CEPR Discussion Papers 16993, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Minchul Yum, 2024. "Frisch elasticities in a model of indivisible labor supply with endogenous workweek length," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 126(1), pages 194-217, January.
    10. Dirk Krueger & Alexander Ludwig & Irina Popova, 2024. "Shaping Inequality and Intergenerational Persistence of Poverty: Free College or Better Schools," NBER Working Papers 32467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Dirk Krueger & Alexander Ludwig & Irina Popova, 2024. "Shaping Inequality and Intergenerational Persistence of Poverty: Free College or Better Schools," PIER Working Paper Archive 24-023, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    12. Boar, Corina & Midrigan, Virgiliu, 2022. "Efficient redistribution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 78-91.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household

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