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Nonrandom Exposure to Exogenous Shocks

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  • Kirill Borusyak
  • Peter Hull

Abstract

We develop a new approach to estimating the causal effects of treatments or instruments that combine multiple sources of variation according to a known formula. Examples include treatments capturing spillovers in social or transportation networks and simulated instruments for policy eligibility. We show how exogenous shocks to some—but not all—determinants of such variables can be leveraged while avoiding omitted variables bias. Our solution involves specifying counterfactual shocks that may as well have been realized and adjusting for a summary measure of nonrandomness in shock exposure: the average treatment (or instrument) across shock counterfactuals. We use this approach to address bias when estimating employment effects of market access growth from Chinese high‐speed rail construction.

Suggested Citation

  • Kirill Borusyak & Peter Hull, 2023. "Nonrandom Exposure to Exogenous Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(6), pages 2155-2185, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:emetrp:v:91:y:2023:i:6:p:2155-2185
    DOI: 10.3982/ECTA19367
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Chun Chee Kok & Gedeon J. Lim, 2024. "Ethnic Proximity and Politics: Evidence from Colonial Resettlement in Malaysia," SoDa Laboratories Working Paper Series 2024-06, Monash University, SoDa Laboratories.
    7. Elizabeth C. Klee & Adair Morse & Chaehee Shin, 2024. "Auto Finance in the Electric Vehicle Transition," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-065, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Elisa Facchetti, 2024. "Police infrastructure, police performance, and crime: Evidence from austerity cuts," IFS Working Papers W24/16, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    9. Hongqi Ma & Guangjun Shen & Jingxian Zou, 2024. "Does excess capacity strengthen firms' dependence on the polluting path? Evidence from Chinese iron and steel firms," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(3), pages 971-1000, July.
    10. Bühler Mathias & Andrew Dickens, 2024. "From Couch to Poll: Media Content and The Value of Local Information," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 496, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    11. Yoshifumi Konishi & Akari Ono, 2024. "Do Winners Win More from Transport Megaprojects? Evidence from the Great Seto Bridges in Japan," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series 2024-003, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.
    12. Bora Kim, 2024. "Estimating Spillover Effects in the Presence of Isolated Nodes," Papers 2412.05919, arXiv.org.
    13. Kirill Borusyak & Peter Hull, 2024. "Negative Weights Are No Concern in Design-Based Specifications," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 114, pages 597-600, May.
    14. Disa M. Hynsjö & Luca Perdoni, 2024. "Mapping Out Institutional Discrimination: The Economic Effects of Federal “Redlining”," CESifo Working Paper Series 11098, CESifo.
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    16. David M. Ritzwoller & Joseph P. Romano & Azeem M. Shaikh, 2024. "Randomization Inference: Theory and Applications," Papers 2406.09521, arXiv.org.
    17. Kieran Marray, 2024. "Estimating Spillovers from Sampled Connections," Papers 2410.17154, arXiv.org.
    18. Yoshifumi Konishi & Akari Ono, 2024. "Do Winners Win More from Transport Megaprojects? Evidence from the Great Seto Bridge in Japan," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series 2024-018, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.

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