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Rare Event Risk and Heterogeneous Beliefs: The Case of Incomplete Markets

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  • Dieckmann, Stephan

Abstract

This paper provides an equilibrium model subject to heterogeneous beliefs about the likelihood of rare events. I explore asset pricing implications in an incomplete capital market and the effects of market completion. Without explicit rare event insurance, investors insure themselves indirectly through the stock and money markets, the risk premium is countercyclical, and flight to quality effects arise. Upon market completion, the risk premium increases as investors increase their exposure to rare event risk. While market completion leads to a more efficient allocation based on investors’ anticipatory utilities, its effect on ex post efficiency is ambiguous.

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  • Dieckmann, Stephan, 2011. "Rare Event Risk and Heterogeneous Beliefs: The Case of Incomplete Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(2), pages 459-488, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:46:y:2011:i:02:p:459-488_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Alp Simsek, 2012. "Speculation and Risk Sharing with New Financial Assets," 2012 Meeting Papers 71, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Harrison Hong & Neng Wang & Jinqiang Yang, 2023. "Mitigating Disaster Risks in the Age of Climate Change," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(5), pages 1763-1802, September.
    3. Laura A. Bakkensen & Lint Barrage, 2017. "Flood Risk Belief Heterogeneity and Coastal Home Price Dynamics: Going Under Water?," NBER Working Papers 23854, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Branger, Nicole & Konermann, Patrick & Schlag, Christian, 2019. "Optimists and pessimists in (in)complete markets," SAFE Working Paper Series 252, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    5. Steven D. Baker & Burton Hollifield & Emilio Osambela, 2018. "Preventing Controversial Catastrophes," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-052, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Wei Xiong, 2013. "Bubbles, Crises, and Heterogeneous Beliefs," NBER Working Papers 18905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Alex Boulatov & Stephan Dieckmann, 2013. "The Risk-Sharing Implications of Disaster Insurance Funds," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 80(1), pages 37-64, March.
    8. Chabakauri, Georgy, 2015. "Dynamic equilibrium with rare events and heterogeneous Epstein-Zin investors," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 60737, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Davydov, Denis & Florestedt, Otto & Peltomäki, Jarkko & Schön, Marcus, 2017. "Portfolio performance across genders and generations: The role of financial innovation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 44-51.
    10. Chabakauri, Georgy, 2015. "Dynamic equilibrium with rare events and heterogeneous epstein-zin investors," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 62003, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Gao, George P. & Lu, Xiaomeng & Song, Zhaogang & Yan, Hongjun, 2019. "Disagreement beta," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 96-113.

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