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The Association between Changes in Interest Rates, Earnings, and Equity Values

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  • Doron Nissim
  • Stephen H. Penman

Abstract

Numerous studies have documented that stock returns are negatively related to changes in interest rates, but there has been little corroborating research on the information in interest†rate changes about the fundamentals that the stock market prices. The negative correlation is often attributed to changes in the discount rate, a denominator effect in a valuation model. However, there may also be a numerator effect on the expected payoffs that are discounted. This paper shows that changes in interest rates are positively related to subsequent earnings, but the change in earnings is typically not large enough to cover the change in the required return. Hence, the net (numerator and denominator) effect on equity value is negative, consistent with the results of the research on interest rates and stock returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Doron Nissim & Stephen H. Penman, 2003. "The Association between Changes in Interest Rates, Earnings, and Equity Values," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 20(4), pages 775-804, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:coacre:v:20:y:2003:i:4:p:775-804
    DOI: 10.1506/YKRX-HUQU-9V28-EA16
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    2. Chi-Fai Lo & Cho-Hoi Hui, 2016. "Pricing corporate bonds with interest rates following double square-root process," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(03), pages 1-31, September.
    3. Shivakumar, Lakshmanan, 2007. "Aggregate earnings, stock market returns and macroeconomic activity: A discussion of `does earnings guidance affect market returns? The nature and information content of aggregate earnings guidance'," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 64-73, September.
    4. Betül Çal, 2015. "Reconciliation of Expectancy-Valence and Expectation-Disconfirmation Paradigms in Investment Decisions: Case of Turkish Equity Investors," International Journal of Business and Social Research, LAR Center Press, vol. 5(1), pages 15-32, January.
    5. Sagarika Mishra & Harminder Singh, 2012. "Do macro-economic variables explain stock-market returns? Evidence using a semi-parametric approach," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 13(2), pages 115-127, April.
    6. Prem Jain & Joshua Rosett, 2006. "Macroeconomic variables and the E/P ratio: Is inflation really positively associated with the E/P ratio?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 5-26, August.
    7. Román Ferrer & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Adrián Maizonada, 2019. "Nonlinear and extreme dependence between long-term sovereign bond yields and the stock market: A quantile-on-quantile analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(2), pages 969-981.
    8. Chi-Fai Lo & Cho-Hoi Hui, 2016. "Pricing Corporate Bonds With Interest Rates Following Double Square-root Process," Working Papers 112016, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    9. Betül Çal, 2015. "Reconciliation of Expectancy-Valence and Expectation-Disconfirmation Paradigms in Investment Decisions: Case of Turkish Equity Investors," International Journal of Business and Social Research, MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, vol. 5(1), pages 15-32, January.
    10. Sadka, Gil & Sadka, Ronnie, 2009. "Predictability and the earnings-returns relation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 87-106, October.
    11. Eldomiaty, Tarek & Saeed, Yasmeen & Hammam, Rasha & AboulSoud, Salma, 2020. "The associations between stock prices, inflation rates, interest rates are still persistent: Empirical evidence from stock duration model," Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, Universidad ESAN, vol. 25(49), pages 149-161.

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