IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/finrev/v31y1996i4p809-30.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Expected Inflation, Interest Rates, and Stock Returns

Author

Listed:
  • Domian, Dale L
  • Gilster, John E
  • Louton, David A

Abstract

This paper documents a long-lived asymmetrical relationship between interest rate changes and subsequent stock returns. Drops in interest rates are followed by twelve months of excess stock returns, while increases in interest rates have little effect. The results are robust to the choices of short-term interest rate and stock index. These findings cannot be explained by Geske and Roll's reversed causality argument; nor do they appear to result from periods of unusual interest rates or stock returns. Since interest rate changes are generally used as proxies for changes in expected inflation, the results provide new insights into previous research on inflation and stock returns, and there are important implications for the literature on time-varying risk premia. Copyright 1996 by MIT Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Domian, Dale L & Gilster, John E & Louton, David A, 1996. "Expected Inflation, Interest Rates, and Stock Returns," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 31(4), pages 809-830, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:finrev:v:31:y:1996:i:4:p:809-30
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Doron Nissim & Stephen H. Penman, 2003. "The Association between Changes in Interest Rates, Earnings, and Equity Values," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 20(4), pages 775-804, December.
    2. Kenneth Kalu, 2017. "A Re-Examination of the Asymmetry between Interest Rates and Stock Returns," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(6), pages 23-30, June.
    3. Guan-Ru Chen & Ming-Hung Wu, 2013. "How does Monetary Policy Influence Capital Markets? Using a Threshold Regression Model," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 20(1), pages 31-47, March.
    4. Kaehny, Maximilian & Herweg, Fabian, 2022. "Do Zombies Rise When Interest Rates Fall? A Relationship-Banking Model," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264126, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Clive Coetzee, 2002. "Monetary Conditions and Stock Returns: A South African Case Study," Finance 0205002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Du, Ding, 2006. "Monetary policy, stock returns and inflation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 36-54.
    7. Bwo‐Nung Huang & Chin‐Wei Yang, 2004. "Industrial output and stock price revisited: an application of the multivariate indirect causality model," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(3), pages 347-362, June.
    8. Somayeh Madadpour & Mohsen Asgari, 2019. "The puzzling relationship between stocks return and inflation: a review article," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 66(2), pages 115-145, June.
    9. Vygodina, Anna V., 2006. "Effects of size and international exposure of the US firms on the relationship between stock prices and exchange rates," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 214-223, December.
    10. Chi-Fai Lo & Cho-Hoi Hui, 2016. "Pricing corporate bonds with interest rates following double square-root process," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(03), pages 1-31, September.
    11. Chi-Fai Lo & Cho-Hoi Hui, 2016. "Pricing Corporate Bonds With Interest Rates Following Double Square-root Process," Working Papers 112016, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    12. Fabian Herweg & Maximilian Kähny, 2022. "Do Zombies Rise when Interest Rates Fall? A Relationship Banking Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 9628, CESifo.
    13. Zaremba, Adam & Cakici, Nusret & Bianchi, Robert J. & Long, Huaigang, 2023. "Interest rate changes and the cross-section of global equity returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:finrev:v:31:y:1996:i:4:p:809-30. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/efaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.