IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/amposc/v62y2018i1p230-244.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Have Your Cake and Eat It Too? Cointegration and Dynamic Inference from Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew Q. Philips

Abstract

Although recent articles have stressed the importance of testing for unit roots and cointegration in time‐series analysis, practitioners have been left without a straightforward procedure to implement this advice. I propose using the autoregressive distributed lag model and bounds cointegration test as an approach to dealing with some of the most commonly encountered issues in time‐series analysis. Through Monte Carlo experiments, I show that this procedure performs better than existing cointegration tests under a variety of situations. I illustrate how to implement this strategy with two step‐by‐step replication examples. To further aid users, I have designed software programs in order to test and dynamically model the results from this approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Q. Philips, 2018. "Have Your Cake and Eat It Too? Cointegration and Dynamic Inference from Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 62(1), pages 230-244, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:62:y:2018:i:1:p:230-244
    DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12318
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12318
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/ajps.12318?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sy-Hoa Ho & Jamel Saadaoui, 2021. "Symmetric and asymmetric effects of exchange rates on money demand: empirical evidence from Vietnam," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(34), pages 3948-3961, July.
    2. Ousama Ben-Salha & Abdelaziz Hakimi & Taha Zaghdoudi & Hassan Soltani & Mariem Nsaibi, 2022. "Assessing the Impact of Fossil Fuel Prices on Renewable Energy in China Using the Novel Dynamic ARDL Simulations Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-17, August.
    3. Rita Yi Man Li & Ka Yi Cheng & Muhammad Shoaib, 2018. "Walled Buildings, Sustainability, and Housing Prices: An Artificial Neural Network Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-17, April.
    4. Tufail, Saira & Alvi, Shahzad & Hoang, Viet-Ngu & Wilson, Clevo, 2024. "The effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policies of the US, EU, and China on global green investment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    5. Ali Kagalwala & Andrew Q. Philips & Guy D. Whitten, 2021. "What About the Rest of the Pie? A Dynamic Compositional Approach to Modeling Inequality," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1534-1552, July.
    6. Ousmane Traoré, 2021. "The relationship between health poverty and income poverty in Sub-Saharan African countries: evidence from index correlations," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(10), pages 1-19, October.
    7. Sy Hoa Ho & Jamel Saadaoui, 2019. "Symmetric and asymmetric effects of exchange rates on money demand: Empirical evidence from Vietnam," Working Papers hal-02421007, HAL.
    8. Ahmed, Walid M.A. & Sleem, Mohamed A.E., 2023. "Short- and long-run determinants of the price behavior of US clean energy stocks: A dynamic ARDL simulations approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    9. Ricardo Barradas & João Alcobia, 2024. "Determinants Of The Portuguese External Imbalances: The Lens Of Post-Keynesian Economics," Working Papers REM 2024/0334, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    10. David E. Allen & Michael McAleer, 2020. "A Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) Analysis of West Texas Intermediate Oil Prices and the DOW JONES Index," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-11, August.
    11. Hassan B. Ghassan & Hassan R. Alhajhoj & Faruk Balli, 2022. "Bi-demographic and current account dynamics using SVAR model: evidence from Saudi Arabia," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1327-1363, August.
    12. Clayton Webb & Suzanna Linn & Matthew J. Lebo, 2020. "Beyond the Unit Root Question: Uncertainty and Inference," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 64(2), pages 275-292, April.
    13. Alanda Venter & Roula Inglesi-Lotz, 2022. "The Role of Institutions on the Global Economy-Emissions Nexus," Working Papers 202253, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    14. Adedoyin, Festus Fatai & Mavengere, Nicholas & Mutanga, Alfred, 2022. "A simulation experiment on ICT and patent intensity in South Africa: An application of the novel dynamic ARDL machine learning model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    15. Zhang, Hongsheng & Xiong, Peizhi & Yang, Shangzhao & Yu, Jinna, 2023. "Renewable energy utilization, green finance and agricultural land expansion in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    16. Abbasi, Kashif Raza & Adedoyin, Festus Fatai & Abbas, Jaffar & Hussain, Khadim, 2021. "The impact of energy depletion and renewable energy on CO2 emissions in Thailand: Fresh evidence from the novel dynamic ARDL simulation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 1439-1450.
    17. Bakker, Vincent & Van Vliet, Olaf, 2019. "Social Investment, Employment Outcomes and Policy and Institutional Complementarities: A Comparative Analysis across 26 OECD countries," MPRA Paper 96140, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Beckert, Jens & Arndt, H. Lukas R., 2024. "The Greek tragedy: Narratives and imagined futures in the Greek sovereign debt crisis," MPIfG Discussion Paper 24/4, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
    19. Galindo, Arturo J. & Steiner, Roberto, 2022. "Asymmetric interest rate transmission in an inflation-targeting framework: The case of Colombia," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 3(3).
    20. Emam, Md Ali & Chen, Tinggui & Leibrecht, Markus, 2021. "Inward Worker Remittances and Economic Growth: The Case of Bangladesh," Asian Journal of Applied Economics, Kasetsart University, Center for Applied Economics Research, vol. 28(2).
    21. Rasool Dehghanzadeh Shahabad & Mehmet Balcilar, 2022. "Modelling the Dynamic Interaction between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Commodity Prices in India: The Dynamic Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-21, May.
    22. Jorge A. Acevedo-Ramos & Carlos F. Valencia & Carlos D. Valencia, 2023. "The Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis for Colombia: Impact of Economic Development on Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Ecological Footprint," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-23, February.
    23. Berger, Jurij & Brümmer, Bernhard & Fiankor, Dela-Dem & Kopp, Thomas, 2021. "Sugar market policies in the EU and international sugar trade," DARE Discussion Papers 2105, Georg-August University of Göttingen, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development (DARE).
    24. Alberto Di Iorio & Marco Fanari, 2020. "Break-even inflation rates: the Italian case," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 578, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    25. Olivier Jacques & Alain Noel, 2022. "Austerity Reduces Public Health Investment," CIRANO Working Papers 2022s-02, CIRANO.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:62:y:2018:i:1:p:230-244. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1540-5907 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.