The impact of energy depletion and renewable energy on CO2 emissions in Thailand: Fresh evidence from the novel dynamic ARDL simulation

Thailand's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) intends to minimize CO2 emissions by 20–25%. Similarly, to focus on achieving the Paris Agreement's long-term target of remaining well below 2 °C, aggressive mitigation steps are necessary beyond 2030. Given the importance, the study examines the impact of energy depletion rate, renewable energy consumption, depletion rate of non-renewable energy, and GDP on CO2 emissions in Thailand from 1980 to 2018. The research using a novel dynamic ARDL simulations model [1] and frequency domain causality (FDC) test. The empirical outcomes indicate that the pace of depletion has a significant adverse impact on CO2 emissions both in the long run and short run. Additionally, we found that renewable energy has a negative and statistically significant impact on CO2 emissions in the short run. However, the depletion rate of non-renewable energy and GDP revealed a positive and statistically substantial effects on CO2 emissions in the short and long run. Also, the FDC test confirmed the short, medium, and long-run causality among DR, RE, DRNRE, and CO2 emission. The findings show that without a radical shift in Thailand's economic environment and energy infrastructure, the nation will have to face high costs in decreasing its CO2 emission.