IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/amposc/v53y2009i3p621-632.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

China's Local Political Budget Cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Gang Guo

Abstract

This article examines the political budget cycles in Chinese counties. The shift to a more performance‐based cadre evaluation and mobility system during the reform era has created an incentive structure for local leaders to increase government spending at strategically important time points during their tenure to enhance the prospect of official promotion. Such expenditures help local leaders to impress their superiors with economic and political achievements, especially those visible and quantifiable large‐scale development projects. At the same time, economic and fiscal decentralization increased the capacity of local leaders to influence government budget expenditures as the need rises. The hypothesized curvilinear relationship between a leader's time in office and increased spending was tested using a comprehensive data set of all Chinese counties from 1997 through 2002. The panel data analysis shows that growth in local government spending per capita is the fastest during a leader's third and fourth years in office.

Suggested Citation

  • Gang Guo, 2009. "China's Local Political Budget Cycles," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(3), pages 621-632, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:53:y:2009:i:3:p:621-632
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00390.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00390.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00390.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bunce, Valerie Jane, 1980. "The Succession Connection: Policy Cycles and Political Change in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 74(4), pages 966-977, December.
    2. Mathias Dewatripont & Ian Jewitt & Jean Tirole, 1999. "The Economics of Career Concerns, Part II: Application to Missions and Accountability of Government Agencies," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 66(1), pages 199-217.
    3. Jin, Hehui & Qian, Yingyi & Weingast, Barry R., 2005. "Regional decentralization and fiscal incentives: Federalism, Chinese style," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(9-10), pages 1719-1742, September.
    4. Li, Hongbin & Zhou, Li-An, 2005. "Political turnover and economic performance: the incentive role of personnel control in China," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(9-10), pages 1743-1762, September.
    5. Susanne Lohmann, 1998. "Rationalizing the Political Business Cycle: A Workhorse Model," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 1-17, March.
    6. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2002. "Information and the Change in the Paradigm in Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 460-501, June.
    7. Mathias Dewatripont & Ian Jewitt & Jean Tirole, 1999. "The Economics of Career Concerns, Part II: Application to Missions and Accountability of Government Agencies," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(1), pages 199-217.
    8. James E. Alt & David Dreyer Lassen, 2006. "Transparency, Political Polarization, and Political Budget Cycles in OECD Countries," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(3), pages 530-550, July.
    9. Roeder, Philip G., 1985. "Do New Soviet Leaders Really Make a Difference? Rethinking the “Succession Connection”," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 79(4), pages 958-976, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Wen, 2020. "Political incentives and local government spending multiplier: Evidence for Chinese provinces (1978–2016)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 59-71.
    2. de Janvry, Alain & He, Guojun & Sadoulet, Elisabeth & Wang, Shaoda & Zhang, Qiong, 2020. "Performance Evaluation, Influence Activities, and Bureaucratic Work Behavior: Evidence from China," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt30z1q8nw, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    3. Cai, Meina & Liu, Pengfei & Wang, Hui, 2020. "Political trust, risk preferences, and policy support: A study of land-dispossessed villagers in China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    4. Zhang, Mengtao & Chen, Wenchuan & Kou, Aidi & Wu, Yanjun, 2023. "Promotion incentives, tenure uncertainty, and local government debt risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    5. Junxue Jia & Jing Ning & Jing Zhang, 2023. "Information transparency, monitoring, and incentives under decentralization: Evidence from China's fiscal reform of “province managing county”," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(2), pages 263-289, March.
    6. Fei Guo & Isabel Kit-Ming Yan, 2021. "Fiscal Decentralization and Fiscal Multiplier in China," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2021_026, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    7. Yu Bai & Yanjun Li, 2022. "Political tournaments and regional growth‐enhancing policies: Evidence from Chinese prefectures," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(5), pages 1358-1385, November.
    8. Lin, Xiaowei & Chen, Sicen & Cheng, Xin & Wang, Jinmei, 2022. "Local government audit and municipal debt risk: Evidence from audit reform in China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    9. Chen, Qianmiao & Huang, Qingyang & Liu, Chang & Wang, Peng, 2022. "Career incentives of local leaders and crisis response: A case study of COVID-19 lockdowns in China," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    10. Yao, Yao & Li, Xue & Smyth, Russell & Zhang, Lin, 2022. "Air pollution and political trust in local government: Evidence from China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    11. Liu, Qijun & Song, Lijie, 2022. "Do intergovernmental transfers boost intergenerational income mobility? Evidence from China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 293-309.
    12. Jackie Zheng Yan & Sea‐Jin Chang, 2018. "The contingent effects of political strategies on firm performance: A political network perspective," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(8), pages 2152-2177, August.
    13. Meng, Tianguang & Su, Zheng, 2021. "When top-down meets bottom-up: Local officials and selective responsiveness within fiscal policymaking in China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    14. Palguta, Ján, 2019. "Political representation and public contracting: Evidence from municipal legislatures," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 411-431.
    15. Pi‐Han Tsai & Chien‐Yu Huang & Tsun‐Feng Chiang, 2020. "Fiscal Expenditure And Industrial Land Price In China: Theory And Evidence," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(4), pages 593-606, October.
    16. Oleg Sidorkin & Dmitriy Vorobyev, 2020. "Extra votes to signal loyalty: regional political cycles and national elections in Russia," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 185(1), pages 183-213, October.
    17. Fi̇li̇z Eryilmaz & Mehmet Mercan, 2015. "Political Budget Cycles: Evidence From Turkey," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 2, pages 5-14, April.
    18. Lu, Wenyi & Zhuang, Shilong & Fan, Siyuan, 2024. "Losing trust when pursuing development: How automation hindered political trust in China?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 406-422.
    19. Jing Wu & Hao Li & Keyang Li, 2020. "Local political chief turnover and economic growth: Evidence from China," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(3), pages 441-466, July.
    20. Liu, Jianhua & Liu, Jingjun & Tang, Zhenyang & Xu, Yue, 2024. "Provincial economic growth and firm excess investment: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    21. Köhler, Ekkehard & Matsusaka, John G. & Wu, Yanhui, 2023. "Street-level responsiveness of city governments in China, Germany, and the United States," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 640-652.
    22. Rohan Chinchwadkar, 2020. "Political Business Cycles, Elections and Entrepreneurial Finance: A Framework," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 18(4), pages 941-954, December.
    23. Jingxia Chai & Yu Hao & Haitao Wu & Yuemiao Yang, 2021. "Do constraints created by economic growth targets benefit sustainable development? Evidence from China," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(8), pages 4188-4205, December.
    24. Chen, Shuo & Qiao, Xue & Zhu, Zhitao, 2021. "Chasing or cheating? Theory and evidence on China's GDP manipulation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 657-671.
    25. Shen, Shiran V & Wang, Qi & Zhang, Bing, 2023. "Regularized Campaigns as a New Institution for Effective Governance," Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, Working Paper Series qt0d83b2rw, Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, University of California.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pi-Han Tsai, 2016. "Fiscal incentives and political budget cycles in China," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 23(6), pages 1030-1073, December.
    2. Hongji Xie & Cunzhi Tian & Fangying Pang, 2023. "Multi-Tasking Policy Coordination and Corporate Environmental Performance: Evidence from China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-22, January.
    3. He, Zhenyu & Tang, Yuwei, 2023. "Local environmental constraints and firms’ export product quality: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    4. Li, Daniel Z. & Li, Zeren & Zhang, Qi, 2023. "Public investment as downward benefit distribution: Theory and evidence from China’s public–private partnership programs," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 103-128.
    5. Maxime Menuet & Patrick Villieu, 2021. "Reputation and the “need for enemies”," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 72(4), pages 1049-1089, November.
    6. Vortherms, Samantha A., 2019. "Disaggregating China’s local political budget cycles: “Righting” the U," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 95-109.
    7. Xue Yang & Yuandi Wang & Die Hu & Yongqiang Gao, 2018. "How industry peers improve your sustainable development? The role of listed firms in environmental strategies," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(8), pages 1313-1333, December.
    8. Xi, Tianyang & Yao, Yang & Zhang, Muyang, 2018. "Capability and opportunism: Evidence from city officials in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 1046-1061.
    9. Alessandra Bonfiglioli & Gino Gancia, 2010. "The political cost of reforms (preliminar version of working paper number 1360: Uncertainty, electoral incentives and political myopia)," Economics Working Papers 1250, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2011.
    10. Chen, Yvonne Jie & Li, Pei & Lu, Yi, 2018. "Career concerns and multitasking local bureaucrats: Evidence of a target-based performance evaluation system in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 84-101.
    11. Cao, Chunfang & Li, Xiaoyang & Xia, Changyuan, 2021. "The complicit role of local government authorities in corporate bribery: Evidence from a tax collection reform in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    12. Ren Wang & Yuxiang Bian & Han Gao & Jie Hou, 2023. "Optimal Environmental Policy for Heterogeneous Governments in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(4), pages 1-12, February.
    13. Simon Burgess & Carol Propper & Marisa Ratto & Emma Tominey, 2017. "Incentives in the Public Sector: Evidence from a Government Agency," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(605), pages 117-141, October.
    14. Dongmin Kong & Ling Zhu & Ni Qin, 2022. "Does corruption shape firm centralisation? Evidence from state‐owned enterprises in China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(3), pages 3365-3395, September.
    15. Li, Lei & Luo, Changtuo, 2023. "Does administrative decentralization promote outward foreign direct investment and productivity? Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    16. Troeger, Vera & Schneider, Christina J., 2012. "Strategic Budgeteering and Debt Allocation," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 85, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    17. Aidt, Toke S. & Mooney, Graham, 2014. "Voting suffrage and the political budget cycle: Evidence from the London Metropolitan Boroughs 1902–1937," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 53-71.
    18. Mikel Berdud & Juan M. Cabasés Hita & Jorge Nieto, 2012. "Motivational Capital and Incentives in Health Care Organisations," Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra 1209, Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra.
    19. Wen, Qiang & Zhang, Teng, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and industrial pollution: The role of environmental supervision by local governments," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    20. Tang, Peng & Shi, Xiaoping & Gao, Jinlong & Feng, Shuyi & Qu, Futian, 2019. "Demystifying the key for intoxicating land finance in China: An empirical study through the lens of government expenditure," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 302-309.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:53:y:2009:i:3:p:621-632. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1540-5907 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.