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Do New Soviet Leaders Really Make a Difference? Rethinking the “Succession Connection”

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  • Roeder, Philip G.

Abstract

According to an increasingly more widely held view, Leninist regimes tend to pump up mass-oriented policies during succession crises. Yet, this empirically based theory contains significant conceptual and methodological flaws, suggesting the need to reexamine the evidence and rethink the thesis. Using the Soviet evidence, a retest of its hypotheses fails to support this thesis. An alternative, consolidation connection is proposed here which considers the impact of political processes upon a General Secretary's capacity to innovate as well as his incentive structure. Tests of these hypotheses show a significantly higher rate of confirmation than the retest of the original thesis.

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  • Roeder, Philip G., 1985. "Do New Soviet Leaders Really Make a Difference? Rethinking the “Succession Connection”," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 79(4), pages 958-976, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:79:y:1985:i:04:p:958-976_23
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    Cited by:

    1. Gang Guo, 2009. "China's Local Political Budget Cycles," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(3), pages 621-632, July.
    2. Vortherms, Samantha A., 2019. "Disaggregating China’s local political budget cycles: “Righting” the U," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 95-109.
    3. Pi-Han Tsai, 2016. "Fiscal incentives and political budget cycles in China," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 23(6), pages 1030-1073, December.

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