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Who Is Mobilized to Vote? A Re‐Analysis of 11 Field Experiments

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  • Kevin Arceneaux
  • David W. Nickerson

Abstract

Many political observers view get‐out‐the‐vote (GOTV) mobilization drives as a way to increase turnout among chronic nonvoters. However, such a strategy assumes that GOTV efforts are effective at increasing turnout in this population, and the extant research offers contradictory evidence regarding the empirical validity of this assumption. We propose a model where only those citizens whose propensity to vote is near the indifference threshold are mobilized to vote and the threshold is determined by the general interest in the election. Our three‐parameter model reconciles prior inconsistent empirical results and argues that low‐propensity voters can be effectively mobilized only in high‐turnout elections. The model is tested on 11 randomized face‐to‐face voter mobilization field experiments in which we specifically analyze whether subjects' baseline propensity to vote conditions the effectiveness of door‐to‐door GOTV canvassing. The evidence is consistent with the model and suggests that face‐to‐face mobilization is better at stimulating turnout among low‐propensity voters in prominent elections than it is in quiescent ones.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin Arceneaux & David W. Nickerson, 2009. "Who Is Mobilized to Vote? A Re‐Analysis of 11 Field Experiments," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(1), pages 1-16, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:53:y:2009:i:1:p:1-16
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2008.00354.x
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    3. Hager, Anselm & Hensel, Lukas & Hermle, Johannes & Roth, Christopher, 2020. "Does Party Competition Affect Political Activism?," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 488, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    4. Salomo Hirvonen & Maarit Lassander & Lauri Sääksvuori & Janne Tukiainen, 2023. "Who is mobilized to vote by short text messages? Evidence from a nationwide field experiment with young voters," Discussion Papers 157, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    5. Rogers, Todd T & Michelson, Melissa R. & Valenzuela, Ali Adam & Malhotra, Neil, 2011. "Text Messages as Mobilization Tools: The Conditional Effect of Habitual Voting and Election Salience," Scholarly Articles 10471523, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    6. León, Gianmarco, 2017. "Turnout, political preferences and information: Experimental evidence from Peru," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 56-71.
    7. Bertoli, Paola & Grembi, Veronica & Morelli, Massimo & Rosso, Anna Cecilia, 2023. "In medio stat virtus? Effective communication and preferences for redistribution in hard times," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 214(C), pages 105-147.
    8. Erkan, Asligul & Fainshmidt, Stav & Judge, William Q., 2016. "Variance decomposition of the country, industry, firm, and firm-year effects on dividend policy," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 1309-1320.
    9. Salomo Hirvonen & Jerome Schafer & Janne Tukiainen, 2022. "Policy Feedback and Civic Engagement: Evidence from the Finnish Basic Income Experiment," Discussion Papers 155, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    10. Valentina A. Bali & Lindon J. Robison & Richard Winder, 2020. "What Motivates People to Vote? The Role of Selfishness, Duty, and Social Motives When Voting," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(4), pages 21582440209, October.
    11. Matthew I. Jones & Antonio D. Sirianni & Feng Fu, 2022. "Polarization, abstention, and the median voter theorem," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-12, December.
    12. Watanabe, Hajime & Maruyama, Takuya, 2023. "A Bayesian instrumental variable model for multinomial choice with correlated alternatives," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    13. J. Patrick Rhamey Jr & Bryan R. Early, 2013. "Going for the gold: Status-seeking behavior and Olympic performance," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 244-261, September.
    14. Daniel Kling & Thomas Stratmann, 2016. "The Efficacy of Political Advertising: A Voter Participation Field Experiment with Multiple Robo Calls and Controls for Selection Effects," CESifo Working Paper Series 6195, CESifo.
    15. Tobias Streicher & Sascha L. Schmidt & Dominik Schreyer, 2019. "Referenda on Hosting the Olympics: What Drives Voter Turnout?," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 20(5), pages 627-653, June.
    16. Firoz Ahmed & Roland Hodler & Asad Islam, 2024. "Partisan Effects of Information Campaigns in Competitive Authoritarian Elections: Evidence from Bangladesh," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(660), pages 1303-1330.
    17. Ethan Kaplan & Fernando Saltiel & Sergio S. Urzúa, 2019. "Voting for Democracy: Chile's Plebiscito and the Electoral Participation of a Generation," NBER Working Papers 26440, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Bailey, Michael & Hopkins, Daniel J. & Rogers, Todd, 2013. "Unresponsive and Unpersuaded: The Unintended Consequences of Voter Persuasion Efforts," Working Paper Series rwp13-034, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    19. Franziska Marquart & Andreas C Goldberg & Claes H de Vreese, 2020. "‘This time I’m (not) voting’: A comprehensive overview of campaign factors influencing turnout at European Parliament elections," European Union Politics, , vol. 21(4), pages 680-705, December.

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