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The impact of natural disaster risk on the return of agricultural futures

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  • Hua, Renhai
  • Liu, Qingfu
  • Tse, Yiuman
  • Yu, Qin

Abstract

This paper constructs a natural disaster risk index based on natural disaster keywords from news media that can reflect weather, crop diseases, epidemics, and other threats to agricultural prices in China. We then examine the response of agricultural futures returns to the change in natural disaster risk. We find that natural disaster risk has a significant positive impact on soybean, wheat, corn, and sugar futures returns during normal and bullish market conditions. We further investigate the moderating effect of policy intervention and show that the marginal effect of natural disaster risk on soybean futures returns (but not other agricultural futures) is influenced by policy intervention. These results indicate that the adjustment of natural disaster risk assessment will benefit portfolio management.

Suggested Citation

  • Hua, Renhai & Liu, Qingfu & Tse, Yiuman & Yu, Qin, 2023. "The impact of natural disaster risk on the return of agricultural futures," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:87:y:2023:i:c:s1049007823000520
    DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2023.101632
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