IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/agribz/v23y2007i1p57-83.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Composite price expectations: An empirical analysis for the Spanish horticultural sector

Author

Listed:
  • Emilio Galdeano-Gómez

    (Departamento de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Almería, La Cañada de San Urbano, s|n, 04120 Almería, Spain)

Abstract

This article aims to determine the extent to which available information is used to formulate price expectations in the horticultural sector in southeastern Spain. In recent decades this sector, which exports mainly to European Union (E.U.) food distribution centers, has witnessed a greater correlation between production and marketing due to the influence of cooperatives. This has led to an increase in the availability and use of information for forecasting the different variables. This analysis proposes the combination of rational expectation models and lagged price expectation models. It also compares the proposed model with other traditional expectation models. The results suggest that current market information (rational expectation viewpoint) is being used complementary to lagged prices and show the suitability of a rational composite expectation model. [EconLit classification: D840, Q110, Q130]. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Agribusiness 23: 57-83, 2007.

Suggested Citation

  • Emilio Galdeano-Gómez, 2007. "Composite price expectations: An empirical analysis for the Spanish horticultural sector," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 57-83.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:agribz:v:23:y:2007:i:1:p:57-83
    DOI: 10.1002/agr.20113
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/agr.20113
    File Function: Link to full text; subscription required
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/agr.20113?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Plott, Charles R & Sunder, Shyam, 1988. "Rational Expectations and the Aggregation of Diverse Information in Laboratory Security Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1085-1118, September.
    2. Minoru Tada, 1991. "Econometric analysis of expected price formation," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 5(1), pages 59-73, January.
    3. Orazem, Peter & Miranowski, John, 1986. "An Indirect Test for the Specification of Expectation Regimes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(4), pages 603-609, November.
    4. Just, Richard E, 1977. "Estimation of an Adaptive Expectations Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 18(3), pages 629-644, October.
    5. Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-735, September.
    6. Jerry Green, 1977. "The Non-existence of Informational Equilibria," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 44(3), pages 451-463.
    7. Allen M. Featherstone & Bruce J. Sherrick, 1992. "Financing Vertically Coordinated Agricultural Firms," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 74(5), pages 1232-1237.
    8. Sheffrin,Steven M., 1996. "Rational Expectations," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521479394, September.
    9. Laurence Broze & Christian Gourieroux & Ariane Szafarz, 1990. "Reduced Forms of Rational Expectations Models," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/647, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    10. George P. Zanias, 1987. "Adjustment Costs and Rational Expectations: An Application to a Tobacco Export Model," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 69(1), pages 22-29.
    11. Satheesh V. Aradhyula & Matthew T. Holt, 1989. "Risk Behavior and Rational Expectations in the U.S. Broiler Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(4), pages 892-902.
    12. Parrott, Scott D. & McIntosh, Christopher S., 1996. "Nonconstant Price Expectations and Acreage Response: The Case of Cotton Production in Georgia," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(1), pages 203-210, July.
    13. Weaver, Robert D. & Chattin, Peter & Banerjee, Aniruddha, 1989. "Market Structure And The Dynamics Of Retail Food Prices," Northeastern Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 18(2), pages 1-11, October.
    14. Shonkwiler, John Scott & Hinckley, Suzanne, 1985. "A Generalized Supply Response/Factor Demand Model And Its Application To The Feeder Cattle Market," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 10(2), pages 1-9, December.
    15. Mullineaux, Donald J, 1978. "On Testing for Rationality: Another Look at the Livingston Price Expectations Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(2), pages 329-336, April.
    16. Tada, Minoru, 1991. "Econometric analysis of expected price formation," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 59-73, January.
    17. Holt, Matthew T & Johnson, Stanley R, 1989. "Bounded Price Variation and Rational Expectations in an Endogenous Switching Model of the U.S. Corn Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 605-613, November.
    18. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Perez-Mesa, Juan Carlos & Galdeano-Gomez, Emilio & Aznar-Sanchez, Jose A., 2011. "Management System for Harvest Scheduling: The Case of Horticultural Production in Southeast Spain," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 14(4), pages 1-20, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Burton, Diana M. & Love, H. Alan, 1996. "A Review of Alternative Expectations Regimes in Commodity Markets: Specification, Estimation, and Hypothesis Testing Using Structural Models," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 213-231, October.
    2. Matthew T. Holt & Andrew M. McKenzie, 2003. "Quasi-rational and ex ante price expectations in commodity supply models: an empirical analysis of the US broiler market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 407-426.
    3. Peter Bossaerts, 2001. "Experiments with Financial Markets: Implications for Asset Pricing Theory," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 45(1), pages 17-32, March.
    4. Nuzzo, Simone & Morone, Andrea, 2017. "Asset markets in the lab: A literature review," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 42-50.
    5. Lawrence Choo & Todd R. Kaplan & Ro’i Zultan, 2019. "Information aggregation in Arrow–Debreu markets: an experiment," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 22(3), pages 625-652, September.
    6. Corgnet, Brice & DeSantis, Mark & Porter, David, 2020. "The distribution of information and the price efficiency of markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    7. Brice Corgnet & Cary Deck & Mark DeSantis & Kyle Hampton & Erik O. Kimbrough, 2023. "When Do Security Markets Aggregate Dispersed Information?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(6), pages 3697-3729, June.
    8. Winter-Nelson, Alex, 1996. "Expectations, supply response, and marketing boards: An example from Kenya," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 21-31, April.
    9. Angelini, Giovanni & De Angelis, Luca & Singleton, Carl, 2022. "Informational efficiency and behaviour within in-play prediction markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 282-299.
    10. Brice Corgnet & Cary Deck & Mark DeSantis & David Porter, 2022. "Forecasting Skills in Experimental Markets: Illusion or Reality?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(7), pages 5216-5232, July.
    11. Corgnet, Brice & DeSantis, Mark & Porter, David, 2021. "Information aggregation and the cognitive make-up of market participants," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    12. Nasreen Nawaz, 2021. "Efficiency on the dynamic adjustment path in a financial market," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(1), pages 49-74, January.
    13. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
    14. Michael P. Keane & David E. Runkle, 1989. "Are economic forecasts rational?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 13(Spr), pages 26-33.
    15. Frieden, B. Roy & Hawkins, Raymond J., 2010. "Asymmetric information and economics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(2), pages 287-295.
    16. David V. Budescu & Boris Maciejovsky, 2005. "The Effect of Payoff Feedback and Information Pooling on Reasoning Errors: Evidence from Experimental Markets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(12), pages 1829-1843, December.
    17. Weber, Martin & Welfens, Frank, 2007. "How do Markets React to Fundamental Shocks? An Experimental Analysis on Underreaction and Momentum," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 07-42, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    18. Neumark, David & Leonard, Jonathan S, 1993. "Inflation Expectations and the Structural Shift in Aggregate Labor-Cost Determination in the 1980s," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(4), pages 786-800, November.
    19. Shyam Sunder, 1989. "Proof that in an efficient market, event studies can provide no systematic guidance for revision of accounting standards and disclosure policy for the purpose of maximizing shareholder wealth," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(2), pages 452-460, March.
    20. Keser, Claudia & Markstädter, Andreas, 2014. "Informational asymmetries in laboratory asset markets with state-dependent fundamentals," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 207, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:agribz:v:23:y:2007:i:1:p:57-83. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1002/(ISSN)1520-6297 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.