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Mapping the Parameter Space of Simulated Lotteries

Author

Listed:
  • Gere István

    (Department of Physics, Babeș-Bolyai University, Cluj-Napoca, 400347, Romania)

Abstract

This study presents an econophysics based approach to the study of lotteries. By treating lotteries as complex systems we analyse the guiding dynamics of real-world lotteries. We found that the growth of the jackpot, that can be won, between two successive draws is proportional to its preceding value. This growth is best described as a linear function with two parameters a and b reflecting foundational player pool sales and the excitement generated by the current jackpot respectively. A computer simulation considering additional parameters (such as the price of a ticket: s, and the format of the lottery: p) is used to study the statistical features of simulated lotteries covering a vast parameter space. This approach enables us to construct a detailed map of how various parameters influence lottery behaviour by examining the statistical characteristics of the simulated lotteries. The findings emphasize the need for thoughtful pricing strategies in real-world lotteries and suggest that simulations can assist organizers in making informed decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Gere István, 2023. "Mapping the Parameter Space of Simulated Lotteries," Journal of Social and Economic Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 12(2), pages 38-52, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:jsesro:v:12:y:2023:i:2:p:38-52:n:4
    DOI: 10.2478/jses-2023-0008
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adrian Dragulescu & Victor M. Yakovenko, 2000. "Statistical mechanics of money," Papers cond-mat/0001432, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2000.
    2. Baker, Rose & Forrest, David & Pérez, Levi, 2020. "Modelling demand for lotto using a novel method of correcting for endogeneity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 302-308.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    econophysics; lottery simulations; computer simulations; complex systems; lottery jackpot dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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