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Nominal exchange rates EUR/GRD and EUR/ITL in the context of leaving the euro zone by Greece and Italy

Author

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  • Dąbrowska-Gruszczyńska Katarzyna

    (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, Poland)

  • Gruszczyński Marcin

    (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, Poland)

Abstract

Aim/purpose – The aim of this paper is to present two cases of crises in Greece and Italy and to evaluate the shadow exchange rates of hypothetical new currencies (re)introduced after Grexit and Italexit. Design/methodology/approach – Both shadow exchange rates are estimated using speculative pressure index concept that emphasizes the importance of changes in foreign exchange reserves and interest rate differentials in the absence of an independent nominal exchange rate. The research sample covers Greece in 1989-2020 and Italy in 1989-2020. Findings – The research presented the estimation of shadow exchange rates EUR/GRD and EUR/ITL during the euro zone membership period. Leaving the euro area one can expect the following market rates: EUR/GRD 600 and EUR/ITL 1850. That would mean 75% depreciation and 5% appreciation to the current euro parities EUR/GRD 340.75, and EUR/ITL 1936.27, respectively. Research implications/limitations – After potential Grexit Greek authorities could expect significant nominal depreciation of a new currency (or should introduce it with a substantial discount). In the case of Italexit, the new currency would preserve its nominal value. The limitations of the research methodology are: a long period of the analysis covers structural changes of financial markets, crisis events, political factors (e.g., QE programs). Originality/value/contribution – The originality of this approach lies in the combination of two important economic concepts – the idea of shadow exchange rate and the index of speculative pressure. Combined together they help to prepare the methodology of shadow exchange rates evaluation for currencies that are currently in the common currency system (e.g., currency union). These results can help in economic and political discussions on effects of leaving the currency union.

Suggested Citation

  • Dąbrowska-Gruszczyńska Katarzyna & Gruszczyński Marcin, 2021. "Nominal exchange rates EUR/GRD and EUR/ITL in the context of leaving the euro zone by Greece and Italy," Journal of Economics and Management, Sciendo, vol. 43(1), pages 293-316, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:jecman:v:43:y:2021:i:1:p:293-316:n:4
    DOI: 10.22367/jem.2021.43.14
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Athanassiou, Phoebus, 2009. "Withdrawal and expulsion from the EU and EMU: some reflections," Legal Working Paper Series 10, European Central Bank.
    2. Bagnai, Alberto & Granville, Brigitte & Mongeau Ospina, Christian A., 2017. "Withdrawal of Italy from the euro area: Stochastic simulations of a structural macroeconometric model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 524-538.
    3. Kent Osband & Caroline Van Rijckeghem, 2000. "Safety from Currency Crashes," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(2), pages 1-4.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    nominal exchange rates; euro area; financial crises;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F38 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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