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Multistate projections of Australia’s Indigenous population: interacting area group and identification status change

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  • James Raymer
  • Yanlin Shi
  • James O’Donnell
  • Nicholas Biddle

Abstract

In this paper, we develop a multistate projection model that allows the Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (Indigenous) population to move between area classifications and Indigenous self-identification statuses. We combine data from the Australian Census Longitudinal Dataset and the 2011 census to estimate the transitions between 2006 and 2011. This information is then included in a multistate population projection model to illustrate the effects of migration and identification change over time in relation to natural increase (i.e., births–deaths). The results show how patterns of identification change differ by both age and type of migration, and how migration and identification change affect patterns of Indigenous population change across major cities, regional areas, and remote areas in Australia.

Suggested Citation

  • James Raymer & Yanlin Shi & James O’Donnell & Nicholas Biddle, 2018. "Multistate projections of Australia’s Indigenous population: interacting area group and identification status change," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 16(1), pages 135-162.
    • Handle: RePEc:vid:yearbk:v:16:y:2018:i:1:p:135-162
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    1. Thomas Bauer & Gil S. Epstein & Ira N. Gang, 2007. "The Influence of Stocks and Flows on Migrants’ Location Choices," Research in Labor Economics, in: Aspects of Worker Well-Being, pages 199-229, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    2. Nicholas Biddle & Monica Howlett & Boyd Hunter & Yin Paradies, 2013. "Labour market and other discrimination facing Indigenous Australians," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 16(1), pages 91-113.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alfred Michael Dockery & Mark N. Harris & Nicholas Holyoak & Ranjodh B. Singh, 2021. "A methodology for projecting sparse populations and its application to remote Indigenous communities," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 37-61, January.
    2. Michaela Potančoková & Guillaume Marois, 2020. "Projecting future births with fertility differentials reflecting women’s educational and migrant characteristics," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 18(1), pages 141-166.

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