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Towards a reconceptualising of population ageing in emerging markets

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  • Stuart Gietel-Basten
  • Sergei Scherbov
  • Warren Sanderson

Abstract

Variously defined, the ‘emerging markets’ [EMs] are frequently held up as the countries that will shape global economic development in the 21st century. However, it is also often said that population ageing could limit growth in many EMs. In this paper, we explore the conventional measurements employed to demonstrate population ageing in EMs, and then move on to discuss whether these measurements are, indeed, ‘fit for purpose’ when studying EMs. Drawing on the literature on ‘prospective ageing’ (pioneered by Sanderson and Scherbov), we present an alternative set of ageing measurements based on a boundary for ‘dependency’ drawn from remaining life expectancy rather than chronological age. Using these measurements, population ageing – at least as defined here – can be seen as a much more manageable prospect for many EMs. We also examine the challenges and the opportunities for EMs associated with population ageing, and consider their potential advantages relative to the EU and North America in managing this trend.

Suggested Citation

  • Stuart Gietel-Basten & Sergei Scherbov & Warren Sanderson, 2016. "Towards a reconceptualising of population ageing in emerging markets," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 14(1), pages 041-66.
    • Handle: RePEc:vid:yearbk:v:14:y:2016:i:1:p:041-66
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lutz, Wolfgang & Butz, William P. & KC, Samir (ed.), 2014. "World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198703167.
    2. Warren C. Sanderson & Sergei Scherbov, 2007. "A new perspective on population aging," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 16(2), pages 27-58.
    3. Peter Zweifel & Stefan Felder & Markus Meiers, 1999. "Ageing of population and health care expenditure: a red herring?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(6), pages 485-496, September.
    4. Warren C. Sanderson & Sergei Scherbov, 2013. "The Characteristics Approach to the Measurement of Population Aging," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 39(4), pages 673-685, December.
    5. Warren C. Sanderson & Sergei Scherbov, 2005. "Average remaining lifetimes can increase as human populations age," Nature, Nature, vol. 435(7043), pages 811-813, June.
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