IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/vid/yearbk/v13y2015i1p241-262.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The demography of human development and climate change vulnerability: A projection exercise

Author

Listed:
  • Jesús Crespo Cuaresma
  • Wolfgang Lutz

Abstract

We propose a methodological framework aimed at obtaining projections of the Human Development Index (HDI) that can be used to assess the degree of vulnerability of future societies to extreme climatic events. By combining recent developments in the modeling and projection of population by age, sex, and educational attainment, our modeling set-up ensures that the different components of the HDI are projected using a self-contained, consistent modeling effort. We develop scenarios that correspond to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) developed in the context of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and thus present a projection framework that can be used to expand the evaluation of the potential mitigation and adaptation challenges associated with climate change in general, and with vulnerability to natural disasters in particular.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Wolfgang Lutz, 2015. "The demography of human development and climate change vulnerability: A projection exercise," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 13(1), pages 241-262.
    • Handle: RePEc:vid:yearbk:v:13:y:2015:i:1:p:241-262
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://austriaca.at/0xc1aa5576_0x00344f59.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lutz, Wolfgang & Butz, William P. & KC, Samir (ed.), 2014. "World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198703167.
    2. Satya R. Chakravarty, 2003. "A Generalized Human Development Index," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 99-114, February.
    3. Benhabib, Jess & Spiegel, Mark M., 1994. "The role of human capital in economic development evidence from aggregate cross-country data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 143-173, October.
    4. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Tapas Mishra, 2011. "The role of age‐structured education data for economic growth forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 249-267, March.
    5. Jeni Klugman & Francisco Rodríguez & Hyung-Jin Choi, 2011. "The HDI 2010: new controversies, old critiques," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 9(2), pages 249-288, June.
    6. Neil Adger, W., 1999. "Social Vulnerability to Climate Change and Extremes in Coastal Vietnam," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 249-269, February.
    7. Ravallion, Martin, 2012. "Troubling tradeoffs in the Human Development Index," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 201-209.
    8. Martin Ravallion, 2011. "The human development index: a response to Klugman, Rodriguez and Choi," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 9(3), pages 475-478, September.
    9. Torri, Tiziana & Vaupel, James W., 2012. "Forecasting life expectancy in an international context," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 519-531.
    10. Satya Chakravarty, 2011. "A reconsideration of the tradeoffs in the new human development index," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 9(3), pages 471-474, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kedi Liu & Ranran Wang & Inge Schrijver & Rutger Hoekstra, 2024. "Can we project well-being? Towards integral well-being projections in climate models and beyond," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Samuel Sellers, 2020. "Cause of death variation under the shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(1), pages 559-577, November.
    3. Mark Stewart, 2023. "Risk‐based thinking for extreme events: What do terrorism and climate change have in common?," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 26(4), pages 467-484, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mariano Luque & Salvador Pérez-Moreno & Beatriz Rodríguez, 2016. "Measuring Human Development: A Multi-criteria Approach," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 713-733, February.
    2. Martin Ravallion, 2011. "The human development index: a response to Klugman, Rodriguez and Choi," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 9(3), pages 475-478, September.
    3. Mehmet Pinar, 2019. "Multidimensional Well-Being and Inequality Across the European Regions with Alternative Interactions Between the Well-Being Dimensions," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 144(1), pages 31-72, July.
    4. Ricardo Martínez, 2016. "Inequality Decomposition and Human Development," Journal of Human Development and Capabilities, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 415-425, July.
    5. Débora Pereira & Caroline Mota, 2016. "Human Development Index Based on ELECTRE TRI-C Multicriteria Method: An Application in the City of Recife," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 125(1), pages 19-45, January.
    6. Panagiotis Ravanos & Giannis Karagiannis, 2021. "A VEA Benefit-of-the-Doubt Model for the HDI," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 155(1), pages 27-46, May.
    7. Leandro Prados de la Escosura, 2021. "Augmented human development in the age of globalization," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 74(4), pages 946-975, November.
    8. Mehmet Pinar, 2022. "Choquet-Integral Aggregation Method to Aggregate Social Indicators to Account for Interactions: An Application to the Human Development Index," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 159(1), pages 1-53, January.
    9. Lukas Schrott & Martin Gaechter & Engelbert Theurl, 2015. "Regional Development in Advanced Countries: A Within-country Application of the Human Development Index for Austria," DANUBE: Law and Economics Review, European Association Comenius - EACO, issue 1, pages 1-23, March.
    10. Satya R. Chakravarty & Nachiketa Chattopadhyay & Conchita D’Ambrosio, 2022. "An Axiomatic Approach to the Measurement of Comparative Female Disadvantage," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 164(2), pages 747-772, November.
    11. Francesco Tajani & Maria Rosaria Guarini & Francesco Sica & Rossana Ranieri & Debora Anelli, 2022. "Multi-Criteria Analysis and Sustainable Accounting. Defining Indices of Sustainability under Choquet’s Integral," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-15, February.
    12. Jaya Krishnakumar, 2018. "Trade-Offs in a Multidimensional Human Development Index," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 138(3), pages 991-1022, August.
    13. Enrico Casadio Tarabusi & Giulio Guarini, 2016. "Level Dependence of the Adjustment for Unbalance and Inequality for the Human Development Index," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 126(2), pages 527-553, March.
    14. Luis Bertola & Laura Gatti, 2021. "New historical estimates of the human development index," Documentos de trabajo 66, Programa de Historia Económica, FCS, Udelar.
    15. Jeni Klugman & Francisco Rodríguez & Hyung-Jin Choi, 2011. "The HDI 2010: new controversies, old critiques," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 9(2), pages 249-288, June.
    16. Thu Hien DAO & Frédéric DOCQUIER & Mathilde MAUREL & Pierre SCHAUS, 2017. "Global Migration in the 20th and 21st Centuries: the Unstoppable Force of Demography," Working Paper 96d89f28-0e80-4703-9b33-6, Agence française de développement.
    17. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Wolfgang Lutz & Warren Sanderson, 2014. "Is the Demographic Dividend an Education Dividend?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(1), pages 299-315, February.
    18. Peter Huber & Doris Oberdabernig & Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Anna Raggl, 2015. "Migration in an Ageing Europe: What are the Challenges? WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 79," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 57886, January.
    19. Leandro Prados de la Escosura, 2015. "World Human Development: 1870–2007," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 61(2), pages 220-247, June.
    20. Yang, Lin, 2018. "Measuring well-being: a multidimensional index integrating subjective well-being and preferences," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87789, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vid:yearbk:v:13:y:2015:i:1:p:241-262. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bernhard Rengs (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.oeaw.ac.at/vid/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.