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How Does Incarceration Affect Reoffending? Estimating the Dose-Response Function

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  • Evan K. Rose
  • Yotam Shem-Tov

Abstract

We study the causal effect of incarceration on reoffending using discontinuities in North Carolina’s sentencing guidelines. A regression discontinuity analysis shows that 1 year of incarceration causes a reduction in the likelihood of being reincarcerated within 3, 5, and 8 years from sentencing by 44%, 29%, and 21%, respectively. To parse the potentially heterogeneous dose response relationship underlying these effects, we develop an econometric model of prison sentences and recidivism. We find that incarceration has meaningful reoffending-reducing average effects that diminish in incarceration length. As a result, budget-neutral reductions in sentence length combined with increases in incarceration rates can decrease recidivism.

Suggested Citation

  • Evan K. Rose & Yotam Shem-Tov, 2021. "How Does Incarceration Affect Reoffending? Estimating the Dose-Response Function," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(12), pages 3302-3356.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/716561
    DOI: 10.1086/716561
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    Cited by:

    1. Sohag, Kazi & Islam, Md. Monirul & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2024. "From policy stringency to environmental resilience: Unraveling the dose-response dynamics of environmental parameters in OECD countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    2. Andrew Jordan & Ezra Karger & Derek Neal, 2021. "Heterogeneous Impacts of Sentencing Decisions," Working Paper Series WP 2022-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, revised 12 Feb 2022.
    3. Yotam Shem‐Tov & Steven Raphael & Alissa Skog, 2024. "Can Restorative Justice Conferencing Reduce Recidivism? Evidence From the Make‐it‐Right Program," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 92(1), pages 61-78, January.
    4. Steeve Marchand & Guy Lacroix & William Arbour, 2023. "Prison rehabilitation programs and recidivism: evidence from variations in availability," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2023n07, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    5. Escobar, Maria A. & Tobón, Santiago & Vanegas-Arias, Martín, 2023. "Production and persistence of criminal skills: Evidence from a high-crime context," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    6. Maxim N. Massenkoff & Evan K. Rose, 2022. "Family Formation and Crime," NBER Working Papers 30385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Bhuller, Manudeep & Sigstad, Henrik, 2024. "2SLS with multiple treatments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 242(1).
    8. Hollenbach, Johannes & Schmitz, Hendrik & Westphal, Matthias, 2024. "Gene-environment interactions with essential heterogeneity," Ruhr Economic Papers 1105, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    9. Pradhi Aggarwal & Alec Brandon & Ariel Goldszmidt & Justin Holz & John List & Ian Muir & Gregory Sun & Thomas Yu, 2022. "High-frequency location data shows that race affects the likelihood of being stopped and fined for speeding," Natural Field Experiments 00764, The Field Experiments Website.
    10. Albright, Alex, 2022. "No Money Bail, No Problems? Trade-offs in a Pretrial Automatic Release Program," SocArXiv 42pbz, Center for Open Science.
    11. Bhuller, Manudeep & Khoury, Laura & Løken, Katrine V., 2021. "Prison, Mental Health and Family Spillovers," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 19/2021, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
    12. Karun Adusumilli & Francesco Agostinelli & Emilio Borghesan, 2024. "Heterogeneity and Endogenous Compliance: Implications for Scaling Class Size Interventions," Working Papers 2024-007, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    13. Santiago Tobón Zapata & Maria Antonia Escobar Bernal & Martin Vanegas Arias, 2021. "Criminal capital persistence: Evidence from 90,000 inmates’ releases," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 19297, Universidad EAFIT.
    14. William Arbour & Steeve Marchand, 2022. "Parole, Recidivism, and the Role of Supervised Transition," Working Papers tecipa-725, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    15. Martti Kaila, 2024. "How Do People React to Income-Based Fines? Evidence from Speeding Tickets Discontinuities," CESifo Working Paper Series 11064, CESifo.

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