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Variance risk premiums in foreign exchange markets

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  • Ammann, Manuel
  • Buesser, Ralf

Abstract

Based on the theory of static replication of variance swaps we assess the sign and magnitude of variance risk premiums in foreign exchange markets. We find significantly negative risk premiums when realized variance is computed from intraday data with low frequency. As a likely consequence of microstructure effects however, the evidence is ambiguous when realized variance is based on high-frequency data. Common to all estimates, variance risk premiums are highly time-varying and inversely related to the risk-neutral expectation of future variance.

Suggested Citation

  • Ammann, Manuel & Buesser, Ralf, 2013. "Variance risk premiums in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 16-32.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:23:y:2013:i:c:p:16-32
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2013.04.006
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign exchange; Variance risk premium; Variance swap; Intraday data; Risk-neutral expectation; Jump risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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