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Beyond Yield Response: Weather Shocks and Crop Abandonment

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  • Xiaomeng Cui

Abstract

Recent panel estimates of weather effects on crop yields have been central for discussing future food security under climate change, but these estimates only carry limited behavioral response. Growers can adjust harvest decisions when experiencing weather shocks. Using US county-level data on corn and soybeans, I show that harvested ratios, measured by harvested over planted acres, respond to temperature nonlinearly, and they are substantially decreased when temperature exceeds 35°C. Corn harvested ratios are more positively affected by moderate heat and less negatively affected by extreme heat, reflecting growers’ behavioral response incentivized by the higher revenue of corn. Under a 1.5°C warming, neglecting harvested ratio responses can overestimate production loss by more than 10% for corn but underestimates that by more than 15% for soybeans. Evidence of response heterogeneity suggests that market condition and crop insurance further complicate the induced harvest adjustments, and adaptation exists through within-season crop substitution and irrigation.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaomeng Cui, 2020. "Beyond Yield Response: Weather Shocks and Crop Abandonment," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(5), pages 901-932.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jaerec:doi:10.1086/709859
    DOI: 10.1086/709859
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Teng & Yi, Fujin & Liu, Huilin & Wu, Ximing & Zhong, Funing, 2021. "Can Agricultural Mechanization Have a Mitigation Effect on China's Yield Variability?," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315098, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Chekenya, Nixon S., 2023. "Climate-induced crop failure and crop abandonment: What do we know and not know?," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 18(2), October.
    3. Aguilar-Gomez, Sandra & Gutierrez, Emilio & Heres, David & Jaume, David & Tobal, Martin, 2024. "Thermal stress and financial distress: Extreme temperatures and firms’ loan defaults in Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    4. Liu, Ziheng & Lu, Qinan, 2023. "Ozone stress and crop harvesting failure: Evidence from US food production," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    5. Ariel Ortiz-Bobea, 2021. "Climate, Agriculture and Food," Papers 2105.12044, arXiv.org.
    6. Chen, Xiaoguang & Cui, Xiaomeng & Gao, Jing, 2023. "Differentiated agricultural sensitivity and adaptability to rising temperatures across regions and sectors in China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    7. Cui, Xiaomeng & Tang, Qu, 2024. "Extreme heat and rural household adaptation: Evidence from Northeast China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    8. Xiaomeng Cui & Wei Xie, 2022. "Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change through Growing Season Adjustments: Evidence from Corn in China," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(1), pages 249-272, January.
    9. Zhu, Yichen & Ghoshray, Atanu, 2021. "Climate Anomalies and Its Impact on U.S. Corn and Soybean Prices," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315271, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. repec:ags:aaea22:335522 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Cai, Qingyin & Çakır, Metin & Beatty, Timothy & Park, Timothy A., 2022. "Drought and the Specialty Crops Production in California," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322530, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Musa Hasen Ahmed & Wondimagegn Mesfin Tesfaye & Franziska Gassmann, 2023. "Early growing season weather variation, expectation formation and agricultural land allocation decisions in Ethiopia," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(1), pages 255-272, February.
    13. Liu, Ziheng & Lu, Qinan, 2024. "Carbon dioxide fertilization, carbon neutrality, and food security," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    14. Schmitt, Jonas & Offermann, Frank & Söder, Mareike & Frühauf, Cathleen & Finger, Robert, 2022. "Extreme weather events cause significant crop yield losses at the farm level in German agriculture," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    15. Christopher N. Boyer & Eunchun Park & Seong D. Yun, 2023. "Corn and soybean prevented planting acres response to weather," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(2), pages 970-983, June.
    16. repec:ags:aaea22:335508 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Cui, Xiaomeng & Gafarov, Bulat & Ghanem, Dalia & Kuffner, Todd, 2024. "On model selection criteria for climate change impact studies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 239(1).

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