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Contrast Effects in Sequential Decisions: Evidence from Speed Dating

Author

Listed:
  • Saurabh Bhargava

    (Carnegie Mellon University)

  • Ray Fisman

    (Columbia University)

Abstract

We provide an empirical test of contrast effects—a bias where a decision maker perceives information in contrast to what preceded it—in the quasi-experimental context of speed dating decisions. We document that prior partner attractiveness reduces the subsequent likelihood of an affirmative dating decision. This relationship is confined to recent interactions, consistent with a perceptual error, but not learning or the presence of a quota in affirmative responses. The contrast effect is driven almost entirely by male evaluators. Additional evidence documents the effect's linearity with respect to prior partner attractiveness, its amplification for partners of moderate attractiveness, and its partial attenuation with accumulated experience. © 2014 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Suggested Citation

  • Saurabh Bhargava & Ray Fisman, 2014. "Contrast Effects in Sequential Decisions: Evidence from Speed Dating," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(3), pages 444-457, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:96:y:2014:i:3:p:444-457
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel J. Benjamin, 2018. "Errors in Probabilistic Reasoning and Judgment Biases," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_023, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    2. Daniel L. Chen & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Kelly Shue, 2016. "Decision Making Under the Gambler’s Fallacy: Evidence from Asylum Judges, Loan Officers, and Baseball Umpires," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(3), pages 1181-1242.
    3. Claudine Desrieux & Romain Espinosa & Michael Visser, 2022. "Simultaneous Decision Making of Juries: Evidence From the Paris Labor Court," Working Papers hal-04104190, HAL.
    4. Samuel M. Hartzmark & Kelly Shue, 2017. "A Tough Act to Follow: Contrast Effects In Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 23883, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Daniel Chen & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Kelly Shue, 2016. "Decision-Making under the Gambler's Fallacy: Evidence from Asylum Judges, Loan Officers, and Baseball Umpires," NBER Working Papers 22026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Holger Herz & Dmitry Taubinsky, 2018. "What Makes a Price Fair? An Experimental Study of Transaction Experience and Endogenous Fairness Views," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 316-352.
    7. Elhorst, Paul & Faems, Dries, 2021. "Evaluating proposals in innovation contests: Exploring negative scoring spillovers in the absence of a strict evaluation sequence," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(4).
    8. Wang, Kai, 2022. "Approval with frames," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    9. Claudine Desrieux & Romain Espinosa & Michael Visser, 2024. "Does Exposure to Concurrent Cases Affect Judicial Decisions? Evidence from the Paris Labor Court," Working Papers 2024-09, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    10. Gagnon-Bartsch, Tristan & Bushong, Benjamin, 2022. "Learning with misattribution of reference dependence," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    11. Jost, Ramona, 2020. "Persistence of commuting habits: Context effects in Germany," IAB-Discussion Paper 202014, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    12. Holger Herz & Dmitry Taubinsky, 2016. "What Makes a Price Fair? An Experimental Analysis of Transaction Experience and Endogenous Fairness Views," NBER Working Papers 22728, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    contrast effects; bias; speed dating;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles

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