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Why Kill The Golden Goose? A Political-Economy Model Of Export Taxation

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  • Margaret McMillan

Abstract

Why do governments tax exports at rates that are ultimately self-defeating? An answer may lie in the time-inconsistent nature of a low-tax policy. Using a dynamic model of export taxation, I show that the sustainability of a low-tax policy depends on three variables: the ratio of sunk costs to total costs, how heavily future export revenue is discounted, and expected future export earnings. Using data on taxation, leadership duration, and profitability, I test this theory for 32 countries and six crops from Sub-Saharan Africa. These three variables are statistically and economically relevant predictors of tax regime. 2000 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Suggested Citation

  • Margaret McMillan, 2001. "Why Kill The Golden Goose? A Political-Economy Model Of Export Taxation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(1), pages 170-184, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:83:y:2001:i:1:p:170-184
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    Cited by:

    1. Foellmi, Reto & Oechslin, Manuel, 2010. "Market imperfections, wealth inequality, and the distribution of trade gains," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 15-25, May.
    2. Chih Ming Tan, 2010. "No one true path: uncovering the interplay between geography, institutions, and fractionalization in economic development," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(7), pages 1100-1127, November/.
    3. repec:nbr:nberch:13373 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Margaret S. McMillan & William A. Masters, 2000. "Africa's Growth Trap: A Political-Economy Model of Taxation, R&D and Investment," CID Working Papers 50A, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    5. Gourdon, Julien & Monjon, Stéphanie & Poncet, Sandra, 2016. "Trade policy and industrial policy in China: What motivates public authorities to apply restrictions on exports?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 105-120.
    6. Schulz, Nicolai, 2020. "The politics of export restrictions: A panel data analysis of African commodity processing industries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    7. Jaime de Melo, 2012. "Trade in a 'Green Growth' Development Strategy Global Scale Issues and Challenges," Working Papers 2012.47, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    8. Kym Anderson & Gordon Rausser & Johan Swinnen, 2013. "Political Economy of Public Policies: Insights from Distortions to Agricultural and Food Markets," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(2), pages 423-477, June.
    9. Souleymane Soumahoro, 2014. "Export Taxes and Consumption: A �Natural Experiment� from C�te d'Ivoire," HiCN Working Papers 182, Households in Conflict Network.
    10. Floribert Ngaruko, 2003. "Agricultural Export Performance in Africa: Elements of comparison with Asia," Working Papers 03-09, Agricultural and Development Economics Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO - ESA).
    11. Xinshen Diao & Margaret McMillan & Samuel Wangwe, 2018. "Agricultural Labour Productivity and Industrialisation: Lessons for Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 27(1), pages 28-65.
    12. Margaret S. McMillan & William A. Masters & Harounan Kazianga, 2011. "Rural Demography, Public Services and Land Rights in Africa: A Village-Level Analysis in Burkina Faso," NBER Working Papers 17718, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Gawande, Kishore & Hoekman, Bernard, 2009. "Why Governments Tax or Subsidize Trade: Evidence from Agriculture," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper Series 50300, World Bank.
    14. repec:lic:licosd:32312 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Kazianga, Harounan & Masters, William A. & McMillan, Margaret S., 2014. "Disease control, demographic change and institutional development in Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 313-326.
    16. de Melo, Jaime & Cadot, Olivier & Dutoit, Laure, 2006. "The Elimination of Madagascar's Vanilla Marketing Board, Ten Years On," CEPR Discussion Papers 5548, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Jaime DE MELO & Marcelo OLARREAGA, 2017. "Trade Related Institutions and Development," Working Papers P199, FERDI.
    18. Olga Solleder, 2013. "Panel Export Taxes (PET) Dataset: New Data on Export Tax Rates," IHEID Working Papers 07-2013, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    19. Matthew DiGiuseppe & Patrick E. Shea, 2016. "Borrowed Time: Sovereign Finance, Regime Type, and Leader Survival," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 342-367, November.
    20. Margaret S. McMillan & William A. Masters & Harounan Kazianga, 2014. "Demographic Pressure and Institutional Change: Village-Level Response to Rural Population Growth in Burkina Faso," NBER Chapters, in: African Successes, Volume I: Government and Institutions, pages 103-143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Kym Anderson, 2016. "Agricultural Trade, Policy Reforms, and Global Food Security," Palgrave Studies in Agricultural Economics and Food Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-137-46925-0, December.
    22. Richard M. Auty, 2014. "The resource curse and sustainable development," Chapters, in: Giles Atkinson & Simon Dietz & Eric Neumayer & Matthew Agarwala (ed.), Handbook of Sustainable Development, chapter 17, pages 267-278, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    23. Thorsten Janus, 2023. "Technology adoption in autocratic economies: The role of fiscal capacity," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 70(4), pages 355-371, September.

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