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VAT Notches, Voluntary Registration, and Bunching: Theory and U.K. Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Li Liu

    (International Monetary Fund and Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation)

  • Ben Lockwood

    (University of Warwick, Oxford CBT, and CEPR)

  • Miguel Almunia

    (Colegio Universitario de Estudios Financieros (CUNEF), CEPR, CAGE, and Oxford CBT)

  • Eddy H. F. Tam

    (Oxford CBT)

Abstract

Using administrative tax records for U.K. businesses, we document both bunching in annual turnover below the VAT registration threshold and persistent voluntary registration by almost half of the firms below the threshold. We develop a conceptual framework that can simultaneously explain these two apparently conflicting facts. The framework also predicts that higher intermediate input shares, lower product-market competition, and a lower share of business to consumer sales lead to voluntary registration. The predictions are exactly the opposite for bunching. We test the theory using linked VAT and corporation tax records from 2004 to 2014, finding empirical support for these predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Li Liu & Ben Lockwood & Miguel Almunia & Eddy H. F. Tam, 2021. "VAT Notches, Voluntary Registration, and Bunching: Theory and U.K. Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(1), pages 151-164, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:103:y:2021:i:1:p:151-164
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    Cited by:

    1. Asatryan, Zareh & Peichl, Andreas, 2016. "Responses of firms to tax, administrative and accounting rules: Evidence from Armenia," ZEW Discussion Papers 16-065, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    2. Asatryan, Zareh & Gomtsyan, David, 2020. "The incidence of VAT evasion," ZEW Discussion Papers 20-027, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    3. Cui, Wei & Hicks, Jeffrey & Xing, Jing, 2022. "Cash on the table? Imperfect take-up of tax incentives and firm investment behavior," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    4. HOSONO Kaoru & HOTEI Masaki & MIYAKAWA Daisuke, 2019. "Size-dependent VAT, Compliance Costs, and Firm Growth," Discussion papers 19041, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    5. Tian, Binbin & Lin, Chao & Zhang, Wenwen & Feng, Chen, 2022. "Tax Incentives, On-the-job Training, and Human Capital Accumulation: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    6. Nascimento, Marcos & Mattos, Enlinson, 2023. "Do lower taxes reduce the size of the firms? Evidence from micro-entrepreneurs in Brazil," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    7. Adhikari, Bibek & Alm, James & Harris, Timothy F., 2021. "Small business tax compliance under third-party reporting," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    8. Katharina Pfeil & Matthias Kasper & Sarah Necker & Lars P. Feld, 2024. "Tax System Design, Tax Reform, and Labor Supply," CESifo Working Paper Series 11350, CESifo.
    9. Keuschnigg, Christian & Johs, Julian & Stevens, Jacob, 2021. "Consolidating the Covid Debt," CEPR Discussion Papers 16846, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Li Liu & Ben Lockwood & Miguel Almunia & Eddy H. F. Tam, 2021. "VAT Notches, Voluntary Registration, and Bunching: Theory and U.K. Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(1), pages 151-164, March.
    11. Francesco Alosa, 2023. "Estimating the Elasticity of Turnover from Bunching: Preferential Tax Regimes for Solo Self-employed in Italy," Working Papers wp1186, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    12. Miguel Almunia & Jarkko Harju & Kaisa Kotakorpi & Janne Tukiainen & Jouko Verho, 2019. "Expanding access to administrative data: the case of tax authorities in Finland and the UK," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 26(3), pages 661-676, June.
    13. Drahomir Klimsa & Robert Ullmann, 2023. "Threshold-dependent tax enforcement and the size distribution of firms: evidence from Germany," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(4), pages 1002-1035, August.
    14. Zhao, Zhiqi, 2022. "The optimal sales threshold separating taxpayers by size in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    15. Wu, Jingwen & Zhang, Tong & Liao, Hua, 2024. "Fuel economy standards: Regulatory loopholes and firms’ heterogeneous responses," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    16. Zanoni, Wladimir & Carrillo Maldonado, Paul A. & Pantano, Juan & Chuquimarca, Nicolás, 2024. "Irrational Bunching? Tax Regimes, Brackets, and Taxpayer Behaviors," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13582, Inter-American Development Bank.
    17. Feng Wei & Jean‐François Wen, 2024. "Designing turnover taxes in countries with large informal sectors," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(2), pages 528-555, May.
    18. Dawoon Jung, 2024. "The response of small firms to VAT incentive: evidence from South Korea," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 51(2), pages 481-499, May.
    19. Athiphat Muthitacharoen & Wonma Wanichthaworn & Trongwut Burong, 2021. "VAT threshold and small business behavior: evidence from Thai tax returns," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(5), pages 1242-1275, October.
    20. Joel Slemrod & Tejaswi Velayudhan, 2022. "The VAT at 100: A Retrospective Survey and Agenda for Future Research," Public Finance Review, , vol. 50(1), pages 4-32, January.
    21. Kaoru Hosono & Masaki Hotei & Daisuke Miyakawa, 2024. "The interaction of a size-dependent tax policy and financial frictions: evidence from a tax reform in Japan," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 1293-1320, October.
    22. M. Martin Boyer & Philippe d'Astous, 2023. "Tax compliance and firm response to electronic sales monitoring," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(4), pages 1430-1468, November.
    23. Irene Di Marzio & Sauro Mocetti & Enrico Rubolino, 2024. "The market externalities of tax evasion," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1467, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • H32 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Firm

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