IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/tpr/restat/v103y2021i1p151-164.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

VAT Notches, Voluntary Registration, and Bunching: Theory and U.K. Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Li Liu

    (International Monetary Fund and Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation)

  • Ben Lockwood

    (University of Warwick, Oxford CBT, and CEPR)

  • Miguel Almunia

    (Colegio Universitario de Estudios Financieros (CUNEF), CEPR, CAGE, and Oxford CBT)

  • Eddy H. F. Tam

    (Oxford CBT)

Abstract

Using administrative tax records for U.K. businesses, we document both bunching in annual turnover below the VAT registration threshold and persistent voluntary registration by almost half of the firms below the threshold. We develop a conceptual framework that can simultaneously explain these two apparently conflicting facts. The framework also predicts that higher intermediate input shares, lower product-market competition, and a lower share of business to consumer sales lead to voluntary registration. The predictions are exactly the opposite for bunching. We test the theory using linked VAT and corporation tax records from 2004 to 2014, finding empirical support for these predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Li Liu & Ben Lockwood & Miguel Almunia & Eddy H. F. Tam, 2021. "VAT Notches, Voluntary Registration, and Bunching: Theory and U.K. Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(1), pages 151-164, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:103:y:2021:i:1:p:151-164
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/rest_a_00884
    Download Restriction: Access to PDF is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rauhanen, Timo & Harju, Jarkko & Matikka, Tuomas, 2016. "The effects of size-based regulation on small firms: evidence from VAT threshold," Working Papers 75, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Li Liu & Ben Lockwood & Miguel Almunia & Eddy H. F. Tam, 2021. "VAT Notches, Voluntary Registration, and Bunching: Theory and U.K. Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(1), pages 151-164, March.
    3. Raj Chetty & John N. Friedman & Tore Olsen & Luigi Pistaferri, 2011. "Adjustment Costs, Firm Responses, and Micro vs. Macro Labor Supply Elasticities: Evidence from Danish Tax Records," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(2), pages 749-804.
    4. Wojciech Kopczuk & David Munroe, 2015. "Mansion Tax: The Effect of Transfer Taxes on the Residential Real Estate Market," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 214-257, May.
    5. Harju, Jarkko & Matikka, Tuomas & Rauhanen, Timo, 2019. "Compliance costs vs. tax incentives: Why do entrepreneurs respond to size-based regulations?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 139-164.
    6. Almunia, Miguel & Guceri, Irem & Lockwood, Ben & Scharf, Kimberley, 2020. "More giving or more givers? The effects of tax incentives on charitable donations in the UK," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    7. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2005. "Simple solutions to the initial conditions problem in dynamic, nonlinear panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 39-54, January.
    8. Emmanuel Saez, 2010. "Do Taxpayers Bunch at Kink Points?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 180-212, August.
    9. Miguel Almunia & David Lopez-Rodriguez, 2018. "Under the Radar: The Effects of Monitoring Firms on Tax Compliance," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-38, February.
    10. Michael Carlos Best & Anne Brockmeyer & Henrik Jacobsen Kleven & Johannes Spinnewijn & Mazhar Waseem, 2015. "Production versus Revenue Efficiency with Limited Tax Capacity: Theory and Evidence from Pakistan," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 123(6), pages 1311-1355.
    11. Ravi Kanbur & Michael Keen, 2014. "Thresholds, informality, and partitions of compliance," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 21(4), pages 536-559, August.
    12. Emran, M. Shahe & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2005. "On selective indirect tax reform in developing countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(4), pages 599-623, April.
    13. Keen, Michael & Mintz, Jack, 2004. "The optimal threshold for a value-added tax," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(3-4), pages 559-576, March.
    14. Onji, Kazuki, 2009. "The response of firms to eligibility thresholds: Evidence from the Japanese value-added tax," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(5-6), pages 766-775, June.
    15. Bachas,Pierre Jean & Soto,Mauricio, 2018. "Not(ch) your average tax system : corporate taxation under weak enforcement," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8524, The World Bank.
    16. Vesal, Mohammad, 2014. "Optimization Frictions in the Choice of UK Flat Rate Scheme of VAT," MPRA Paper 101017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Pierre Bachas & Mauricio Soto, 2021. "Corporate Taxation under Weak Enforcement," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 36-71, November.
    18. Áureo de Paula & Jose A. Scheinkman, 2010. "Value-Added Taxes, Chain Effects, and Informality," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 195-221, October.
    19. Keen, Michael & Lockwood, Ben, 2010. "The value added tax: Its causes and consequences," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 138-151, July.
    20. Michael Carlos Best & Henrik Jacobsen Kleven, 2018. "Housing Market Responses to Transaction Taxes: Evidence From Notches and Stimulus in the U.K," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(1), pages 157-193.
    21. Henrik J. Kleven & Mazhar Waseem, 2013. "Using Notches to Uncover Optimization Frictions and Structural Elasticities: Theory and Evidence from Pakistan," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(2), pages 669-723.
    22. Michael P. Devereux & Li Liu & Simon Loretz, 2014. "The Elasticity of Corporate Taxable Income: New Evidence from UK Tax Records," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 19-53, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Asatryan, Zareh & Gomtsyan, David, 2020. "The incidence of VAT evasion," ZEW Discussion Papers 20-027, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    2. HOSONO Kaoru & HOTEI Masaki & MIYAKAWA Daisuke, 2019. "Size-dependent VAT, Compliance Costs, and Firm Growth," Discussion papers 19041, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. Nascimento, Marcos & Mattos, Enlinson, 2023. "Do lower taxes reduce the size of the firms? Evidence from micro-entrepreneurs in Brazil," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    4. Katharina Pfeil & Matthias Kasper & Sarah Necker & Lars P. Feld, 2024. "Tax System Design, Tax Reform, and Labor Supply," CESifo Working Paper Series 11350, CESifo.
    5. Feng Wei & Jean‐François Wen, 2024. "Designing turnover taxes in countries with large informal sectors," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(2), pages 528-555, May.
    6. Kaoru Hosono & Masaki Hotei & Daisuke Miyakawa, 2024. "The interaction of a size-dependent tax policy and financial frictions: evidence from a tax reform in Japan," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 1293-1320, October.
    7. M. Martin Boyer & Philippe d'Astous, 2023. "Tax compliance and firm response to electronic sales monitoring," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(4), pages 1430-1468, November.
    8. Miguel Almunia & Jarkko Harju & Kaisa Kotakorpi & Janne Tukiainen & Jouko Verho, 2019. "Expanding access to administrative data: the case of tax authorities in Finland and the UK," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 26(3), pages 661-676, June.
    9. Li Liu & Ben Lockwood & Miguel Almunia & Eddy H. F. Tam, 2021. "VAT Notches, Voluntary Registration, and Bunching: Theory and U.K. Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(1), pages 151-164, March.
    10. Zhao, Zhiqi, 2022. "The optimal sales threshold separating taxpayers by size in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    11. Christian Keuschnigg & Julian Johs & Jacob Stevens, 2021. "Consolidating the Covid Debt," CESifo Working Paper Series 9497, CESifo.
    12. Cui, Wei & Hicks, Jeffrey & Xing, Jing, 2022. "Cash on the table? Imperfect take-up of tax incentives and firm investment behavior," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    13. Athiphat Muthitacharoen & Wonma Wanichthaworn & Trongwut Burong, 2021. "VAT threshold and small business behavior: evidence from Thai tax returns," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(5), pages 1242-1275, October.
    14. Tian, Binbin & Lin, Chao & Zhang, Wenwen & Feng, Chen, 2022. "Tax Incentives, On-the-job Training, and Human Capital Accumulation: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    15. Adhikari, Bibek & Alm, James & Harris, Timothy F., 2021. "Small business tax compliance under third-party reporting," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    16. Francesco Alosa, 2023. "Estimating the Elasticity of Turnover from Bunching: Preferential Tax Regimes for Solo Self-employed in Italy," Working Papers wp1186, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    17. Wu, Jingwen & Zhang, Tong & Liao, Hua, 2024. "Fuel economy standards: Regulatory loopholes and firms’ heterogeneous responses," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    18. Zanoni, Wladimir & Carrillo Maldonado, Paul A. & Pantano, Juan & Chuquimarca, Nicolás, 2024. "Irrational Bunching? Tax Regimes, Brackets, and Taxpayer Behaviors," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13582, Inter-American Development Bank.
    19. Joel Slemrod & Tejaswi Velayudhan, 2022. "The VAT at 100: A Retrospective Survey and Agenda for Future Research," Public Finance Review, , vol. 50(1), pages 4-32, January.
    20. Irene Di Marzio & Sauro Mocetti & Enrico Rubolino, 2024. "The market externalities of tax evasion," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1467, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    21. Asatryan, Zareh & Peichl, Andreas, 2016. "Responses of firms to tax, administrative and accounting rules: Evidence from Armenia," ZEW Discussion Papers 16-065, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    22. Drahomir Klimsa & Robert Ullmann, 2023. "Threshold-dependent tax enforcement and the size distribution of firms: evidence from Germany," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(4), pages 1002-1035, August.
    23. Dawoon Jung, 2024. "The response of small firms to VAT incentive: evidence from South Korea," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 51(2), pages 481-499, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Asatryan, Zareh & Peichl, Andreas, 2016. "Responses of firms to tax, administrative and accounting rules: Evidence from Armenia," ZEW Discussion Papers 16-065, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    2. Drahomir Klimsa & Robert Ullmann, 2023. "Threshold-dependent tax enforcement and the size distribution of firms: evidence from Germany," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(4), pages 1002-1035, August.
    3. Miguel Almunia & David Lopez-Rodriguez, 2018. "Under the Radar: The Effects of Monitoring Firms on Tax Compliance," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-38, February.
    4. Athiphat Muthitacharoen & Wonma Wanichthaworn & Trongwut Burong, 2021. "VAT threshold and small business behavior: evidence from Thai tax returns," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(5), pages 1242-1275, October.
    5. Wian Boonzaaier & Jarkko Harju & Tuomas Matikka & Jukka Pirttilä, 2019. "How do small firms respond to tax schedule discontinuities? Evidence from South African tax registers," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 26(5), pages 1104-1136, October.
    6. Li Liu & Ben Lockwood, 2015. "VAT notches," Working Papers 1506, Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation.
    7. Harju, Jarkko & Matikka, Tuomas & Rauhanen, Timo, 2019. "Compliance costs vs. tax incentives: Why do entrepreneurs respond to size-based regulations?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 139-164.
    8. Philippe Aghion & Maxime Gravoueille & Matthieu Lequien & Stefanie Stantcheva, 2017. "Tax Simplicity or Simplicity of Evasion? Evidence from Self-Employment Taxes in France," NBER Working Papers 24049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Kaoru Hosono & Masaki Hotei & Daisuke Miyakawa, 2024. "The interaction of a size-dependent tax policy and financial frictions: evidence from a tax reform in Japan," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 1293-1320, October.
    10. Jarkko Harju & Tuomas Matikka & Timo Rauhanen, 2016. "The Effects of Size-Based Regulation on Small Firms: Evidence from VAT Threshold," CESifo Working Paper Series 6115, CESifo.
    11. Irene Di Marzio & Sauro Mocetti & Enrico Rubolino, 2024. "The market externalities of tax evasion," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1467, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Zhao, Zhiqi, 2022. "The optimal sales threshold separating taxpayers by size in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    13. Brockmeyer,Anne & Hernandez,Marco, 2016. "Taxation, information, and withholding : evidence from Costa Rica," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7600, The World Bank.
    14. Marx Benjamin M., 2024. "Dynamic Bunching Estimation with Panel Data," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 225-249.
    15. Bussy, Adrien, 2023. "Corporate tax evasion: Evidence from international trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    16. Wian Boonzaaier & Jarkko Harju & Tuomas Matikka & Jukka Pirttilä, 2019. "How do small firms respond to tax schedule discontinuities? Evidence from South African tax registers," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 26(5), pages 1104-1136, October.
    17. Bertanha, Marinho & McCallum, Andrew H. & Seegert, Nathan, 2023. "Better bunching, nicer notching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
    18. Lu, Yi & Shi, Julie & Yang, Wanyu, 2019. "Expenditure response to health insurance policies: Evidence from kinks in rural China," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    19. Ben Lockwood, 2020. "Malas notches," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 27(4), pages 779-804, August.
    20. Pablo Gutierrez Cubillos, 2022. "Dividend tax credits and the elasticity of taxable income: evidence from small businesses," Working Papers 630, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • H32 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Firm

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:103:y:2021:i:1:p:151-164. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: The MIT Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://direct.mit.edu/journals .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.