IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/tou/journl/v51y2020p31-43.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Relocation, Retreat, and the Rising Sea Level: A Simulation of Aggregate Outcomes in Escambia County, Florida

Author

Listed:
  • Yong Jee KIM

    (Korea Environment Institute)

  • Brigitte WALDORF

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, USA)

  • Juan SESMERO

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, USA)

Abstract

Using data for a flood-prone county in Florida, this paper analyzes the effects of sea-level rise on migration decisions and destination choices. The data are retrieved from parcel-level tax records, utilizing a name-matching procedure, enriched with synthetic population techniques to generate salient socio-economic attributes of movers and stayers. We find that in the years following a major flood event, households with high perceived risks have elevated migration propensities. We also find that households making ad hoc decisions on retreating from rising waters will in fact stay close to the hazard prone areas. This may eventually necessitate a further retreat, including a costly move.

Suggested Citation

  • Yong Jee KIM & Brigitte WALDORF & Juan SESMERO, 2020. "Relocation, Retreat, and the Rising Sea Level: A Simulation of Aggregate Outcomes in Escambia County, Florida," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 51, pages 31-43.
    • Handle: RePEc:tou:journl:v:51:y:2020:p:31-43
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://regionetdeveloppement.univ-tln.fr/wp-content/uploads/3-Waldorf-formate.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Scott A. Kulp & Benjamin H. Strauss, 2019. "New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Robin Lovelace & Mark Birkin & Dimitris Ballas & Eveline van Leeuwen, 2015. "Evaluating the Performance of Iterative Proportional Fitting for Spatial Microsimulation: New Tests for an Established Technique," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 18(2), pages 1-21.
    3. Scott A. Kulp & Benjamin H. Strauss, 2019. "Author Correction: New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-2, December.
    4. Miyuki Hino & Christopher B. Field & Katharine J. Mach, 2017. "Managed retreat as a response to natural hazard risk," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(5), pages 364-370, May.
    5. Jessica Eise & Kenneth Alan Foster (ed.), 2018. "How to Feed the World," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-1-61091-885-5, December.
    6. Mathew E. Hauer, 2017. "Migration induced by sea-level rise could reshape the US population landscape," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(5), pages 321-325, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lena Reimann & Bryan Jones & Nora Bieker & Claudia Wolff & Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts & Athanasios T. Vafeidis, 2023. "Exploring spatial feedbacks between adaptation policies and internal migration patterns due to sea-level rise," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    2. D. J. Rasmussen & Scott Kulp & Robert E. Kopp & Michael Oppenheimer & Benjamin H. Strauss, 2022. "Popular extreme sea level metrics can better communicate impacts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-17, February.
    3. Clinton J. Andrews, 2020. "Toward a research agenda on climate‐related migration," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 24(2), pages 331-341, April.
    4. Mathew E. Hauer & Dean Hardy & Scott A. Kulp & Valerie Mueller & David J. Wrathall & Peter U. Clark, 2021. "Assessing population exposure to coastal flooding due to sea level rise," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    5. Luke J. Jenkins & Ivan D. Haigh & Paula Camus & Douglas Pender & Jenny Sansom & Rob Lamb & Hachem Kassem, 2023. "The temporal clustering of storm surge, wave height, and high sea level exceedances around the UK coastline," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(2), pages 1761-1797, January.
    6. Alberto Alesina & Marco Tabellini, 2024. "The Political Effects of Immigration: Culture or Economics?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 5-46, March.
    7. Xueyang Liu & Xiaoxing Liu, 2021. "Can Financial Development Curb Carbon Emissions? Empirical Test Based on Spatial Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-19, October.
    8. Stephanie A. Siehr & Minmin Sun & José Luis Aranda Nucamendi, 2022. "Blue‐green infrastructure for climate resilience and urban multifunctionality in Chinese cities," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(5), September.
    9. Michaël Goujon & Olivier Santoni & Laurent Wagner, 2022. "The Physical Vulnerability to Climate Change Index computed at the sub-national level," Working Papers hal-03672203, HAL.
    10. Julien Boulange & Yukiko Hirabayashi & Masahiro Tanoue & Toshinori Yamada, 2023. "Quantitative evaluation of flood damage methodologies under a portfolio of adaptation scenarios," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(3), pages 1855-1879, September.
    11. Hasselwander, Marc & Bigotte, Joao F. & Antunes, Antonio P. & Sigua, Ricardo G., 2022. "Towards sustainable transport in developing countries: Preliminary findings on the demand for mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) in Metro Manila," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 501-518.
    12. Aishwarya Narendr & S. Vinay & Bharath Haridas Aithal & Sutapa Das, 2022. "Multi-dimensional parametric coastal flood risk assessment at a regional scale using GIS," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(7), pages 9569-9597, July.
    13. Amar Causevic & Matthew LoCastro & Dharish David & Sujeetha Selvakkumaran & Ã…sa Gren, 2021. "Financing resilience efforts to confront future urban and sea-level rise flooding: Are coastal megacities in Association of Southeast Asian Nations doing enough?," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 48(5), pages 989-1010, June.
    14. Katerina Trepekli & Thomas Balstrøm & Thomas Friborg & Bjarne Fog & Albert N. Allotey & Richard Y. Kofie & Lasse Møller-Jensen, 2022. "UAV-borne, LiDAR-based elevation modelling: a method for improving local-scale urban flood risk assessment," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(1), pages 423-451, August.
    15. Arun Rana & Qinhan Zhu & Annette Detken & Karina Whalley & Christelle Castet, 2022. "Strengthening climate-resilient development and transformation in Viet Nam," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 1-23, January.
    16. Bera, Subhas & Das, Arup & Mazumder, Taraknath, 2021. "Spatial dimensions of dichotomous adaptive responses to natural hazards in coastal districts of West Bengal, India," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    17. Jingfan Zhang & Shuchai Gan & Pingjian Yang & Jinge Zhou & Xingyun Huang & Han Chen & Hua He & Neil Saintilan & Christian J. Sanders & Faming Wang, 2024. "A global assessment of mangrove soil organic carbon sources and implications for blue carbon credit," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-7, December.
    18. Laura Bakkensen & Quynh Nguyen & Toan Phan & Paul Schuler, 2023. "Charting the Course: How Does Information about Sea Level Rise Affect the Willingness to Migrate?," Working Paper 23-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    19. Lomborg, Bjorn, 2020. "Welfare in the 21st century: Increasing development, reducing inequality, the impact of climate change, and the cost of climate policies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    20. Mohamed A. Abdelhafez & Hussam N. Mahmoud & Bruce R. Ellingwood, 2024. "Adjusting to the reality of sea level rise: reshaping coastal communities through resilience-informed adaptation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(7), pages 1-20, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sea-level rise ; Retreat ; Migration propensities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tou:journl:v:51:y:2020:p:31-43. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christophe Van Huffel (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/letlnfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.