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Uncertain rationality, depth of reasoning and robustness in games with incomplete information

Author

Listed:
  • Germano, Fabrizio

    (Department of Economics, Universitat Pompeu Fabra)

  • Weinstein, Jonathan

    (Department of Economics, Washington University in St. Louis)

  • Zuazo-Garin, Peio

    (University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU))

Abstract

Predictions under common knowledge of payoffs may differ from those under arbitrarily, but finitely, many orders of mutual knowledge; Rubinstein's (1989)Email game is a seminal example. Weinstein and Yildiz (2007) showed that the discontinuity in the example generalizes: for all types with multiple rationalizable (ICR) actions, there exist similar types with unique rationalizable action. This paper studies how a wide class of departures from common belief in rationality impact Weinstein and Yildiz's discontinuity. We weaken ICR to ICRλ, where λ is a sequence whose term λn is the probability players attach to (n- 1)th-order belief in rationality. We find that Weinstein and Yildiz's discontinuity remains when λn is above an appropriate threshold for all n, but fails when λn converges to 0. That is, if players' confidence in mutual rationality persists at high orders, the discontinuity persists, but if confidence vanishes at high orders, the discontinuity vanishes.

Suggested Citation

  • Germano, Fabrizio & Weinstein, Jonathan & Zuazo-Garin, Peio, 2020. "Uncertain rationality, depth of reasoning and robustness in games with incomplete information," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 15(1), January.
    • Handle: RePEc:the:publsh:2734
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Cerigioni & Fabrizio Germano & Pedro Rey-Biel & Peio Zuazo-Garin, 2019. "Higher Orders of Rationality and the Structure of Games," Working Papers 1120, Barcelona School of Economics.
    2. Fabrizio Germano & Peio Zuazo-Garin, 2017. "Bounded rationality and correlated equilibria," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 46(3), pages 595-629, August.
    3. Atsushi Kajii & Stephen Morris, 2020. "Notes on “refinements and higher order beliefs”," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 71(1), pages 35-41, January.
    4. Aviad Heifetz, 2019. "Robust multiplicity with (transfinitely) vanishing naiveté," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 48(4), pages 1277-1296, December.
    5. Evan Piermont & Peio Zuazo-Garin, 2021. "Heterogeneously Perceived Incentives in Dynamic Environments: Rationalization, Robustness and Unique Selections," Papers 2105.06772, arXiv.org.
    6. Chen, Yi-Chun & Takahashi, Satoru & Xiong, Siyang, 2022. "Robust refinement of rationalizability with arbitrary payoff uncertainty," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 485-504.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Robustness; rationalizability; bounded rationality; incomplete information; belief hierarchies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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