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Forecasting Runoff Triangles

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  • Piet de Jong

Abstract

This paper deals with the methodology of liability forecasting using the runoff triangle data. Techniques are based on time series models and methods that facilitate the calculation of forecast distributions and the assessment of model fit. The models deal with correlation within triangles. Correlations are critical to proper reserving. The output of the methodology is the complete shape of the liability distribution. Methods are applied to a well-known runoff triangle and results compared to those from previous studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Piet de Jong, 2006. "Forecasting Runoff Triangles," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 28-38.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:uaajxx:v:10:y:2006:i:2:p:28-38
    DOI: 10.1080/10920277.2006.10596246
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    Cited by:

    1. Avanzi, Benjamin & Taylor, Greg & Vu, Phuong Anh & Wong, Bernard, 2020. "A multivariate evolutionary generalised linear model framework with adaptive estimation for claims reserving," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 50-71.
    2. Nataliya Chukhrova & Arne Johannssen, 2017. "State Space Models and the K alman -Filter in Stochastic Claims Reserving: Forecasting, Filtering and Smoothing," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-23, May.
    3. Nataliya Chukhrova & Arne Johannssen, 2021. "Kalman Filter Learning Algorithms and State Space Representations for Stochastic Claims Reserving," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-5, June.
    4. Leonardo Costa & Adrian Pizzinga, 2020. "State‐space models for predicting IBNR reserve in row‐wise ordered runoff triangles: Calendar year IBNR reserves & tail effects," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 438-448, April.
    5. de Alba, Enrique & Nieto-Barajas, Luis E., 2008. "Claims reserving: A correlated Bayesian model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 368-376, December.
    6. Tsai, Cary Chi-Liang & Kim, Seyeon, 2022. "Model mortality rates using property and casualty insurance reserving methods," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 326-340.
    7. Cadogan, Godfrey, 2010. "Forecasting The Pricing Kernel of IBNR Claims Development In Property-Casualty Insurance," MPRA Paper 23235, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Bohnert, Alexander & Gatzert, Nadine & Kolb, Andreas, 2016. "Assessing inflation risk in non-life insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 86-96.
    9. Portugal, Luís & Pantelous, Athanasios A. & Verrall, Richard, 2021. "Univariate and multivariate claims reserving with Generalized Link Ratios," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 57-67.
    10. Nataliya Chukhrova & Arne Johannssen, 2021. "Stochastic Claims Reserving Methods with State Space Representations: A Review," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-55, November.
    11. Benjamin Avanzi & Gregory Clive Taylor & Phuong Anh Vu & Bernard Wong, 2020. "A multivariate evolutionary generalised linear model framework with adaptive estimation for claims reserving," Papers 2004.06880, arXiv.org.
    12. Helena Jasiulewicz, 2013. "Przestrzeń stanów i filtr Kalmana w teorii ubezpieczeń," Collegium of Economic Analysis Annals, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, issue 31, pages 101-116.

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