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Assessing inflation risk in non-life insurance

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  • Bohnert, Alexander
  • Gatzert, Nadine
  • Kolb, Andreas

Abstract

Inflation risk is of high relevance in non-life insurers’ long-tail business and can have a major impact on claims reserving. In this paper, we empirically study claims inflation with focus on automobile liability insurance based on a data set provided by a large German non-life insurance company. The aim is to obtain empirical insight regarding the drivers of claims inflation risk and its impact on reserving. Toward this end, we use stepwise multiple regression analysis to identify relevant drivers based on economic indices related to health costs and consumer prices, amongst others. We further study the impact of (implicitly and explicitly) predicting calendar year inflation effects on claims reserves using stochastic inflation models. Our results show that drivers for claims inflation can considerably vary for different lines of business and emphasize the importance of explicitly dealing with (stochastic) claims inflation when calculating reserves.

Suggested Citation

  • Bohnert, Alexander & Gatzert, Nadine & Kolb, Andreas, 2016. "Assessing inflation risk in non-life insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 86-96.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:66:y:2016:i:c:p:86-96
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2015.11.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Jean-François Bégin, 2016. "Deflation Risk and Implications for Life Insurers," Risks, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-36, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Separation method; Claims inflation; Regression analysis; Simulation; Vasicek;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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