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Managing the transition to climate stabilization

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  • RICHARD G. RICHELS
  • THOMAS F. RUTHERFORD
  • GEOFFREY J. BLANFORD
  • LEON CLARKE

Abstract

It is becoming increasingly clear that economically efficient climate policies are unlikely to be implemented in the near term. Therefore an analysis is warranted that considers the implications of certain suboptimal transition policies. This analysis constructs a transition scenario based on realistic assumptions about the current trends in policy-making. The transition is examined in the context of varying assumptions about the stringency of the target and the availability of low- or no-carbon energy technologies in the future. In addition to evaluating the effects of suboptimal policies, the transitional analysis offers new insights about the intrinsic uncertainty regarding both the appropriate stabilization target and technology.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard G. Richels & Thomas F. Rutherford & Geoffrey J. Blanford & Leon Clarke, 2007. "Managing the transition to climate stabilization," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(5), pages 409-428, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:tcpoxx:v:7:y:2007:i:5:p:409-428
    DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2007.9685665
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alan Manne & Richard Richels, 1992. "Buying Greenhouse Insurance: The Economic Costs of CO2 Emission Limits," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026213280x, April.
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    1. Durand-Lasserve, Olivier & Pierru, Axel & Smeers, Yves, 2010. "Uncertain long-run emissions targets, CO2 price and global energy transition: A general equilibrium approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 5108-5122, September.
    2. Kessides, Ioannis N., 2014. "Powering Africa׳s sustainable development: The potential role of nuclear energy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(S1), pages 57-70.
    3. McJeon, Haewon C. & Clarke, Leon & Kyle, Page & Wise, Marshall & Hackbarth, Andrew & Bryant, Benjamin P. & Lempert, Robert J., 2011. "Technology interactions among low-carbon energy technologies: What can we learn from a large number of scenarios?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 619-631, July.
    4. Blanford, Geoffrey J., 2009. "R&D investment strategy for climate change," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(Supplemen), pages 27-36.
    5. Richels, Richard G. & Blanford, Geoffrey J., 2008. "The value of technological advance in decarbonizing the U.S. economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 2930-2946, November.
    6. Iyer, Gokul & Hultman, Nathan & Eom, Jiyong & McJeon, Haewon & Patel, Pralit & Clarke, Leon, 2015. "Diffusion of low-carbon technologies and the feasibility of long-term climate targets," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 103-118.
    7. Justin Caron & Markus Ohndorf, 2010. "Irreversibility and Optimal Timing of Climate Policy," IED Working paper 10-14, IED Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich.

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